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Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

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Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#281
post #19

I find it odd the way people talk about moving through the levels sequentially without really acknowledging there's a massive phase change that happens somewhere between level two and four, where a self-driving car could easily be way more dangerous than the average human driver. That comes as soon as you have a situation where the automation has to be able to handle all foreseeable scenarios without failing because…

And that transition has been repeatedly tried, and abandoned, in less-demanding autopilot fields. Trains, planes and ships are all less computationaly difficult yet attempts to remove drivers from the equation have come to nothing. If it isnt 100% than it just isnt acceptable.

Paris metro line 14 has no driver in the trains. Madrid'd airport has a fully automated train shuttle between terminals. I have ridden both of them and they were quite successful removing the drivers on those.

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have hit the nail on the head here. The 2/3 liability transition is a big one. My guess is that companies will actually delay deploying level 3 systems until they are nearly perfect. This will result in systems that seem really really good at driving (especially in sunny southern california), yet still insist that the driver wiggle the wheel or show some other sign of attentiveness to prevent liability transfer.

I can't wait for the Show HN hacks to get around these requirements.

That was already done 2 years ago. Some idiot just tied a bottle to the steering wheel of his Mercedes to trick it into sensing that he was still driving.

https://www.youtube.com/shared?ci=ALqiEkdD36Q

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#283
post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? Even if you limit self-driving to "I can kick back and watch TV on my highway commute" that seems as if it's an automobile feature that people would pay a non-trivial premium for. And, perhaps more importantly, would choose Brand X with the feature over Brand Y without it. There's a big market for convenience features in cars. (If you're talking the potentially many decades off roboUber, I don't necessarily d…

If you're talking the potentially many decades off roboUber, I don't necessarily disagree. I mean that's the whole selling point...and it would basically take that level 5 ability (as demonstrated in many articles and studies) to give you the "I can kick back and watch TV on my highway commute" ability. Hell you can install an in-dash DVD player now, but that's not the vision of self driving cars.

It may be the main selling point for the urban "no one will own cars" crowd but, yes, they're way optimistic on timeframes anyway. Contra something I read recently, yes, kids being born this year will need to learn to drive.

As I said, there's a huge market for incremental convenience and safety in a relatively short timeframe. But, yes, I'm more inclined to put my money on Volvo and Ford in that game than Google.

ADDED: Level 3 autonomy doesn't require full attention in specific scenarios so it seems as if L3 would allow you to watch a movie on the highway.

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay. Suppose that you spend 30 minutes on your commute each day for the rest of your working life, until you're 65. That means you'll waste almost a full year's worth of waking hours driving. I've invented a teleporter that will reduce your commute to 1 second every day. The only glitch is that your molecular makeup may be incompatible with my device, and there's no way to tell for sure. If it is, you'll disintegrat…

No. Because your proposal is very different for two reasons. One risk vs reward. In the robo-car example the pay off is 20-80x of lost life to gained time. You get a lot of time for very little risk. But your example is 1.03x. The second is the distribution of risk over the years. With the driving I take a little risk to gain a little time each day for 30 years. In your example I take all of the risk up front and the…

Right. Point being that expected value of drawing from a probability distribution isn't enough to explain people's preferences. We care a lot about the whole shape. So it's a little reductive to just tally up the expected time cost and call it figured.

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#285

On V2V / V2X Wireless Communications > The major concern here is a protocol compatibility and efficiency of communication since the decision should happen in milliseconds and there is no time for extra computation related to differences in a communication “language”. And again, security is NOT ON THE LIST. How destructive do you think it would be if I were to multiply my velocity vector by -1 while traveling on the f…

Yeah. No one thinks of security. Remember how responsive jeeps was to the jeep hacks. And then we will send updates via USB drives in the mail. What happens when someone hacks our automated cars and just tells them to keep accelerating. Think of the devastation. You really think any manufacturers are giving much concern to security you are sorely mistaken. They will give us a warm fuzzy that they are, but everywhere I have worked development and new features have trumped security. The NSA will find back doors as usual and will keep them secret to exploit while others will find them and exploit them. Target and home depot can't keep your credit cards safe, what on earth makes you think Volvo or Tesla or Ford will keep you safe

Also what about all the displaced jobs. Mechanics, insurance agents, drivers, after market parts, junk yards, and others. Best argument I hear is they will have opportunities for the new jobs automated cars will provide. But no one can say what those opportunities are.

Just remember your perfect automated car is only as smart as the imperfect programmer who programmed it.

I am cynical about the inability to own a car the loss of freedom, the near constant tracking of my movements by corporations who will sell your soul for money, the targeted advertising and all the other crap. That being said I think the technology itself is awesome.

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese are working on self driving cars also. I hope the western company technology is allowed also, though. This is for the betterment of mankind after all.

The competitor Uber couldn't overthrow ? I never see mentions of them, I'll look into it.

Didi, but also Baidu and almost every Chinese car company.

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#287
post #19

I find it odd the way people talk about moving through the levels sequentially without really acknowledging there's a massive phase change that happens somewhere between level two and four, where a self-driving car could easily be way more dangerous than the average human driver. That comes as soon as you have a situation where the automation has to be able to handle all foreseeable scenarios without failing because…

One edge case I have seen is law enforcement officers using loudspeakers on their cars to give drivers specific instructions such as to pull over in a certain spot or move out of a certain area. How will level 5 autonomous vehicles handle that case? There is no useful visual signal, just the audio. Will they need speech recognition and NLP that works in noisy environments?

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#288

If it’s true that algorithms are statistically better than drivers then we shouldn’t let people to drive." It is difficult to decide if this statement is idealistic, naive, or written by an algorithm. I love motorcycles, as do many millions of other people, despite the obvious safety risks. This may come as a shock, but minimizing risk isn't the sole goal of everyone's life on earth. By this logic, we shouldn't "let"…

> By this logic, we shouldn't "let" people play sports because purpose built robots would be statistically better. I don't think this is a fair comparison. There were about ~35000 motor vehicle deaths in 2015[1]. When we have the opportunity to reduce this number to (nearly) zero, the question becomes: is it worth paying 35000 lives to allow our society to satisfy its recreational driving needs? I think the answer is…

I was pointing out that the author's logic is hyperbolic and naive, making it seem as if statistically minimizing risk is the only thing that matters to anyone. To your point, we also "pay" ~88,000 lives per year to allow our society to satisfy its recreational alcohol consumption needs, but that is what society has chosen.

I do agree it is a problem that we share roads, and many people don't take the risks seriously. People's poor judgement, e.g. using apps on their phone while going 70mph in a 3,000+ lb vehicle is disturbing. Motorcyclists experience things like this vividly, and often daily. Maybe fully automated cars are the only answer to that though, because relying on improving everyone's judgement, or policing it, might be the least realistic solution conceived (for anything).

Of course we want to make driving safer, and in that way autonomous capabilities are a ground breaking safety feature. Other cars probably need to be safer too, since we are a very, very long way away from even a simple majority of autonomous cars. Maybe one day we'll see the "end game" of zero-ish road fatalities, but that relatively distant possibility is not a reason to essentially outlaw driving. Keep in mind autonomous cars are also very expensive, and will be for some time. If the "outlaw" part came a bit too early, it could end up looking a lot like "People too poor to buy and maintain a brand-new car are not allowed to drive on public roads".

There are plenty more reasonable steps to be taken before that, e.g. since teenager drivers account for a disproportionate number of accidents/injuries, so maybe we don't need high-school kids driving. Or, maybe we need to require extra licensing for a housewife that wants to pilot a 5,500lb Escalade at highway speeds. Maybe people should go to jail instead of paying a tiny fine if they are caught using Social Media while driving.

The list goes on, without copping to the naive, even juvenile, conclusion that outlawing human drivers is logical because autonomous cars are safer.

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#289
post #287
post #19

I find it odd the way people talk about moving through the levels sequentially without really acknowledging there's a massive phase change that happens somewhere between level two and four, where a self-driving car could easily be way more dangerous than the average human driver. That comes as soon as you have a situation where the automation has to be able to handle all foreseeable scenarios without failing because…

One edge case I have seen is law enforcement officers using loudspeakers on their cars to give drivers specific instructions such as to pull over in a certain spot or move out of a certain area. How will level 5 autonomous vehicles handle that case? There is no useful visual signal, just the audio. Will they need speech recognition and NLP that works in noisy environments?

In theory you could have an API integration with law enforcement that allow them to switch the car into "pull over" mode.

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Simpler than that; Nissan's been working on it, and it's finally been announced: http://www.autoblog.com/2017/01/10/nissan-self-driving-cars-... > For example, Sierhuis described a situation where a temporary construction site, something like a crew repairing a traffic light, would confuse the car. Not only would the traffic signal be missing for the AI to process, but we would also have a worker waving cars through…

Except that Google was able to handle construction sites, traffic cones, and people directing traffic last year. Watch Urmson's video from SXSW.[1] Google has put a lot of effort into handling unusual situations. Those cars driving on residential streets in Mountain View and Austin have accumulated data on the hard cases. The California DMV continues to publish autonomous vehicle crash reports. The last one was in Oc…

I'm curious: when do you think a stage 3, 4, and 5 vehicle will be readily available on the market (specifically the United States)?
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