Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

techcrunch.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

31–40 of 327 posts

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#31

Post by celticninja »

Roritharr wrote: post #4
snewman wrote: post #2

Tesla comes off extremely well in this report. For one thing, the 40% statistic cited in the headline appears to be well supported by the NHTSA report (section 5.4) and actually manages to frame the incident in a very positive light: ODI analyzed mileage and airbag deployment data supplied by Tesla for all MY 2014 through 2016 Model S and 2016 Model X vehicles equipped with the Autopilot Technology Package, either in…

I really would like to know the absolute numbers for this reduction. It's really questionable if this would hold up with millions of Teslas on the road in the hands of less wealthy(probably better educated) drivers.

Are you assuming the more wealthy owners have lower levels of education? Or have I misinterpreted your statement? I would have assumed tesla owners would fall into the more educated category. No idea which assumption is correct just wondering about your reasoning.

For my assumption I assume that due to the higher cost of a Tesla better educated people are opting for them over the alternative because of the environmental benefits.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#32

Post by jay-anderson »

dkonofalski wrote: post #8

I don't really know why this is surprising. Computers are already better than humans at most tasks that involve a limited set of behaviors and they have infinitely better response time than humans (and continue to get better). How could anyone think that a report like this was going to end up any differently?

It's okay to withhold judgement and to be skeptical until seeing actual data. Especially for rapidly developing technologies like self-driving cars.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#33

Post by wccrawford »

Tepix wrote: post #11
Roritharr wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really would like to know the absolute numbers for this reduction. It's really questionable if this would hold up with millions of Teslas on the road in the hands of less wealthy(probably better educated) drivers.

The rates dropped by 40%. The drivers remained the same. Why do you think a different driver demographic will not show a similar improvement?

Maybe other drivers are really good, or maybe this class of driver is really bad?

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#34

Post by cryptoz »

wccrawford wrote: post #33
Tepix wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rates dropped by 40%. The drivers remained the same. Why do you think a different driver demographic will not show a similar improvement?

Maybe other drivers are really good, or maybe this class of driver is really bad?

35,000 people die from car accidents every single year in the USA alone. Other drivers are not "really good".

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#35

Post by stale2002 »

stuckagain wrote: post #20
stale2002 wrote: post #6

Oh, hey, will you look at that. The imperfect, incomplete, beta, level 2 self driving cars that were supposed to be the "dangerous" area of self driving are ALREADY better than human drivers. Can we stop the politics and deploy all the real self driving cars to the road immediately, since the government has proven that even the shitty variety is safer than humans?

That conclusion is not supported by the data in the report. A supportable conclusion based on this report would be that Tesla automation with auto-steer produces 40% fewer air bag deployments than Tesla automation without auto-steer.

Thats like saying "This medical procedure doesn't save lives, it just results in 40% fewer incidents of sudden heart failure".

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#36

Post by martin_bech »

kolbe wrote: post #16
stale2002 wrote: post #6

Oh, hey, will you look at that. The imperfect, incomplete, beta, level 2 self driving cars that were supposed to be the "dangerous" area of self driving are ALREADY better than human drivers. Can we stop the politics and deploy all the real self driving cars to the road immediately, since the government has proven that even the shitty variety is safer than humans?

on the other hand, i am easily 3 times safer than the average driver, so self driving vehicles would endanger me.

All the bad drivers would be 40% less likely to crash into you. And since your are a 3x Driver, the only you risk you have while driving, are all the bad drivers.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#37

Post by up_and_up »

Tepix wrote: post #11
Roritharr wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really would like to know the absolute numbers for this reduction. It's really questionable if this would hold up with millions of Teslas on the road in the hands of less wealthy(probably better educated) drivers.

The rates dropped by 40%. The drivers remained the same. Why do you think a different driver demographic will not show a similar improvement?

Do you think peoples ability to behave/drive responsibly vs recklessly could be at all linked to their demographic profile? I am talking statistically, not looking for anecdotes...

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#38

Post by avenoir »

dkonofalski wrote: post #7
Roritharr wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really would like to know the absolute numbers for this reduction. It's really questionable if this would hold up with millions of Teslas on the road in the hands of less wealthy(probably better educated) drivers.

Wait... are you saying that people that are less wealthy are better educated? If so, I need to see some sources. That sounds preposterous.

I also found that confusing. I think in this case "less wealthy" is within the context of Tesla owners, which is basically upper middle class(?), which sort of makes sense. At least that's how I read it.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#39

Post by pavlov »

kolbe wrote: post #16
stale2002 wrote: post #6

Oh, hey, will you look at that. The imperfect, incomplete, beta, level 2 self driving cars that were supposed to be the "dangerous" area of self driving are ALREADY better than human drivers. Can we stop the politics and deploy all the real self driving cars to the road immediately, since the government has proven that even the shitty variety is safer than humans?

on the other hand, i am easily 3 times safer than the average driver, so self driving vehicles would endanger me.

Dunning-Kruger effect on display?

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#40

Post by frgtpsswrdlame »

stuckagain wrote: post #20
stale2002 wrote: post #6

Oh, hey, will you look at that. The imperfect, incomplete, beta, level 2 self driving cars that were supposed to be the "dangerous" area of self driving are ALREADY better than human drivers. Can we stop the politics and deploy all the real self driving cars to the road immediately, since the government has proven that even the shitty variety is safer than humans?

That conclusion is not supported by the data in the report. A supportable conclusion based on this report would be that Tesla automation with auto-steer produces 40% fewer air bag deployments than Tesla automation without auto-steer.

Actually we can't even go that far.

>22 The crash rates are for all miles travelled before and after Autopilot installation and are not limited to actual Autopilot use.

Post reply on HN