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NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

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Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#81

Post by NoodleIncident »

sxp wrote: post #23

The 40% number isn't very informative. The report has multiple notes about it: ODI analyzed data from crashes of Tesla Model S and Model X vehicles involving airbag deployments that occurred while operating in, or within 15 seconds of transitioning from, Autopilot mode. Some crashes involved impacts from other vehicles striking the Tesla from various directions with little to no warning to the Tesla driver. ODI analy…

I'm not sure that it matters as much as you imply.

Even if the only benefit of Tesla's autosteer is that it makes you more focused in the parts that are actually dangerous, a 40% improvement is still a 40% improvement.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#83

Post by JBReefer »

r00fus wrote: post #66
Pxtl wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is zero chance I'd stay awake behind the wheel of a level 2 or 3 vehicle.

You need audiobooks or podcasts. Heck, I love taking a conference call while on my commute (handsfree of course) - 80% of it is in the left lane of an interstate.

The left lane is only for passing, and if you are passing >80% of the cars on the road, you are a reckless driver.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#84

Post by lamontcg »

Roritharr wrote: post #4
snewman wrote: post #2

Tesla comes off extremely well in this report. For one thing, the 40% statistic cited in the headline appears to be well supported by the NHTSA report (section 5.4) and actually manages to frame the incident in a very positive light: ODI analyzed mileage and airbag deployment data supplied by Tesla for all MY 2014 through 2016 Model S and 2016 Model X vehicles equipped with the Autopilot Technology Package, either in…

I really would like to know the absolute numbers for this reduction. It's really questionable if this would hold up with millions of Teslas on the road in the hands of less wealthy(probably better educated) drivers.

> wealthy (probably better educated) drivers.

You mean drivers like the ones behind the wheel of all the BMWs and Audis that cut me off with no turn signals, speed, make aggressive lane changes, tailgate, and generally act like giant douches because a simple traffic ticket is nothing to their pocketbook while their time == money?

Those people are going to be a hell of a lot safer behind the wheel of an autonomous (level 4) vehicle where they can be on the phone and their laptop as the vehicle obeys the speed limits and safe following distance.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#85

Post by fmihaila »

frgtpsswrdlame wrote: post #75
fmihaila wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because traffic-aware cruise control has existed for years from other car manufactures, and I have seen no data showing that this feature decreases safety.

Perhaps you should be looking for data that shows that traffic-aware cruise control increases or matches safety of human drivers then? Seems strange to just assume one side of the argument if there's no proof either way.

I can rephrase my original comment according to your terms: there is no evidence that TACC reduces safety. That's equivalent to what I said. Do you have evidence to the contrary?

Moreover, if experience showed that TACC reduces safety, NHTSA and its counterparts in other countries would have noticed and put the brakes on it. If you don't think this is a reasonable assumption, so be it.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#86

Post by randomstring »

Waiting for the headline: "Human Fails to Prevent Accident, Outraged Public Calls for Banning of all Human Drivers"

The obsession with perfection in self-driving cars is misplaced, they just need to be demonstrably better than humans.

This is obviously the future.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#87

Post by belltaco »

kolbe wrote: post #16
stale2002 wrote: post #6

Oh, hey, will you look at that. The imperfect, incomplete, beta, level 2 self driving cars that were supposed to be the "dangerous" area of self driving are ALREADY better than human drivers. Can we stop the politics and deploy all the real self driving cars to the road immediately, since the government has proven that even the shitty variety is safer than humans?

on the other hand, i am easily 3 times safer than the average driver, so self driving vehicles would endanger me.

Or perhaps it will make you 40% more safe than you already are?

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#88

Post by stale2002 »

frgtpsswrdlame wrote: post #51
stale2002 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thats like saying "This medical procedure doesn't save lives, it just results in 40% fewer incidents of sudden heart failure".

You should really read the report. It's comparing Tesla TACC to Tesla TACC+Autosteer. Aka the safety increase when going from Level1 to Level2. It doesn't have anything to do with being safer than human drivers.

Level 1 is Human drivers, level 2 is computer "lane assist" and "automated cruise control".

So yes, it is literally human Vs computer driven safety.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#89

Post by frgtpsswrdlame »

zaroth wrote: post #76
frgtpsswrdlame wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually we can't even go that far. >22 The crash rates are for all miles travelled before and after Autopilot installation and are not limited to actual Autopilot use.

Which is exactly how you would want the analysis to be done. Because of course there were no autopilot miles in the before bucket you would be skewing the analysis if you only looked at autopilot miles in the after bucket. What we know is after installing the autopilot feature, accidents with airbag deployments reduced 40%. Not just during so-called "safe" autopilot miles, but over all miles driven. Now it's plausibl…

Except there are "autopilot" miles in the before bucket. They are comparing before and after Autosteer so Autosteer is in the after bucket only. TACC however is in both buckets, aka this is supposed to be a comparison showing the increase in safety when going from level1 to level2 systems but both buckets have tons of human driven miles mixed in.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#90

Post by scotty79 »

cbr wrote: post #57

This is really good news. A major worry with driverless cars has been that companies would be harshly punished for accidents, even if there was a dramatic reduction in crashes overall.

They managed to weasel themselves out of similar problem when they rebranded vehicular manaslaughter to jaywalking shifting the blame to the victim. I'm sure there's no problem here that a bit of marketing and societal engineering can't solve.
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