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China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

economist.com

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Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#181

Post by tele »

adventured wrote: post #141
xbeta wrote: post #135

(Being a Chinese grew up in Canada, and now working/living in the Bay) In my opinion, most people in the valley or in North America still refuse to give up their lifestyle. They look for something like self-driving cars, all electric-powered "personal" vehicle to invest. And those still drive on the same road/interstates/highway infrastructure and don't give you the benefits compare with high-speed rails. They don't…

The US is in fact ascendant, not in decline. You're using the rail example to imply downfall, and yet the US economy has embarrassed the Japanese economy the last 25 years. In the mid 1980s, the US and Japan nearly had the same GDP per capita; very soon the US will have twice the GDP per capita of Japan. You're implying rail is so beneficial to economic growth, and let's say I agree with that: and yet the US has been…

These are demonstrably false claims.

GDP Annual Growth rate from 1996-2016 in Europe was 1.7%, in the US from 1995-2015 it was 2.1%. [World Bank, Trading Economics].

The German GDP per capita grew from $36,000 to $46,000 from 2006 to 2016. [World Bank], and it ranks in the mid 30's out of 50 states. [Wikipedia].

The per capita GDP of Puerto Rico is $28,529, the per capita GDP of France is $41,329. [World Bank]

For a fair comparison between the US and Germany/France, let's examine the inequality adjusted Human Development Index, as measurements that do not account for income inequality obfuscate the reality of most citizens.

Germany ranks 6th, France ranks 18th, the US ranks 28th. [Wikipedia].

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#182

Post by sknuds »

jarboot wrote: post #67

Currently in China and frequently using the train system here. I really wish something like this could happen in a country as big as the US. What's stopping them? Politicians? Land rights? Lack of resources?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbEfzuCLoAQ

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#183

Post by ekianjo »

nialv7 wrote: post #160
neolefty wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have ridden those trains (spent 2011-2016 in China), and they're pretty great, but they're hard to justify economically: > The overall bill is already high. China Railway Corporation, the state-owned operator of the train system, has debts of more than 4trn yuan, equal to about 6% of GDP. Strains were evident last year when China Railway Materials, an equipment-maker, was forced to restructure part of its debts. Si…

The rail doesn't have to be profitable itself (which is a benefit of being state-owned). The more important thing is the bigger picture, is how much economic advantage it generates.

Japan does not seem to get much growth out of it.

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#184

Post by Haydos585x2 »

mozumder wrote: post #153
derefr wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a similar question to what percentage of people use all those empty condo-cities being built in China. The answer is: a perhaps-negligible number now (except around existing metropolitan centres, where there's respectable usage), but with projected growth toward capacity as GDP rises. Because Chinese civil-planning policy isn't a matter of election promises, it isn't constrained to showing benefits within fou…

Those empty condos are unmarketable. As people become wealthier, they're going to change tastes. Even the middle class is going to seek out individual single family homes, instead of the concrete jungle of repetitive jail cells that are those new condos. They're the poor mans idea of what the middle class wants.

A lot of those cities have the apartments built and sold before they put in commercial areas and most importantly things like subways. There was an episode of Sinica where a guest was talking to a person that bought one of the ghost apartments but wasn't living in it because there wasn't a subway line. The guest went back to the area once the subway opened and most of the apartments were full and roads were being used. I think it was this episode[0] but not 100% sure. I know the section I'm talking about was towards the end of the episode.

0 - http://supchina.com/sinica/beautiful-country-middle-kingdom-...

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#185

Post by free652 »

dmix wrote: post #180
free652 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>A 2011 study by the consulting firm Management Information Services, Inc. (MISI)[28] estimated the total historical federal subsidies for various energy sources over the years 1950–2010. The study found that oil, natural gas, and coal received $369 billion, $121 billion, and $104 billion (2010 dollars), respectively, or 70% of total energy subsidies over that period Over 60 years.

No, per year. Specifically $606 billion in 2013. The cited study from the sentence I referenced in my comment: > Estimated subsidies are $4.9 trillion worldwide in 2013 and $5.3 trillion in 2015 (6.5% of global GDP in both years). > In terms of countries, China had the largest absolute post-tax subsidies in 2013 ($1,844 billion or 19.5% of GDP), followed by United States ($606 billion or 3.6% of GDP), Russia ($318 bi…

Here is the study that you quoted, it's total.

http://www.misi-net.com/publications/NEI-1011.pdf

edit:

The other study that you provided includes global warming and air pollution as a "subsidy", no offense but that's pushing the definition.

http://imgur.com/a/hNm6a

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#186

Post by ghaff »

astrodust wrote: post #175
ghaff wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many people do indeed want to get from Point A to point B quickly. That's why there are around 75,000 plane flights per day. There are very few city pairs in the US with the potential volume to justify high speed rail. There already is high speed-ish rail travel in the Northeast and it's very popular. But, for example, even if you could magically offer 6-8 hour train service between New York and Chicago, relatively f…

There are tons of city pairs but because the airline industry is heavily subsidized it's often cheaper to fly. The Boston to Washington D.C. corridor could easily sustain itself if the trains put in place were reliable, expedient, and low-fuss. There's no technological barriers here, as China has proven, only political ones. A lot of people see Amtrak as a problem, an anachronism, not a solution.

The corridor does sustain itself. In fact, it basically makes the money that Amtrak loses throughout the rest of the country. It doesn't really work (for most people) for Boston to DC trips but it's quite popular for NYC north and NYC south.

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#187

Post by Spooky23 »

ghaff wrote: post #152
xbeta wrote: post #135

(Being a Chinese grew up in Canada, and now working/living in the Bay) In my opinion, most people in the valley or in North America still refuse to give up their lifestyle. They look for something like self-driving cars, all electric-powered "personal" vehicle to invest. And those still drive on the same road/interstates/highway infrastructure and don't give you the benefits compare with high-speed rails. They don't…

Many people do indeed want to get from Point A to point B quickly. That's why there are around 75,000 plane flights per day. There are very few city pairs in the US with the potential volume to justify high speed rail. There already is high speed-ish rail travel in the Northeast and it's very popular. But, for example, even if you could magically offer 6-8 hour train service between New York and Chicago, relatively f…

There are tons of good city pairs. People are paying to be carted like baggage by Spirit.

We subsidize highways and air travel at the expense of other ground options. It shouldn't be 70% cheaper for me to drive my family to Florida or the Carolinas for vacation from NY vs air or rail. But it is.

Hundreds of thousands, if not millions, do that I95 trip every year. There are dozens of corridors like that.

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#188

Post by twoodfin »

akshayn wrote: post #145
ytruytr wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of the political pushback in the US is two major factors: 1) Rail systems are almost never profitable. The US, at least in spirit, doesn't like government subsidies. An investment in high speed rail entails paying taxes for it for many years or perhaps forever. 2) The US is much more rural than other developed countries. The land area compared to the population is huge compared to Europe/China/Japan. You almost…

Highways (tolls) tend to be far less profitable than rail systems (ticket sales). If the US didn't like government subsidies, we wouldn't have built all these highways.

A moderate increase in user fees (gas taxes today, mileage fees in an electric future) could readily fund all capital and maintenance costs for the US interstate system. Gas wouldn't have to be that much more expensive than it was 4-5 years ago. The system would endure and could even be profitable.

No such fee structure could plausibly fund any rail system outside the NE Corridor. Prices adequate to sustain the network, let alone build it up, would put ridership into a death spiral.

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#189

Post by pyb »

pmontra wrote: post #57
lmm wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Guess: when originally built those carriages didn't have door locking. It was felt it would be unsafe to have a handle on the inside that could be accidentally opened while the train was moving at high speed. So the handle is on the outside so that it takes a very deliberate effort to open the door (and hopefully people know better than to reach out of a window at high speed).

Another guess: a handle on the outside costs less than one on both sides and there is a window to access the outside handle. Or: passengers were not supposed to operate those doors, there was railway personnel for that (this assumes very old trains) Check: there is something about that issue here https://lukehalliwell.wordpress.com/2010/08/08/horrible-door... "they firstly removed the interior door handles as a dirt-…

We are talking about recent carriages here (10-20 years old)

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#190

Post by kevinnk »

free652 wrote: post #185
dmix wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, per year. Specifically $606 billion in 2013. The cited study from the sentence I referenced in my comment: > Estimated subsidies are $4.9 trillion worldwide in 2013 and $5.3 trillion in 2015 (6.5% of global GDP in both years). > In terms of countries, China had the largest absolute post-tax subsidies in 2013 ($1,844 billion or 19.5% of GDP), followed by United States ($606 billion or 3.6% of GDP), Russia ($318 bi…

Here is the study that you quoted, it's total. http://www.misi-net.com/publications/NEI-1011.pdf edit: The other study that you provided includes global warming and air pollution as a "subsidy", no offense but that's pushing the definition. http://imgur.com/a/hNm6a

I'm pretty sure you're correct and those numbers are total since 1950. However, the study does seem confusingly worded - in the footnote on page 1 it says:

"All estimates quoted are in constant 2010 dollars, unless otherwise noted, and refer to actual expenditures in the relevant fiscal year, rounded to the nearest billion"

At least to me that reads like "all estimates refer to expenditures from the relevant fiscal year only". However, they later quote the same numbers as being "total spending since 1950". Am I just missing an obvious interpretation for the footnote?

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