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NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

techcrunch.com

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Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#131

Post by 6stringmerc »

DonHopkins wrote: post #109
snewman wrote: post #2

Tesla comes off extremely well in this report. For one thing, the 40% statistic cited in the headline appears to be well supported by the NHTSA report (section 5.4) and actually manages to frame the incident in a very positive light: ODI analyzed mileage and airbag deployment data supplied by Tesla for all MY 2014 through 2016 Model S and 2016 Model X vehicles equipped with the Autopilot Technology Package, either in…

The car should immediately pull over and shut down if it detects any activity on the driver's Twitter or Facebook feeds: Social Media Strike Out!

...then fashion a start-up based on "Ownership" of the vehicle and code and sell devices to Tesla owners to over-ride any part of the system they don't like, then profit!

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#133

Post by gravypod »

6stringmerc wrote: post #131
DonHopkins wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The car should immediately pull over and shut down if it detects any activity on the driver's Twitter or Facebook feeds: Social Media Strike Out!

...then fashion a start-up based on "Ownership" of the vehicle and code and sell devices to Tesla owners to over-ride any part of the system they don't like, then profit!

Then sell the customers list to law enforcement to make side money! What a fantastic time to live in SV!

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#134

Post by JoshTriplett »

guelo wrote: post #128
Vik1ng wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just funny that the 40% from Autosteer seem to exactly match with the general AEB safety improvement rate also mentioned in the report... IIHS research shows that AEB systems meeting the commitment would reduce rear-end crashes[emphasis added] by 40 percent. IIHS estimates that by 2025 – the earliest NHTSA believes it could realistically implement a regulatory requirement for AEB – the commitment will prevent 28,000…

Yea, it really doesn't seem like autosteer would avoid that many crashes. All that autosteer does is keep you in your lane on a marked highway. Human errors that autosteer would correct are probably relatively rare, things like distractedly drifting into another lane or falling asleep at the wheel. AEB, on the other hand, helps avoid the most common type of crash, rear end collisions.

Autosteer can also change lanes, and would avoid crashes caused by missing a vehicle in a blind spot. Seems particularly useful on a busy highway, with vehicles in adjacent lanes leaving far too little following distance between each other.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#135

Post by abakker »

gravypod wrote: post #133
6stringmerc wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

...then fashion a start-up based on "Ownership" of the vehicle and code and sell devices to Tesla owners to over-ride any part of the system they don't like, then profit!

Then sell the customers list to law enforcement to make side money! What a fantastic time to live in SV!

Sell the list of those using social media in the car to existing advertisers too. Extra high levels of engagement!

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#136

Post by sangnoir »

mikeash wrote: post #74
Pxtl wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is zero chance I'd stay awake behind the wheel of a level 2 or 3 vehicle.

I've done a few thousand miles with Tesla's Autopilot and I find it to be much easier to stay awake with it than without. Constantly making little adjustments is pretty tiring. Paying attention to the the road and other cars is enough to keep my attention. Your experience may, of course, vary.

I don't know how long your durations on the wheel are - but microsleep[1] is notoriously hard to self-diagnose, even for drivers of non-self-driving cars.

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsleep

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#137

Post by duskwuff »

JBReefer wrote: post #83
r00fus wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need audiobooks or podcasts. Heck, I love taking a conference call while on my commute (handsfree of course) - 80% of it is in the left lane of an interstate.

The left lane is only for passing, and if you are passing >80% of the cars on the road, you are a reckless driver.

> if you are passing >80% of the cars on the road, you are a reckless driver.

Or you are driving at the speed limit on a 2x2 highway used as a trucking corridor. (For example: most of I-5.)

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#138

Post by pps43 »

vvanders wrote: post #19
tehlike wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didnt read the report, but is this measurement done on a a/b testing way? There is usually some data skew/bias when they are done on different time scale.

Same cars pre/post OTA. There was a ~6 month peroid where AP HW was out in the wild but not used.

Confounding factors. For example, crashes can be more likely after sunset or during inclement weather so seasonality can play a role. Or maybe the drivers who had Tesla longer got used to it.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#139

Post by whyileft »

snewman wrote: post #2

Tesla comes off extremely well in this report. For one thing, the 40% statistic cited in the headline appears to be well supported by the NHTSA report (section 5.4) and actually manages to frame the incident in a very positive light: ODI analyzed mileage and airbag deployment data supplied by Tesla for all MY 2014 through 2016 Model S and 2016 Model X vehicles equipped with the Autopilot Technology Package, either in…

> data supplied by Tesla

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#140

Post by andruc »

whyileft wrote: post #139
snewman wrote: post #2

Tesla comes off extremely well in this report. For one thing, the 40% statistic cited in the headline appears to be well supported by the NHTSA report (section 5.4) and actually manages to frame the incident in a very positive light: ODI analyzed mileage and airbag deployment data supplied by Tesla for all MY 2014 through 2016 Model S and 2016 Model X vehicles equipped with the Autopilot Technology Package, either in…

> data supplied by Tesla

Where else could it possibly come from? Tesla is the only one collecting this data.
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