Live data from Hacker News

‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

wsj.com

71–80 of 206 posts

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#71
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who is going to 'take' people and teach them skills?

We can start with the ones crying about a shortage of programmers and engineers (read, ones that think the cost of employees is too high). If you can impart a skill for $X at a discounted salary of delta(Y) so long as X ~ Y you're breaking even or making money over the the 1-2 year time frame the average person spends at a job. Note this is how finance has been hiring line engineers for years.

Without exception the people crying about programmers and engineers want the market flooded so they can pay lower salaries. If there really was an epic shortage of programmers we'd all be getting executive level compensation.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Welding is also just about the least middle-class job I can think of.

That's only true if you define "middle-class" as white collar. Welders make decent money, 35-60k on average for bog standard fabrication work. Easy to double those figures working for the oil and gas industries. Welders that can cert to Nuclear industry standards can easily triple those figure, and underwater welders can make over $300k in a year.

> That's only true if you define "middle-class" as white collar.

Isn't that how everyone defines it? University educated, cultured, white collar workers? To me, middle-class means a doctor, lawyer, teacher, regulated professionals, things like that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22gCw4iDdu4

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#73
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Already is: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-15/world-ene... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/for-cheap...

That is not a complete Electrical system, just the panels which are only cheaper in area's with ideal solar output. Go north where there is less sun, and more clouds and the cost starts to rise fast, further Electrical Storage is a major concern since solar only works at most 12 hours a day, you have to something about the other 12. So no Solar is not cheaper when looked at in total cost to supply useable power to pe…

> Further the cost of Coal is higher today largely because of artificial fees places on it in the form of Carbon Taxes, EPA regulations, etc. While I agree many of these are needed and benifitial to the long term it is this has to be factored in to the statement that Solar is "cheaper"

Depends. Fees that exist to influence direction of growth for opinionated reasons definitely represent a bias, but to NOT price in the shared impact (i.e. environmental impact, use of a globally limited resource (coal), etc) represents a bias in the opposite direction. I'm willing to bet (purely personal opinion) that fossil fuel costs do NOT fully include those common costs, and thus more than wipe out any bias represented in other fees.

I perfectly acknowledge that using "renewable" resources all have shared costs as well, and likely involve some sort of non-renewable impact. I'm just saying you need to include those costs to have an even remote chance of a fair comparison.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#74

"To counter these trends, the U.S. must invest in raising the skills of the workers most likely to be affected by the disappearance of routine jobs..." Not sure how's that going to play out for example a welding machine operator can't become a mechanical engineer in a short span of time because those routine jobs are eventually going to be consumed by automated robots, per this study. Why not motivate people to look…

elder-care cannot possibly be a solid basis for the economy. they are not in their working years and are not (on the average) contributing positive sums to GDP or tax revenue. there is a humanitarian case to be made for improved quality of life for elderly people, but I can't imagine that there is a reasonable economic case to be made for it, unless you're arguing that the elder-care industry is just an elaborate sub…

Consider even more traditional methods of elder care such as apprenticeships and village elders.

It is rather mysterious how we take kids in prime physical shape and mush for brains and lock them into ignorant echo chambers for years while we take wise and skilled old people with worn out bodies and brains full of very expensive experience and lock them into lonely old folks homes next door and then make sure they never mix. Its almost like our culture is so stupidly designed someone is trying to sabotage it.

You'd have to expand the concept of apprenticeship beyond current restrictive beliefs and expand the idea of teachers aide quite a bit. If all some old duffer does is make sure the kids don't tip over an unchained acetylene bottle in shop class, its still worth it if all he does is sip coffee the rest of the semester. Three old duffers stand at the table saw all day doing nothing but safety and technique critique.

Advanced disciplinary procedures are interesting to contemplate. Not so much the return of corporal punishment but you'd be surprised how well kids wanting attention can react to being assigned to work with a team of five old people. You will do your math homework alone or with the five grandmas ...

Note that this is a fair trade unlike your gerontocracy because the kids derive considerable value from the old people.

Where it gets weird is when you mix unemployed people in. Say due to ageism I'll never get paid to write code again because I'd be too expensive or unwilling to work 60 hour weeks. If welfare paid my bills would it be that bad if I did nothing but volunteer computer lab tech all day?

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#75

There are a fair number of comments dismissing this issue with a "retrain or get left behind" and expressing not a lot of sympathy for those who don't. Remember, the average IQ in the US is just below 100[1]. Exactly what kind of jobs do you expect to retrain these people for? And how are they equipped to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps? Most of these jobs provided on the job training or apprenticeships so…

"Well, who cares if they're retrained. They're not inputting in the economy right now, and before was minimal at that. So why should we invest in do-nothings and laggards and lazy peoples? We'll give money to the people actually doing things, like CEOs and company makers."

--- Is that a good attempt at this new era of pro-trump, anti-worker hatred?

Edit: Seriously now? This kind of commentary is very much on-topic. By definition, low-wage people and poor people have roughly 0 input into the economy. That's not a moral or ethical issue, that's just numbers.

I've seen countless times here, of discussions on which markets to chase after (from HN viewpoint), and many times, entrepreneurs say to not go after the low wage classes - no fungible income.

This commentary also plays in to the idea that "Someone is poor because they do not work hard, and so they deserve that fate. Someone is rich because they worked hard, and due to their working hard are successful." -- These ideas are core to the Republican and Democrat parties, although the Democrats have the idea that it might not, kind of , maybe not be as true. Whereas the Republicans ran the "Welfare Queen", a known fraudster, as the eminent welfare model, that all welfare recipients are like.

I would have figured that at least some people would have seen where that kind of 'quote' would have went towards. There's quite a lot of meat up top there, with core values packed in there by a bulk of one of our political parties.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#76
Same basic trend we saw with industrial revolution. People lost their somewhat skilled (for the time) jobs to steam powered machines. As the recent election also put front and center, we're also competing with the entire planet for jobs. How do we compete with the Terminator and the foreigner bogeyman? You don't directly. Nations build a social safety net that cushions the churn of jobs, universal healthcare so that the stress of loosing your job and healthcare doesn't kill productivity, cheaper (or free) access to entry level college education (community college), and lastly nations need to provide geographic mobility (getting from the place without jobs to one with jobs isn't easy when your bank account balance is -$40 USD). The net effect of all these suggestions would likely be a good bump in long term national GDP and growth...we could likely implement most of them using less than 1/4 of our $600 billion yearly defense budget.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#77
post #67
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Healthcare is not immune from Automation either. there is huge efforts underway to replace Doctors, Nurses, etc with AI.

The current demand for healthcare is just phenomenal, with the supply barely meeting it in developed countries, and not so much in developing countries. Automation will most likely make it possible to have better skill division. e.g. a heart surgeon from the US could operate on a patient in Gambia, remotely. It seems unlikely that AI/automation would replace the surgeon altogether, at least in the next couple of deca…

Surgeons are but one small and very specialized part of the Health Industry, just because Surgeons may not be replaced soon (even that I can debate) does not mean the other jobs in Healthcare are as immune, GP's, Nurses, Lab Techs, etc are all targets.

the comment I replied to was wanting to take People in Job A, and retrain them for Job B in healthcare as a second career do to Job A being automated. You are not likly to be a Surgeon as a Second Career unless you are already a non-surgical doctor. You are not going to take a welder and make them a Surgeon as a second career most likely.

As such it was implied that Healthcare was a "safe" industry for people seeking refuge from having their jobs automated away. I was pointing out it is not.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#78
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is, for society at the very least, a "good thing". That depends on if you live in a society that believes people should be free to pursue their 'dreams' or in one that uses work as a measure of a persons worth. The US is the latter.

What's an example of the former?

There aren't any. Nobody is going to reward you for your dreams.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#79
"The paper, called “Disappearing Routine Jobs,” provides more evidence that the transformation of work in the U.S.—from an industrial economy to a digital one where routine work is automated or outsourced and the remaining jobs are concentrated in low-paid service work or high-skilled knowledge work"

Note the "or outsourced" piece. If the prevailing wage in the US is $20+ an hour vs a 3rd or quarter of that in the developing world there is no way the average US worker can compete. While I get the automation argument, that still doesn't explain the large (seemingly majority) of retail goods in the United States are that manufactured in lower labor cost countries. Not everyone is cut out to be a knowledge worker. As much as I personally like tech, this is not going to be the great job creator for Middle America.

There are still a lot of jobs that can't be automated and/or won't be for a long time. If it was possible to automate as much as some would have you believe in the short term straight up there are some robotics companies that would have not closed down (Willow Garage), and you would be seeing a lot more traction with others doing more interesting things instead of telepresence robots and clunky household devices such as the Roomba.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#80
post #5

It is interesting that the people who are losing jobs aren't retraining. What exactly is Trump/Republican party going to do to help with that? Bring back Coal when renewable is cheaper?

Spain had to deal with major cuts to their coal industry too: Loss of competitiveness closed mines that employed tens of thousands of people directly, and entire towns indirectly. Asturias, the region with the most mines went from being near the top of Spain's GDP to the bottom third, and has never recovered.

What was done then, and it's still in progress in the few mines that are already open, was to provide amazing early retirement deals: Instead of laying off young workers, anyone over 50 gets to retire with full pay. While that minimized the pain to secondary industries, as the retirees still kept their income, The region ultimately produced less, and massive emigration followed. This doesn't make me wish for this solution on anyone.

The best solutions, which I don't think are practical in US rural communities for cultural issues, is to incentivize replacement industries: For instance, St Louis hollowed out for decades, just like Detroit, but the city is doing better lately by fostering technology startups near its universities. This is revitalizing areas of the city that were slums for decades.

It seems difficult for American rural areas to do this though, if just because of the big culture clash between the old school America and people that create companies imitating San Francisco culture.

Post reply on HN