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NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

techcrunch.com

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Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#11

Post by Tepix »

Roritharr wrote: post #4
snewman wrote: post #2

Tesla comes off extremely well in this report. For one thing, the 40% statistic cited in the headline appears to be well supported by the NHTSA report (section 5.4) and actually manages to frame the incident in a very positive light: ODI analyzed mileage and airbag deployment data supplied by Tesla for all MY 2014 through 2016 Model S and 2016 Model X vehicles equipped with the Autopilot Technology Package, either in…

I really would like to know the absolute numbers for this reduction. It's really questionable if this would hold up with millions of Teslas on the road in the hands of less wealthy(probably better educated) drivers.

The rates dropped by 40%. The drivers remained the same. Why do you think a different driver demographic will not show a similar improvement?

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#12

Post by fmihaila »

sandworm101 wrote: post #5

Great. There is no doubt that driver assists cut down on crashes. But what tesla has on the road is far from a total eyes-closed autopilot. That is an inflection point with this tech that nobody has dared to test on the public road. I remain unconvinced pending those trials. Also, still havent seen any autodrive handle off-road driving such as boarding a carferry or navigate a construction zone manned by an inattenti…

> But what tesla has on the road is far from a total eyes-closed autopilot.

It doesn't matter that it is not full autopilot. What matters is that whatever they have right now, as currently deployed in the real world, produced the numbers behind NHTSA's conclusions.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#13

Post by tehlike »

snewman wrote: post #2

Tesla comes off extremely well in this report. For one thing, the 40% statistic cited in the headline appears to be well supported by the NHTSA report (section 5.4) and actually manages to frame the incident in a very positive light: ODI analyzed mileage and airbag deployment data supplied by Tesla for all MY 2014 through 2016 Model S and 2016 Model X vehicles equipped with the Autopilot Technology Package, either in…

I didnt read the report, but is this measurement done on a a/b testing way? There is usually some data skew/bias when they are done on different time scale.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#14

Post by Tepix »

sandworm101 wrote: post #5

Great. There is no doubt that driver assists cut down on crashes. But what tesla has on the road is far from a total eyes-closed autopilot. That is an inflection point with this tech that nobody has dared to test on the public road. I remain unconvinced pending those trials. Also, still havent seen any autodrive handle off-road driving such as boarding a carferry or navigate a construction zone manned by an inattenti…

What's your point?

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#15

Post by Shivetya »

stale2002 wrote: post #6

Oh, hey, will you look at that. The imperfect, incomplete, beta, level 2 self driving cars that were supposed to be the "dangerous" area of self driving are ALREADY better than human drivers. Can we stop the politics and deploy all the real self driving cars to the road immediately, since the government has proven that even the shitty variety is safer than humans?

I think the primary issue many of us have is the name. the name implies far more capability than the system delivers. I have seen clear day demonstrations but am eagerly awaiting Tesla to show us a night time rainy video which I have seen references of testing having been done

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#16

Post by kolbe »

stale2002 wrote: post #6

Oh, hey, will you look at that. The imperfect, incomplete, beta, level 2 self driving cars that were supposed to be the "dangerous" area of self driving are ALREADY better than human drivers. Can we stop the politics and deploy all the real self driving cars to the road immediately, since the government has proven that even the shitty variety is safer than humans?

on the other hand, i am easily 3 times safer than the average driver, so self driving vehicles would endanger me.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#17

Post by randomdata »

dkonofalski wrote: post #7
Roritharr wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really would like to know the absolute numbers for this reduction. It's really questionable if this would hold up with millions of Teslas on the road in the hands of less wealthy(probably better educated) drivers.

Wait... are you saying that people that are less wealthy are better educated? If so, I need to see some sources. That sounds preposterous.

Assuming by education you mean formal schooling: Consider that wealth is accumulated over time. While outliers certainly exist, the older you get, the more wealthy you are apt to be, at least to the point when you retire and start to use those reserves to live on. Also consider that in 1970s, the time when the boomers started coming of age, having 'high school or more' was reserved for just 50% of the population. Only a mere 25% for the oldest segment of the population. It has steadily climbed to more than 80% for the youngest adults. But they, statistically, haven't had time to amass a large amount of wealth yet.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#18

Post by GauntletWizard »

jackmott wrote: post #9
dkonofalski wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait... are you saying that people that are less wealthy are better educated? If so, I need to see some sources. That sounds preposterous.

no. he needs more parens to make the order of operations clear. also, love the standard internet response to data. "the data in not perfect, or is incomplete, thus I will hold steadfast to my intuition" love you, internet.

It's very reasonable, when presented with data that doesn't pass a sniff check, to mentally bitbucket that data. Unfortunately, lots of people's noses are miscalibrated - And what's worse we're not sure which ones.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#19

Post by vvanders »

tehlike wrote: post #13
snewman wrote: post #2

Tesla comes off extremely well in this report. For one thing, the 40% statistic cited in the headline appears to be well supported by the NHTSA report (section 5.4) and actually manages to frame the incident in a very positive light: ODI analyzed mileage and airbag deployment data supplied by Tesla for all MY 2014 through 2016 Model S and 2016 Model X vehicles equipped with the Autopilot Technology Package, either in…

I didnt read the report, but is this measurement done on a a/b testing way? There is usually some data skew/bias when they are done on different time scale.

Same cars pre/post OTA. There was a ~6 month peroid where AP HW was out in the wild but not used.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#20

Post by stuckagain »

stale2002 wrote: post #6

Oh, hey, will you look at that. The imperfect, incomplete, beta, level 2 self driving cars that were supposed to be the "dangerous" area of self driving are ALREADY better than human drivers. Can we stop the politics and deploy all the real self driving cars to the road immediately, since the government has proven that even the shitty variety is safer than humans?

That conclusion is not supported by the data in the report. A supportable conclusion based on this report would be that Tesla automation with auto-steer produces 40% fewer air bag deployments than Tesla automation without auto-steer.
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