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‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

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Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#131

Post by passthefist »

JohnTHaller wrote: post #54

Welding machine operators are a drop in the bucket compared with the biggest looming job shift on the horizon: truck drivers. It's the most commonly listed job in 29 states and there are millions of them across the US. And most will be replaced by automated driving systems within the next couple decades. Yes, there will be service jobs within trucking, but that will be a small fraction of the 'routine' jobs that auto…

Don't forget the jobs providing services to the people that drive the trucks. Many of those are going to be lost like those old rail and highway towns that built up and then bust when the popular routes changed.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#132

Post by DashRattlesnake »

karmacondon wrote: post #115
Ensorceled wrote: post #65

There are a fair number of comments dismissing this issue with a "retrain or get left behind" and expressing not a lot of sympathy for those who don't. Remember, the average IQ in the US is just below 100[1]. Exactly what kind of jobs do you expect to retrain these people for? And how are they equipped to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps? Most of these jobs provided on the job training or apprenticeships so…

If the two options are retraining vs an overhaul of the economic system, I think retraining is much more likely. No one wants to change careers. I certainly don't. But the economic realities are what they are. It would be nice to change the economy with basic income or government work programs, both of which I'm in favor of. I just don't see how that will realistically happen in the next 10-15 years. So we need to ma…

How to do you "retrain" to get abstract "skills in areas like critical thinking and problem-solving"? When I think "retraining" I think training to perform a different kind of routine job in a different domain or industry. For example, decades ago, the NYT retrained its Linotype operators to a similar computer data entry job[1].

[1] https://vimeo.com/127605643 or https://archive.org/details/FarewellEtaoinShrdlu or https://www.nytimes.com/video/insider/100000004687429/farewe...

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#133

Post by tptacek »

metaphorm wrote: post #104
tptacek wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you conceding the economics? (You probably should, unless I'm missing some subtlety of your argument.) That's really all I care about here.

no, I'm not conceding the economics. I don't have any hidden subtlety here, it seems fairly obvious to me that elder-care is redistributive (money from old people to their servants) rather than productive. quite a lot of service jobs are like this, except in many other cases the redistribution is not from accumulated wealth from the past, but from newly produced wealth in the present. that might be of some net econom…

This isn't even wrong. In market transactions, there's no dichotomy between "redistribution" and "productivity". There's "redistributive" tax and economic policies that governments enact, by political fiat. Those policies are almost the opposite of market transactions.

Using the definition you've proposed, it's hard to think of any service transaction, from doctors visits to architectural consults, that isn't somehow "redistributive".

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#134

Post by ska »

chrisseaton wrote: post #72
knieveltech wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's only true if you define "middle-class" as white collar. Welders make decent money, 35-60k on average for bog standard fabrication work. Easy to double those figures working for the oil and gas industries. Welders that can cert to Nuclear industry standards can easily triple those figure, and underwater welders can make over $300k in a year.

> That's only true if you define "middle-class" as white collar. Isn't that how everyone defines it? University educated, cultured, white collar workers? To me, middle-class means a doctor, lawyer, teacher, regulated professionals, things like that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22gCw4iDdu4

Although typical usage of middle class includes professionals, it has not historically been equivalent. It is a social definition, and not purely economic. It would typically also include some skilled trades, managers, civil service, etc.

It is usually more effective to think about this as being more about social capital than monetary capital.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#135

Post by shkkmo »

metaphorm wrote: post #104
tptacek wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you conceding the economics? (You probably should, unless I'm missing some subtlety of your argument.) That's really all I care about here.

no, I'm not conceding the economics. I don't have any hidden subtlety here, it seems fairly obvious to me that elder-care is redistributive (money from old people to their servants) rather than productive. quite a lot of service jobs are like this, except in many other cases the redistribution is not from accumulated wealth from the past, but from newly produced wealth in the present. that might be of some net econom…

I believe the general view is that 'non value producing' service jobs add value by saving the time of and thus amplifying the productiveness of individuals with 'value producing' jobs.

If you are comparing the economic effect of a growing industry of elder care to a society where no elder care occurs, then I can see how you might draw the conclusion that growth in this industry is a waste because these are not 'value producing' jobs.

In reality, a society where no elder care occurs is not the alternative as some form of elder care would be taking place. People who work doing elder care are amplifying the productiveness of the friends, family and neighbors who do have 'value producing' jobs.

Personally, I think our current styles of elder care and our ageist biases waste a lot of economic potential and social value by wasting the time of our elders. I think that finding ways to tap this potential while providing better care for our elders would be the OPPOSITE of spiritually corrosive. As it is, many find working in elder care quite rewarding, especially when that elder care happens in less institutional and dehumanizing settings.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#136

Post by VLM »

monknomo wrote: post #82
vostok wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Traditional elite jobs such as sales, banking (not trading), and management seem to have also resisted automation for the time being.

Assuming massive automation, and accompanying decreased employment and people-with-money, who is going to the bank, who is a prospective customer and who needs managed? Given sufficient layoffs the demand for these middleman jobs will also decline. I mean, a workplace run by people needs a manager for about every five people. A workplace that runs robots needs a manager. Salespeople only matter if there is someone wi…

When I shopped for hardware at Circuit City I had commissioned salespeople hovering over me who knew nothing about electronics, computers, or hardware but wanted to sell me extended maintenance plans.

Then I shopped for hardware at Best Buy and Comp USA and they had sales clerks who shoved boxes on the shelves matching the UPC code, but they didn't even pretend to know anything. It was somewhat less annoying than Circuit City.

Now I shop for hardware at Amazon because I'm addicted to the free shipping and if its not significantly cheaper at tigerdirect or whatever in another browser tab, well, I'm not going to make a special order. Amazon doesn't have salespeople. I've never talked to a human at Amazon and probably never will. Its even less annoying than Best Buy!

Similar experience with banking. I'm old old old compared to the stereotypical HN demographic and when I was a young graduate I would take my physical paper check to an old fashioned local bank (long since merged into international megacorp) and a friend of mine's roommate was my cashier and I'd deposit that paper check into my account and get a paper receipt. Around the most recent financial crash I moved to a credit union and with direct deposits and ATMs I haven't been inside the building in the decade since... If you assume your average bank user will only spend an hour every decade moving to a new bank/CU, then America doesn't need many bankers, does it?

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#137

Post by throwaway45321 »

nickff wrote: post #101
fullshark wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's a better idea than gov't programs for adult education / job training? Most companies aren't interested in investing the resources to retrain employees unless training lasts a few months at most. Even market solutions will require a lot of gov't interference to work imo (things like job "mortgages" i.e. student loans for adults).

Job training and retraining programs don't work very well, which is why you see so many interviews with people who have done 5-10 of them. There are a number of studies that show this, and none (that I am aware of) which demonstrate good efficacy (and I would expect the programs to trumpet the latter result). Perhaps some sort of improved retraining program would work, but I don't think we should be dumping money int…

> as I believe that skilled jobs help the worker lead a happier, more fulfilling life, as well as helping the people who benefit from the work product

I can't really speak to the second assertion here, but I wanted to chime in from the other side of the first.

I'm a mid level developer (late twenties) and if I could find a job that was 'routine' that paid what I make now, and kept me from having to deal with the public, I would take it in a heartbeat. Programming is interesting, sure, but the days that it's an absolute grind are awful. I'd gladly take a job that would let me stay out of the way of the people who are very much passionate about our shared profession.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#138

Post by WhoBeI »

jcbeard wrote: post #76

Same basic trend we saw with industrial revolution. People lost their somewhat skilled (for the time) jobs to steam powered machines. As the recent election also put front and center, we're also competing with the entire planet for jobs. How do we compete with the Terminator and the foreigner bogeyman? You don't directly. Nations build a social safety net that cushions the churn of jobs, universal healthcare so that…

Been thinking the same thing of late. There are many similarities. Lets hope it doesn't last as long though.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#139

Post by ska »

lordCarbonFiber wrote: post #4

This is, for society at the very least, a "good thing". Who's dream is it to perform a "relatively narrow set of repeated tasks" for 8 hours a day? As mentioned, take these "prime aged workers" teach them skills, and suddenly we have a spike in actually valuable labour instead of a middle class of unfulfilled office drones stuck in a stupor. IMO, the framing should be look at this amazing business opportunity to onbo…

   "As mentioned, take these "prime aged workers" teach them skills, and suddenly we have a spike in actually valuable labour."
It's a noble goal, but history has a wide range of cautionary tales to offer. Anybody who tells you this is a straightforward process (or even highly probable to succeed) is either naive or selling something.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#140

Post by hamandcheese »

uiri wrote: post #113
Ensorceled wrote: post #65

There are a fair number of comments dismissing this issue with a "retrain or get left behind" and expressing not a lot of sympathy for those who don't. Remember, the average IQ in the US is just below 100[1]. Exactly what kind of jobs do you expect to retrain these people for? And how are they equipped to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps? Most of these jobs provided on the job training or apprenticeships so…

the average IQ in the US is just below 100 This represents a fundamental misunderstanding of IQ as a measurement. IQ is defined as a normal distribution with a median of 100 and a standard deviation of 15. The average IQ in the US is 100 for any IQ test calibrated to measure the US population. No absolute statements regarding intelligence can be made on the basis of IQs; only relative statements about how an individu…

It's meaningful in this context, since, chances are, those commenting here have a much higher IQ than 100.
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