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China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

economist.com

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Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#141

Post by adventured »

xbeta wrote: post #135

(Being a Chinese grew up in Canada, and now working/living in the Bay) In my opinion, most people in the valley or in North America still refuse to give up their lifestyle. They look for something like self-driving cars, all electric-powered "personal" vehicle to invest. And those still drive on the same road/interstates/highway infrastructure and don't give you the benefits compare with high-speed rails. They don't…

The US is in fact ascendant, not in decline.

You're using the rail example to imply downfall, and yet the US economy has embarrassed the Japanese economy the last 25 years. In the mid 1980s, the US and Japan nearly had the same GDP per capita; very soon the US will have twice the GDP per capita of Japan.

You're implying rail is so beneficial to economic growth, and let's say I agree with that: and yet the US has been embarrassing most of Europe on economic growth for the last 20 years (Germany's economy hasn't expanded in ten years for example).

If you were right, US GDP per capita should be far lower than the EU or Eurozone, when the exact opposite is the case. Germany has a GDP per capita of the poorest US states (it's nearly on par with West Virginia currently). France nearly has the GDP per capita of Puerto Rico.

I don't believe your premise has any legs to stand on based on the facts. The real implication here is that the US would be staggeringly far ahead if it corrected some of its obvious flaws.

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#142

Post by ytruytr »

xbeta wrote: post #135

(Being a Chinese grew up in Canada, and now working/living in the Bay) In my opinion, most people in the valley or in North America still refuse to give up their lifestyle. They look for something like self-driving cars, all electric-powered "personal" vehicle to invest. And those still drive on the same road/interstates/highway infrastructure and don't give you the benefits compare with high-speed rails. They don't…

A lot of the political pushback in the US is two major factors:

1) Rail systems are almost never profitable. The US, at least in spirit, doesn't like government subsidies. An investment in high speed rail entails paying taxes for it for many years or perhaps forever.

2) The US is much more rural than other developed countries. The land area compared to the population is huge compared to Europe/China/Japan. You almost need a car to get around because there's so much open space. Things are too far apart in many cases to make public transport realistic. Also, since nearly everyone has a car already the need for a rapid mode of transport is mostly met. Yeah it sucks in the big cities but a lot of the people that work there live far enough away that any rail system built would never reach their homes anyways.

You do see big public transport networks in places with extremely high density like New York, which has a similar density to most countries with well developed systems.

The notable exception I can think of to the trend is Russia, which has a lot of public transport compared to population density. This can probably be explained by a history of being a communist country as well as the relative lack of personal cars due to lower income and limited access to trade with countries that manufacture automobiles

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#143

Post by _jgdh »

joering2 wrote: post #140

This looks great but I honestly wonder - if China is under heavy communism oppression and noone can make enough fuzz about their lifestyle before eventually disappearing... why would Chinese government care about spending money and time building such vast (and beautiful!) network? Serious question...

> This looks great but I honestly wonder - if China is under heavy communism oppression and noone can make enough fuzz about their lifestyle before eventually disappearing... why would Chinese government care about spending money and time building such vast (and beautiful!) network? Serious question...

China isn't under heavy communist oppression, not the kind that you're thinking. Their style of oppression is different. The Social Contract that the Party offers the People is this - you will not get political choice, you will always be ruled by us; in return you will not have to worry about money because this economy will grow at 7.5%pa. That rising tide will lift all boats, including yours. When all your material needs are taken care of, do you really care who is in charge?

Projects such as high speed rail help the Party deliver on its promise. The Economist points out the ways in which this boosts economic growth, as well as other bonus effects, like allowing people to buy affordable housing in smaller cities that are short commutes away from Beijing/Shaghai and other major cities. If the Party doesn't hold its end of the Contract up, it risks mass unrest, similar to the Tiananmen Square protests. That ought to answer your question.

The interesting question is whether their Social Contract will survive. So far, the people are generally satisfied with the Party's performance but in the years to come growth will inevitably slow, if only because their economy is so massive that compounded growth is difficult. I think the strategy is that by then the Party will have a much more efficient way of enforcing control over individuals than they did in 1989 when the Tiananmen protests took place Rather than crude measures like locking people up or beating them, the Party will use the social score [1] to subtly control the People. If you know that your house payments will rise, or your medical care will be deprioritized, or your friends will ostracize you, or you'll face harassment from strangers or you won't be able to apply to good schools for your children, or all of the above... will you still have the courage to show up to protest, much less stand in front of a column of tanks? [2]

[1] - http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21711904-worrying-expe...

[2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tank_Man

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#144

Post by dmix »

ytruytr wrote: post #142
xbeta wrote: post #135

(Being a Chinese grew up in Canada, and now working/living in the Bay) In my opinion, most people in the valley or in North America still refuse to give up their lifestyle. They look for something like self-driving cars, all electric-powered "personal" vehicle to invest. And those still drive on the same road/interstates/highway infrastructure and don't give you the benefits compare with high-speed rails. They don't…

A lot of the political pushback in the US is two major factors: 1) Rail systems are almost never profitable. The US, at least in spirit, doesn't like government subsidies. An investment in high speed rail entails paying taxes for it for many years or perhaps forever. 2) The US is much more rural than other developed countries. The land area compared to the population is huge compared to Europe/China/Japan. You almost…

> The US, at least in spirit, doesn't like government subsidies.

The US gives $0.6 trillion / yr in energy subsidies, about 70% of which goes to oil. Which reduces the cost of cars and trucks.

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#145

Post by akshayn »

ytruytr wrote: post #142
xbeta wrote: post #135

(Being a Chinese grew up in Canada, and now working/living in the Bay) In my opinion, most people in the valley or in North America still refuse to give up their lifestyle. They look for something like self-driving cars, all electric-powered "personal" vehicle to invest. And those still drive on the same road/interstates/highway infrastructure and don't give you the benefits compare with high-speed rails. They don't…

A lot of the political pushback in the US is two major factors: 1) Rail systems are almost never profitable. The US, at least in spirit, doesn't like government subsidies. An investment in high speed rail entails paying taxes for it for many years or perhaps forever. 2) The US is much more rural than other developed countries. The land area compared to the population is huge compared to Europe/China/Japan. You almost…

Highways (tolls) tend to be far less profitable than rail systems (ticket sales). If the US didn't like government subsidies, we wouldn't have built all these highways.

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#146

Post by ytruytr »

akshayn wrote: post #145
ytruytr wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of the political pushback in the US is two major factors: 1) Rail systems are almost never profitable. The US, at least in spirit, doesn't like government subsidies. An investment in high speed rail entails paying taxes for it for many years or perhaps forever. 2) The US is much more rural than other developed countries. The land area compared to the population is huge compared to Europe/China/Japan. You almost…

Highways (tolls) tend to be far less profitable than rail systems (ticket sales). If the US didn't like government subsidies, we wouldn't have built all these highways.

Do you have a source on this? In my state the government used the tolls roads as a cash cow, they were massively profitable. The funny thing was the toll roads still sucked because they dumped all the money into the general fund to pay for everything else

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#147

Post by skybrian »

adventured wrote: post #141
xbeta wrote: post #135

(Being a Chinese grew up in Canada, and now working/living in the Bay) In my opinion, most people in the valley or in North America still refuse to give up their lifestyle. They look for something like self-driving cars, all electric-powered "personal" vehicle to invest. And those still drive on the same road/interstates/highway infrastructure and don't give you the benefits compare with high-speed rails. They don't…

The US is in fact ascendant, not in decline. You're using the rail example to imply downfall, and yet the US economy has embarrassed the Japanese economy the last 25 years. In the mid 1980s, the US and Japan nearly had the same GDP per capita; very soon the US will have twice the GDP per capita of Japan. You're implying rail is so beneficial to economic growth, and let's say I agree with that: and yet the US has been…

I'm not sure GDP per capita makes sense for this comparison when ownership is distributed so unequally in the US. Taking the mean is basically dividing up wealth equally and that's not what happens.

What is there about the German standard of living for typical citizens that compares unfavorably to the US? How can this be measured? No single number works, but I would suggest looking at medians ahead of means.

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#148

Post by wang0109 »

nacc wrote: post #78

As someone who grew in China, I just want to point out that besides the engineering, it is a political wonder as well. Before the bullet train network was built, China already has an extensive railway network. The first step is to run the bullet train on traditional railways, with a peak speed of 180km/h. People think it's great. No objections. But to raise the speed further, a new network has to be built, almost sid…

I don't get why the part where Liu Zhijun had to be in jail. Fast trains are intrinsically a great thing for China. People don't just "realize" it's great because of Liu or anybody else. Your "then" logic is misleading. Liu got into jail because embezzlement and favors from project contractors, at least that was part of the story, aside political factions.

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#149

Post by noonespecial »

adventured wrote: post #141
xbeta wrote: post #135

(Being a Chinese grew up in Canada, and now working/living in the Bay) In my opinion, most people in the valley or in North America still refuse to give up their lifestyle. They look for something like self-driving cars, all electric-powered "personal" vehicle to invest. And those still drive on the same road/interstates/highway infrastructure and don't give you the benefits compare with high-speed rails. They don't…

The US is in fact ascendant, not in decline. You're using the rail example to imply downfall, and yet the US economy has embarrassed the Japanese economy the last 25 years. In the mid 1980s, the US and Japan nearly had the same GDP per capita; very soon the US will have twice the GDP per capita of Japan. You're implying rail is so beneficial to economic growth, and let's say I agree with that: and yet the US has been…

>Germany has a GDP per capita of the poorest US states (it's nearly on par with West Virginia currently)

Wow. I did not know or even suspect that! Funny thing. I've lived in both. I'd rather live in a closet-sized apartment in Germany than in a McMansion in West Virginia. It seems like there might be an ocean of inquiry behind that narrow channel of facts. (At least for me personally)

Re: China has built the world’s largest bullet-train network

#150

Post by chiph »

ytruytr wrote: post #146
akshayn wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Highways (tolls) tend to be far less profitable than rail systems (ticket sales). If the US didn't like government subsidies, we wouldn't have built all these highways.

Do you have a source on this? In my state the government used the tolls roads as a cash cow, they were massively profitable. The funny thing was the toll roads still sucked because they dumped all the money into the general fund to pay for everything else

Just like about a quarter of the motor-fuels tax that is supposed to go into the highway trust fund.
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