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Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

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Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#271

Post by jrowley »

secabeen wrote: post #253
Animats wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big change is between levels 2 and 3. That changes who's responsible. At level 2, the driver is responsible for accidents; at level 3, the manufacturer is. California and Michigan have already enacted that into law, that's what NHTSA recommends, Volvo's CEO publicly endorses that, and the big US automakers accept it. Tesla finally accepts it. Uber is still whining, but that's Uber. Volvo's is starting a 100 vehic…

You have hit the nail on the head here. The 2/3 liability transition is a big one. My guess is that companies will actually delay deploying level 3 systems until they are nearly perfect. This will result in systems that seem really really good at driving (especially in sunny southern california), yet still insist that the driver wiggle the wheel or show some other sign of attentiveness to prevent liability transfer.

I can't wait for the Show HN hacks to get around these requirements.

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#272

Post by agumonkey »

Obi_Juan_Kenobi wrote: post #268
agumonkey wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're already thinking two steps ahead. This would mean sharing SDV. I don't know if people still want to own cars or not. ps: a stream of e-SDV, possibly solar recharged would not be a sad thing for humanity.

Once people see the cost of ownership vs. sharing, I think the decision will be made for many. Ownership would likely persist at some level, but it's hard to imagine it as much more than a slim minority.

I mostly agree. That said, to some personalities, emotional attachment prevails. I can tell you I'd rather pay more than not "own" some stuff. I had to make room and sell the less useful things and it's gut thing, it's just hard. It's a part of me, of memories ... I think a car often fits this. That's what you took your girlfriend in, your kids to holidays, etc

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#273

Post by aurelianito »

gertef wrote: post #266
RangerScience wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Simpler than that; Nissan's been working on it, and it's finally been announced: http://www.autoblog.com/2017/01/10/nissan-self-driving-cars-... > For example, Sierhuis described a situation where a temporary construction site, something like a crew repairing a traffic light, would confuse the car. Not only would the traffic signal be missing for the AI to process, but we would also have a worker waving cars through…

Drone cars! Why isn't remote control driving progressing apace with self-driving cars? Outsource Uber driving to lowest-wage drivers in India, Bangladesh, or Nigeria.

Latency

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#274

Post by seanmcdirmid »

agumonkey wrote: post #265
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure, I think Asia could be the first destination since they have the least vested interest in personal cars, and the most pressing problems that self driving cars could solve. The only issue is training the cars to deal with lawless pedestrians and e-bikes.

Possibly, but commpanies need to export/produce there, at an affordable price. I thought they'd plan to go for western markets first. If an asian company catches up fast then yeah it will move faster there.

The Chinese are working on self driving cars also. I hope the western company technology is allowed also, though. This is for the betterment of mankind after all.

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#275

Post by [deleted] »

agumonkey wrote: post #265
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure, I think Asia could be the first destination since they have the least vested interest in personal cars, and the most pressing problems that self driving cars could solve. The only issue is training the cars to deal with lawless pedestrians and e-bikes.

Possibly, but commpanies need to export/produce there, at an affordable price. I thought they'd plan to go for western markets first. If an asian company catches up fast then yeah it will move faster there.

[deleted]

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#276

Post by AndrewKemendo »

So where is the traction proof for a "Proven market need" for self driving cars?

Whenever we discuss new ventures on HN, the number one thing repeated is the YC mantra "Make something that people want." Yet I don't see the "solves a concrete problem that people are looking for solutions now for."

You can certainly make the case based on long range conjecture that there would be big benefits: lower fatalities, more free time, less congestion etc... but those are all projections assuming very high adoption.

However that whole "We need this now" attitude of making a winning product seems devoid - especially for the 90% of the potential users who would need to adopt them.

I personally think that these types of technologies don't have the same kind of demand that you'd look for in a typical breakthrough startup, but that technologists like us the HN crowd basically push hard enough to make them a reality.

I ask this because as someone who is working on a frontier technology (Augmented Reality) there are always a million questions around traction and user demand. Nobody ever wants to hear "we're going to create the market" yet it seems like that's exactly what we're doing with self driving cars.

edit: It's also possible that "startups" are not the right organizational structure to try and launch moonshot or frontier type technologies to the mainstream. So the same rules don't apply.

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#277

Post by ghaff »

secabeen wrote: post #253
Animats wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big change is between levels 2 and 3. That changes who's responsible. At level 2, the driver is responsible for accidents; at level 3, the manufacturer is. California and Michigan have already enacted that into law, that's what NHTSA recommends, Volvo's CEO publicly endorses that, and the big US automakers accept it. Tesla finally accepts it. Uber is still whining, but that's Uber. Volvo's is starting a 100 vehic…

You have hit the nail on the head here. The 2/3 liability transition is a big one. My guess is that companies will actually delay deploying level 3 systems until they are nearly perfect. This will result in systems that seem really really good at driving (especially in sunny southern california), yet still insist that the driver wiggle the wheel or show some other sign of attentiveness to prevent liability transfer.

They won't delay deploying the systems. They'll delay calling them Level 3 or the consumer-speak equivalent. Though absent really obtrusive monitoring (like checking for eyes being on the road), are people who text while driving today really going to stop doing so when "assistive driving" systems can safely get down the highway almost always?

That said, I agree that the liability transfer is a big issue. Although, at some point, expect to see some case that breaks through "It's assistive driving only. Nudge-nudge. Wink-wink."

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#278

Post by agumonkey »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #274
agumonkey wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Possibly, but commpanies need to export/produce there, at an affordable price. I thought they'd plan to go for western markets first. If an asian company catches up fast then yeah it will move faster there.

The Chinese are working on self driving cars also. I hope the western company technology is allowed also, though. This is for the betterment of mankind after all.

The competitor Uber couldn't overthrow ? I never see mentions of them, I'll look into it.

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#279

Post by ghaff »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #276

So where is the traction proof for a "Proven market need" for self driving cars? Whenever we discuss new ventures on HN, the number one thing repeated is the YC mantra "Make something that people want." Yet I don't see the "solves a concrete problem that people are looking for solutions now for." You can certainly make the case based on long range conjecture that there would be big benefits: lower fatalities, more fr…

Really? Even if you limit self-driving to "I can kick back and watch TV on my highway commute" that seems as if it's an automobile feature that people would pay a non-trivial premium for. And, perhaps more importantly, would choose Brand X with the feature over Brand Y without it.

There's a big market for convenience features in cars.

(If you're talking the potentially many decades off roboUber, I don't necessarily disagree.)

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#280

Post by AndrewKemendo »

ghaff wrote: post #279
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #276

So where is the traction proof for a "Proven market need" for self driving cars? Whenever we discuss new ventures on HN, the number one thing repeated is the YC mantra "Make something that people want." Yet I don't see the "solves a concrete problem that people are looking for solutions now for." You can certainly make the case based on long range conjecture that there would be big benefits: lower fatalities, more fr…

Really? Even if you limit self-driving to "I can kick back and watch TV on my highway commute" that seems as if it's an automobile feature that people would pay a non-trivial premium for. And, perhaps more importantly, would choose Brand X with the feature over Brand Y without it. There's a big market for convenience features in cars. (If you're talking the potentially many decades off roboUber, I don't necessarily d…

If you're talking the potentially many decades off roboUber, I don't necessarily disagree.

I mean that's the whole selling point...and it would basically take that level 5 ability (as demonstrated in many articles and studies) to give you the "I can kick back and watch TV on my highway commute" ability.

Hell you can install an in-dash DVD player now, but that's not the vision of self driving cars.

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