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China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

economist.com

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Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#241

Post by phairoh »

transfire wrote: post #62

What a pathetic Debbie Downer article -- quintessential modern America. Most of the article just keeps beating the cost drum -- trains don't generate enough ticket revenue to cover their cost. Meanwhile the U.S. taxpayer givers $41.0 billion a year to the Federal Highway Administration, and most roads don't generate a single dime of revenue.

The Economist is headquartered in London and as the publication's name implies it commonly focusses on the economical impact of any story it reports. They also don't hide the fact that their editorial positions are rooted in classical liberal economics.

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#242

Post by spangry »

_jgdh wrote: post #143
joering2 wrote: post #140

This looks great but I honestly wonder - if China is under heavy communism oppression and noone can make enough fuzz about their lifestyle before eventually disappearing... why would Chinese government care about spending money and time building such vast (and beautiful!) network? Serious question...

> This looks great but I honestly wonder - if China is under heavy communism oppression and noone can make enough fuzz about their lifestyle before eventually disappearing... why would Chinese government care about spending money and time building such vast (and beautiful!) network? Serious question... China isn't under heavy communist oppression, not the kind that you're thinking. Their style of oppression is differ…

The interesting question is whether their Social Contract will survive. So far, the people are generally satisfied with the Party's performance but in the years to come growth will inevitably slow, if only because their economy is so massive that compounded growth is difficult. I think the strategy is that by then the Party will have a much more efficient way of enforcing control over individuals than they did in 1989...

This is the question that keeps me up at night. Their rate of growth should naturally slow as their economy reaches capital saturation. And there are a lot of worrying structural features of the Chinese economy. For instance, they hit their 2030 metropolitan housing target a few years ago due to their stimulus packages driving a massive residential construction boom. So technically they should cease all residential housing construction for the next 15 years or so... They're also going to have a harder and harder time maintaining their capital controls (e.g. pegged exchange rates) as their foreign currency reserves run down. All hell could break loose if they can't defend their peg against speculative attacks.

If it's a slow melt scenario, maybe there will be enough time for the CCP to re-negotiate the social contract. But if any of a number of possible economic shocks hits China, and they're suddenly staring down the barrel of recession or a Japanese-style lost decade or two, I can't help but think the only way to avoid being dragged out in to the streets by angry protesters would be to declare war on another country (...Japan).

Maybe start taking a more aggressive stance on the Senkaku Islands, for instance. And the vague sense I have (and correct me if I'm wrong) is that the Trump administration intends to pursue a more 'isolationist' geo-strategic policy.

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#243

Post by vkou »

jdpedrie wrote: post #240
vkou wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many privately funded companies would even consider doing so in the current regulatory climate? There's a bit of survivourship bias at play, here! Likewise, if the oil were extracted by the state, rather then a private firm, it would also not have any problems with piping it over private property.

Perhaps, but it's not as though the popularity of oil pipelines is especially high. They still get built! If anything, much of the bureaucracy and public would far prefer to build high speed rail in place of a pipeline. Certainly neither face a particularly positive regulatory environment. I'm not sure what your second point is getting at. Rail lines face pretty huge eminent domain burdens along with everything else.…

They don't have to be popular, but the regulators are happy to disregard that problem, and fast-track approval.

On the other hand, none of the regulators would even consider doing that to lay a train track.

My point is that nobody tries to build a rail line, because they know it's a hopeless affair - they will never get approval.

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#244

Post by robotresearcher »

aminok wrote: post #233
robotresearcher wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All property and privacy rights are societal norms in the first place. Society isn't violating any natural rights by taxing you. On the contrary, modern society actively protects you from having all your stuff taken by anyone strong enough to take it.

Both private property and privacy rights are human rights that no society has a right to violate.

Says your societal norm.

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#245

Post by astrodust »

refurb wrote: post #202
astrodust wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are tons of city pairs but because the airline industry is heavily subsidized it's often cheaper to fly. The Boston to Washington D.C. corridor could easily sustain itself if the trains put in place were reliable, expedient, and low-fuss. There's no technological barriers here, as China has proven, only political ones. A lot of people see Amtrak as a problem, an anachronism, not a solution.

Airlines are subsidized? Not according to this article.[1] [1] http://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/2015/04/14/u-s-airlines-...

Airports are a spectacularly expensive undertaking and require heavy subsidies to even exist. If the airlines had to pay for those with cash they'd be bankrupt unless they charged more. Then there's the subsidies paid to the oil companies that makes jet fuel more cost effective, and airlines burn a lot of that. As a portion of net cost, fuel is likely higher for aviation than for any other form of travel.

$250B sounds like a lot of money, but that's since the 1970s. In that time how many airports have been built or rebuilt? What's the net cost of that?

The footprint of a rail station is significantly smaller, the costs are proportionately lower. There's subsidies there, too, but they're significantly smaller, and many of those were provided in the early 20th century back when rail was a vital link.

Also Forbes is utterly useless as a site. Not only do they bitch endlessly about ad blockers, which I only use because the sorts of advertising sites like that promote are offensively stupid, but it splits up that short article into three pages with interstitial ads between each page.

Fuck that.

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#246

Post by aminok »

robotresearcher wrote: post #244
aminok wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both private property and privacy rights are human rights that no society has a right to violate.

Says your societal norm.

Says my conscience. That's all a perception of human rights amounts to. I think most would agree with my perception if the euphemisms and ideological labels were pealed away.

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#247

Post by robotresearcher »

aminok wrote: post #246
robotresearcher wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Says your societal norm.

Says my conscience. That's all a perception of human rights amounts to. I think most would agree with my perception if the euphemisms and ideological labels were pealed away.

Your conscience being immune to and independent of the strong prevailing cultural norms of course.

And yet somehow a handful of generations ago a large number of consciences were pretty definite about the rights of black Africans. Seems impossible to today's conscience.

Consciences change over time. Every generation thinks theirs is the One True Correct belief system. Bah.

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#248

Post by scott_karana »

ytruytr wrote: post #142
xbeta wrote: post #135

(Being a Chinese grew up in Canada, and now working/living in the Bay) In my opinion, most people in the valley or in North America still refuse to give up their lifestyle. They look for something like self-driving cars, all electric-powered "personal" vehicle to invest. And those still drive on the same road/interstates/highway infrastructure and don't give you the benefits compare with high-speed rails. They don't…

A lot of the political pushback in the US is two major factors: 1) Rail systems are almost never profitable. The US, at least in spirit, doesn't like government subsidies. An investment in high speed rail entails paying taxes for it for many years or perhaps forever. 2) The US is much more rural than other developed countries. The land area compared to the population is huge compared to Europe/China/Japan. You almost…

> Rail systems are almost never profitable. The US, at least in spirit, doesn't like government subsidies.

Excuse me? Japan privatized its rail system in the late 80s, doesn't subsidize any of the JR companies[1][2] (which are all publicly traded to boot), and has a profitable enough industry that there are now numerous private operators[3] of various sizes who successfully compete.[4]

1 http://www.railway-technology.com/features/featurelevel-play...

2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_transport_in_Japan

3 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokyu_Corporation, and see the box at the bottom for lots more

4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transport_in_Greater_Tokyo#Oth...

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#249

Post by aminok »

robotresearcher wrote: post #247
aminok wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Says my conscience. That's all a perception of human rights amounts to. I think most would agree with my perception if the euphemisms and ideological labels were pealed away.

Your conscience being immune to and independent of the strong prevailing cultural norms of course. And yet somehow a handful of generations ago a large number of consciences were pretty definite about the rights of black Africans. Seems impossible to today's conscience. Consciences change over time. Every generation thinks theirs is the One True Correct belief system. Bah.

Whether my conscience is affected by prevailing cultural norms won't stop me from opposing slavery, or the imprisonment of those who refuse to hand over a share of all currency they receive in private trade.

We must ultimately live by a set of values that make the most sense to us. I see no reason why I should not.

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#250

Post by Larrikin »

free652 wrote: post #223
Larrikin wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

24/7 is in fact a negative as the state of the DC Metro and NYC system show especially in comparison to Tokyo's multiple system. There's not enough time to do proper repairs and improvements. What I don't understand is why more cities don't operate like Philly and operate 24 hour bus service in place of the trains at night. With a system like that the night workers can still get to work as early as others and the bar…

NYC has buses covering pretty much the same routes as subway, it just takes much longer. Personally I use express buses for commute and these are amazing, though twice as expensive.

Some metro systems have a 24/7 bus system, but Philly's is an exact replacement for the trains. They don't make all the extra stops of the buses that serve similar routes. I'm unaware of anywhere else that does this
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