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NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

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Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#51

Post by frgtpsswrdlame »

stale2002 wrote: post #35
stuckagain wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That conclusion is not supported by the data in the report. A supportable conclusion based on this report would be that Tesla automation with auto-steer produces 40% fewer air bag deployments than Tesla automation without auto-steer.

Thats like saying "This medical procedure doesn't save lives, it just results in 40% fewer incidents of sudden heart failure".

You should really read the report. It's comparing Tesla TACC to Tesla TACC+Autosteer. Aka the safety increase when going from Level1 to Level2. It doesn't have anything to do with being safer than human drivers.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#52

Post by problems »

huangc10 wrote: post #28

Can anyone who is in the industry comment on how Autopilot performs in poor weather (ie. flash floods, thunderstorms, snowstorms etc...) All I can find from the article about weather was in section 3.1: > The manual includes several additional warnings related to system limitations, use near pedestrians and cyclists, and use on winding roads with sharp curves or with slippery surfaces or poor weather conditions. The…

Not sure about Tesla's, but many others are completely disabled or say specifically not to use them in poor weather conditions.

You have to look at what they're using for this, it's cameras with computer vision and radar. Radar has reflection problems like all hell at ground level and computer vision using cameras is generally piss poor (hence why you see videos of the Tesla hitting reflective objects).

It's a miracle that they can do this well using it IMO, even without adverse weather.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#53

Post by Pxtl »

mikeash wrote: post #24
stale2002 wrote: post #6

Oh, hey, will you look at that. The imperfect, incomplete, beta, level 2 self driving cars that were supposed to be the "dangerous" area of self driving are ALREADY better than human drivers. Can we stop the politics and deploy all the real self driving cars to the road immediately, since the government has proven that even the shitty variety is safer than humans?

Level 3 is the real danger area. That's the level where the driver is able to do other things, but must be prepared to retake control at any time. Those two ideas are basically contradictory: if you're not already involved with driving, it takes too long to get back into it to do anything useful. Tesla's system is level 2, meaning that the driver must (as in, is supposed to) remain engaged and aware of the driving ta…

There is zero chance I'd stay awake behind the wheel of a level 2 or 3 vehicle.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#54

Post by jfoutz »

up_and_up wrote: post #37
Tepix wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rates dropped by 40%. The drivers remained the same. Why do you think a different driver demographic will not show a similar improvement?

Do you think peoples ability to behave/drive responsibly vs recklessly could be at all linked to their demographic profile? I am talking statistically, not looking for anecdotes...

Varying insurance rates based on age and gender seem to indicate that, yes, demographics play a role in driving responsibility.

A Tesla is not a cheap car. I kind of suspect the average Tesla driver is more responsible than the average driver. It may be the case that the average Tesla driver is very well off, and treat the cars as expensive toys though, so it's tough to say without numbers. If i had to bet right now, i'd bet on the more responsible side though.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#55

Post by Roritharr »

atonalfreerider wrote: post #49
Roritharr wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really would like to know the absolute numbers for this reduction. It's really questionable if this would hold up with millions of Teslas on the road in the hands of less wealthy(probably better educated) drivers.

Wealthy motorists drive more recklessly: http://www.pnas.org/content/109/11/4086.short

Makes sense, but its still interesting how the result would change when applied to the general population. Would VW Beetle drivers have the same reduction?

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#56

Post by fmihaila »

frgtpsswrdlame wrote: post #51
stale2002 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thats like saying "This medical procedure doesn't save lives, it just results in 40% fewer incidents of sudden heart failure".

You should really read the report. It's comparing Tesla TACC to Tesla TACC+Autosteer. Aka the safety increase when going from Level1 to Level2. It doesn't have anything to do with being safer than human drivers.

I think it is reasonable to assume that Tesla TACC is not less safe than Tesla non-TACC, therefore the conclusion is also relevant to comparisons between Tesla level 0 (entirely human-driven, no assist) vs. Tesla level 2.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#58

Post by Vik1ng »

snewman wrote: post #2

Tesla comes off extremely well in this report. For one thing, the 40% statistic cited in the headline appears to be well supported by the NHTSA report (section 5.4) and actually manages to frame the incident in a very positive light: ODI analyzed mileage and airbag deployment data supplied by Tesla for all MY 2014 through 2016 Model S and 2016 Model X vehicles equipped with the Autopilot Technology Package, either in…

Just funny that the 40% from Autosteer seem to exactly match with the general AEB safety improvement rate also mentioned in the report...

    IIHS research shows that AEB systems meeting the commitment would reduce rear-end crashes[emphasis added] by 40 percent. IIHS estimates that by 2025 – the earliest NHTSA believes it could realistically implement a regulatory requirement for AEB – the commitment will prevent 28,000 crashes and 12,000 injuries.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#59

Post by mozumder »

atonalfreerider wrote: post #49
Roritharr wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really would like to know the absolute numbers for this reduction. It's really questionable if this would hold up with millions of Teslas on the road in the hands of less wealthy(probably better educated) drivers.

Wealthy motorists drive more recklessly: http://www.pnas.org/content/109/11/4086.short

I think you pointed to the wrong link. That's a study about ethics, not safety.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#60

Post by frgtpsswrdlame »

fmihaila wrote: post #56
frgtpsswrdlame wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should really read the report. It's comparing Tesla TACC to Tesla TACC+Autosteer. Aka the safety increase when going from Level1 to Level2. It doesn't have anything to do with being safer than human drivers.

I think it is reasonable to assume that Tesla TACC is not less safe than Tesla non-TACC, therefore the conclusion is also relevant to comparisons between Tesla level 0 (entirely human-driven, no assist) vs. Tesla level 2.

Why would it be reasonable to assume that?
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