‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing • Hacker News Board

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#101

Post by nickff » Tue, Jan 03, 2017, 6:21 PM UTC

fullshark wrote: post #94

noobiemcfoob wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with your diagnosis, but I fear the knee jerk reaction to solve it with government programs. In my mind, we need to do more lateral thinking on what can make value for the economy and why.

What's a better idea than gov't programs for adult education / job training? Most companies aren't interested in investing the resources to retrain employees unless training lasts a few months at most. Even market solutions will require a lot of gov't interference to work imo (things like job "mortgages" i.e. student loans for adults).

Job training and retraining programs don't work very well, which is why you see so many interviews with people who have done 5-10 of them. There are a number of studies that show this, and none (that I am aware of) which demonstrate good efficacy (and I would expect the programs to trumpet the latter result).

Perhaps some sort of improved retraining program would work, but I don't think we should be dumping money into the existing programs. I should also add that I would very much like these programs to work, and am very disappointed that they don't, as I believe that skilled jobs help the worker lead a happier, more fulfilling life, as well as helping the people who benefit from the work product.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#102

Post by knieveltech » Tue, Jan 03, 2017, 6:21 PM UTC

ben_w wrote: post #63

knieveltech wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You assume that blame would be misplaced? Liberals tossed workers and organized labor overboard ~30 years ago: http://www.commondreams.org/views/2016/11/23/yes-democratic-...

I would assume that the Democrats (as a non-American, what's up with calling them 'liberals'?) being out of power for four years will make them literally incapable of being why Trump fails to solve these problems.

Meh. The Democratic party coopted the term liberal and use it in all of their marketing. So much so that their opponents now use the term as a naked slur. shrug Politics in the US is stupid and getting dumber and scarier by the day.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#103

Post by vinceguidry » Tue, Jan 03, 2017, 6:23 PM UTC

tptacek wrote: post #64

ergothus wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not the above poster, but their point appears to be that caring for the elderly doesn't CONTRIBUTE to the economy (i.e. as a transaction it adds to GDP, but in terms of value-creation it's near zilch. So while a blue-collar worker might add value by creating a product, an elder care worker adds only humanitarian benefit. (And unlike a doctor that can help those blue collar workers continue to work, there isn't even m…

That was the "logic" I took from that comment too, but it still doesn't make any sense. We spend money on all sorts of things that don't "contribute" (in this weird, narrow sense) to the economy. But of course, most things we spend money on do in fact contribute to the economy: the money goes into the pockets of the people providing the service, who go on to buy things with that money and fuel the economy. That's wha…

An economy can be based around digging holes and moving the dirt between them, if that's what people wanted to happen.

We literally pulled an entire nation out of a depression in order to go to war. Fighting a war has to be the least "productive" activity imaginable for humans to engage in, yet we did it and it managed to do the opposite of break the nation's back.

The only criteria is that lots of people need it and are willing to pay for it. The second bit doesn't even have to be economic, a society could simply make it a matter of politics and allocate tax revenue towards it.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#104

Post by metaphorm » Tue, Jan 03, 2017, 6:23 PM UTC

tptacek wrote: post #87

metaphorm wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll ask you, then, to focus less on the GDP/value-add side of the argument and more on the "spiritually corrosive to individuals and society" side of the argument.

Are you conceding the economics? (You probably should, unless I'm missing some subtlety of your argument.) That's really all I care about here.

no, I'm not conceding the economics. I don't have any hidden subtlety here, it seems fairly obvious to me that elder-care is redistributive (money from old people to their servants) rather than productive. quite a lot of service jobs are like this, except in many other cases the redistribution is not from accumulated wealth from the past, but from newly produced wealth in the present.

that might be of some net economic benefit anyway, purely on the basis of freeing up money that would otherwise be stuck in sequestration from the rest of the economy. however, I'm not sure what "flaw" in my economic claim you're trying to point out. can you be more explicit?

I would ask you, however, to actually care more about the non-economic part of the argument. I believe that's the more important part.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#105

Post by ams6110 » Tue, Jan 03, 2017, 6:26 PM UTC

cylinder wrote: post #42

knightofmars wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is anecdotal evidence from conversations I've had but it has been recurring. A portion of the 18-50 "prime aged workers" believe that when people say "teach them skills" or "provide continuing education" they take it as being told they're stupid. Which, to me, is a viewpoint that makes sense. They are the group that completed high-school and went straight into the workforce or didn't complete high-school at all.…

..

And you had no role in this at all? The school sucked you in and made you take out student loans before you ever had a chance in 8 years to look at the job market for what they were making you learn?

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#106

Post by knieveltech » Tue, Jan 03, 2017, 6:27 PM UTC

chrisseaton wrote: post #72

knieveltech wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's only true if you define "middle-class" as white collar. Welders make decent money, 35-60k on average for bog standard fabrication work. Easy to double those figures working for the oil and gas industries. Welders that can cert to Nuclear industry standards can easily triple those figure, and underwater welders can make over $300k in a year.

> That's only true if you define "middle-class" as white collar. Isn't that how everyone defines it? University educated, cultured, white collar workers? To me, middle-class means a doctor, lawyer, teacher, regulated professionals, things like that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22gCw4iDdu4

No, or it's growing less common outside of academic circles. It is frequently used (especially in popular media) to denote little beyond personal income. See dragonwriter's comment for a thumbnail critique of the practice.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#107

Post by the8472 » Tue, Jan 03, 2017, 6:27 PM UTC

syshum wrote: post #44

toomuchtodo wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Already is: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-15/world-ene... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/for-cheap...

That is not a complete Electrical system, just the panels which are only cheaper in area's with ideal solar output. Go north where there is less sun, and more clouds and the cost starts to rise fast, further Electrical Storage is a major concern since solar only works at most 12 hours a day, you have to something about the other 12. So no Solar is not cheaper when looked at in total cost to supply useable power to pe…

> Carbon Taxes, EPA regulations, etc

few countries have effective carbon taxes. the EU emissions trading system isn't doing its job for example because they handed out too many credits which deflated their price.

Regulations also apply to renewables. especially wind and the necessary cross-country powerlines suffer from nimbyism.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#108

Post by beguiledfoil » Tue, Jan 03, 2017, 6:30 PM UTC

metaphorm wrote: post #26

CodeSheikh wrote: post #11

"To counter these trends, the U.S. must invest in raising the skills of the workers most likely to be affected by the disappearance of routine jobs..." Not sure how's that going to play out for example a welding machine operator can't become a mechanical engineer in a short span of time because those routine jobs are eventually going to be consumed by automated robots, per this study. Why not motivate people to look…

elder-care cannot possibly be a solid basis for the economy. they are not in their working years and are not (on the average) contributing positive sums to GDP or tax revenue. there is a humanitarian case to be made for improved quality of life for elderly people, but I can't imagine that there is a reasonable economic case to be made for it, unless you're arguing that the elder-care industry is just an elaborate sub…

>but I can't imagine that there is a reasonable economic case to be made for it

Median net worth of a retiree is $210,000. Many have saved for care in retirement and therefore will be able to 'demand' it in the market. And I don't believe that includes income from Social Security (which is just a forced savings plan).

>It seems to me that what is needed is alternative industries that are booming because they create new economic opportunities in a generative fashion.

This is word soup.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#109

Post by ams6110 » Tue, Jan 03, 2017, 6:30 PM UTC

knieveltech wrote: post #71

lordCarbonFiber wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can start with the ones crying about a shortage of programmers and engineers (read, ones that think the cost of employees is too high). If you can impart a skill for $X at a discounted salary of delta(Y) so long as X ~ Y you're breaking even or making money over the the 1-2 year time frame the average person spends at a job. Note this is how finance has been hiring line engineers for years.

Without exception the people crying about programmers and engineers want the market flooded so they can pay lower salaries. If there really was an epic shortage of programmers we'd all be getting executive level compensation.

Not really. There's a maximum value on the worth of programming work, as defined by the demand for the product the programmers are producing.

It's the flip side of why high minimum wages cause more unemployment. Some work activities are just not worth $15/hr.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#110

Post by st3v3r » Tue, Jan 03, 2017, 6:32 PM UTC

kefka wrote: post #75

Ensorceled wrote: post #65

There are a fair number of comments dismissing this issue with a "retrain or get left behind" and expressing not a lot of sympathy for those who don't. Remember, the average IQ in the US is just below 100[1]. Exactly what kind of jobs do you expect to retrain these people for? And how are they equipped to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps? Most of these jobs provided on the job training or apprenticeships so…

"Well, who cares if they're retrained. They're not inputting in the economy right now, and before was minimal at that. So why should we invest in do-nothings and laggards and lazy peoples? We'll give money to the people actually doing things, like CEOs and company makers." --- Is that a good attempt at this new era of pro-trump, anti-worker hatred? Edit: Seriously now? This kind of commentary is very much on-topic. B…

I don't think there's anything 'new' about it.