U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#61

Post by ClayFerguson » Fri, Dec 30, 2016, 9:26 PM UTC

alpsgolden wrote: post #47

ClayFerguson wrote: post #12

If we ever decriminalize Marijuana at the Federal level, that seems to me like it would mean millions of prisoners held for offenses involving only that drug would need to be set free. In my mind it is a horrible injustice to jail people for a relatively harmless substance like THC. I think in 100 years, more evolved humans will look back on the THC incarcerations the same way we now look upon the Salem Witch trials,…

"If we ever decriminalize Marijuana at the Federal level, that seems to me like it would mean millions of prisoners held for offenses involving only that drug would need to be set free." Millions? Millions?? Where on Earth are you getting "millions" from? And why is this completely absurd and unsubstantiated claim the top voted comment? The idea that millions, or even hundreds of thousands of people are in jail for s…

I would dare say that there have been millions of people whose lives have been affected very badly by the Marijuana laws, however I didn't look up the incarceration statistics, so if you feel the need to correct that number, no problem. Doesn't affect my point at all.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#62

Post by ClayFerguson » Fri, Dec 30, 2016, 9:33 PM UTC

OliverJones wrote: post #58

ClayFerguson wrote: post #12

If we ever decriminalize Marijuana at the Federal level, that seems to me like it would mean millions of prisoners held for offenses involving only that drug would need to be set free. In my mind it is a horrible injustice to jail people for a relatively harmless substance like THC. I think in 100 years, more evolved humans will look back on the THC incarcerations the same way we now look upon the Salem Witch trials,…

Hmmm. The Salem episode lasted seven months from the first accusations (March 1692) to the last hangings (September 1692) and the dissolution of the court appointed to try those people (October 1692). The war on drugs is now about a century old, and going strong. Hopefully, future people will look on both as some kind of collective self-delusion. But the comparison is otherwise unfair to Cotton Mather, Samuel Sewall,…

I think where you lack is in the common sense to realize I wasn't comparing magnitudes or duration of the episodes but was merely pointing out how mass-delusions and brainwashing makes people basically irrational.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#63

Post by rayiner » Fri, Dec 30, 2016, 9:38 PM UTC

nodamage wrote: post #36

rayiner wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are not millions of people being held for offenses only involving marijuana: https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/dofp12.pdf (page 2). There's about 95,000 people in federal prison with a drug offense as their most serious charge. About 11,500 of those charges involved primarily marijuana. (The overwhelming majority of that is for trafficking, not possession.) Rolling Stone estimated about 40,000 people in priso…

It's pretty misleading to look only at federal inmates as they're a relatively small percentage of the overall prison population. There are currently 189,520 total federal inmates ( https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/population_statistics.j... ) out of the total 2,173,800 incarcerated individuals (as per original article) in the US. Probably better to look for a figure that includes state prisons and local jails as…

My post mentions both federal (about 11,500) and federal + state (about 20,000-40,000). The reason for mentioning federal is because BJS has data for marijuana versus other drug offenses for the federal system.

Note that while only a small proportion of the overall prison population is in federal prison, a much larger proportion of drug convicts are in federal prison.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#64

Post by ClayFerguson » Fri, Dec 30, 2016, 9:43 PM UTC

masklinn wrote: post #18

ClayFerguson wrote: post #12

If we ever decriminalize Marijuana at the Federal level, that seems to me like it would mean millions of prisoners held for offenses involving only that drug would need to be set free. In my mind it is a horrible injustice to jail people for a relatively harmless substance like THC. I think in 100 years, more evolved humans will look back on the THC incarcerations the same way we now look upon the Salem Witch trials,…

> If we ever decriminalize Marijuana at the Federal level, that seems to me like it would mean millions of prisoners held for offenses involving only that drug would need to be set free. Decriminalisation isn't necessarily retroactive, that it's now legal or less illegal doesn't mean it was at the time of conviction. For instance despite the Labouchere Amendment ("gross indencency") having been mostly repealed in 196…

I predict that when (not if, but when) the Federal Gov finally does make Marijuana fully legal, they will do whatever is required to make it retroactive. Even if it takes an amendment to the constitution specifically for this purpose it will need to be done, and will be considered minor paperwork. There will be no debate about whether it needs to be done. Who would argue against it? Perhaps only those Judges who handed down harsh sentences, because THEY are the individuals who morally deserve to be punished, and THEY are the ones who would go to jail if this were a just world.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#65

Post by rayiner » Fri, Dec 30, 2016, 9:50 PM UTC

filoeleven wrote: post #41

rayiner wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference is a little less shocking when you adjust for crime rates. E.g. we have about 8-10x higher incarceration rate of Germany, but we also have more than 4x the murders per capita. (And the chicken came before the egg here. Violent crime started going up in the 1960s, but it wasn't until the late 1990s that the incarceration rate had gone up by the same proportion as the violent crime rate.) Americans aren'…

> (And the chicken came before the egg here. Violent crime started going up in the 1960s, but it wasn't until the late 1990s that the incarceration rate had gone up by the same proportion as the violent crime rate.) Did the incarceration rate for violent crime go up, or was it the total incarceration rate due to e.g. increased prosecution of drug arrests? If it's the former, then it's great that more violent criminal…

Even if we released all drug prisoners, the incarceration rate would only be about 15% lower: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/releasing-drug-offenders-.... Meanwhile, it's about 6-7 times higher than what it was in the 1960s. Thus, almost all of that growth was not from drug offenses.

It's not necessarily "great" that more violent criminals are being caught and sentenced. Many European countries manage just fine having e.g. 10-15 years maximum even for murder. Which is why I find the drug thing to be so frustrating. Drugs are not the major issue in the prison system. The real issue is whether just locking people up as a response to high crime rates actually works or not.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#66

Post by bluedino » Fri, Dec 30, 2016, 9:57 PM UTC

alpsgolden wrote: post #42

Homicide rates are the key number to track. Other crime statistics have big reporting problems. Police can easily not report a crime (especially when there is pressure to make the stats look good), people stop calling police if they think the police won't do anything, etc. But it is very hard to hide a body. And homicide rates have risen substantially in the last two years (up 10.4% in 2015, and projected for 13.1% t…

>> And homicide rates have risen substantially in the last two years

Homicides are down in the majority of cities, like NYC, Flint and Detroit. However, they are up in cities like Chicago, Baltimore, and St. Louis which are bucking the national trend of lower homicide rates.

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#67

Post by nrjdhsbsid » Fri, Dec 30, 2016, 10:16 PM UTC

sdenton4 wrote: post #53

sdenton4 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to 2014 FBI stats related in June, 2014 was a 50 year low for the us homicide rate. Two takeaways: first, FBI data hasn't been released for 2015 yet. Second, as the denominator is getting smaller, small variance leads to bigger year on year percentage shifts.

Ah, correction. FBI data is out for 2015. Murder nationwide has gone from about 13k to about 15k. The point about small denominators stands, especially in light of a 50 year low in 2014. Is this a new murderous America or a reversion toward the mean? Only you can prevent the grievous misuse of statistics.

[edit] sorry guys didn't realize this comment was horrible flamebait, deleted

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#68

Post by gns24 » Fri, Dec 30, 2016, 10:20 PM UTC

ehnto wrote: post #17

ClayFerguson wrote: post #12

If we ever decriminalize Marijuana at the Federal level, that seems to me like it would mean millions of prisoners held for offenses involving only that drug would need to be set free. In my mind it is a horrible injustice to jail people for a relatively harmless substance like THC. I think in 100 years, more evolved humans will look back on the THC incarcerations the same way we now look upon the Salem Witch trials,…

It would be interesting to see the re-incarceration rate of those set free from charges like that. I wonder if jail time has the opposite effect of rehabilitation for many, especially considering how much harder life can be with jail time on your record, or even just the black hole in your resume that you have to explain. Not to mention that you spent the last however many years being told and treated like criminal s…

I found this article on how jail in the Netherlands is focused on giving prisoners whatever they need to go back into society and not reoffend interesting. They claim that under 10% of prisoners reoffend, compared to about 50% in England and the US:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-37904263

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#69

Post by adventured » Fri, Dec 30, 2016, 10:21 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #25

eth0up wrote: post #2

This is dandy and such, but it has a long, long way to go yet, still boasting the highest incarceration rates in the world: 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_incarceration_ra... 2. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2015/07/...

The difference is a little less shocking when you adjust for crime rates. E.g. we have about 8-10x higher incarceration rate of Germany, but we also have more than 4x the murders per capita. (And the chicken came before the egg here. Violent crime started going up in the 1960s, but it wasn't until the late 1990s that the incarceration rate had gone up by the same proportion as the violent crime rate.) Americans aren'…

> The United States is fantastically violent in comparison to Europe, and always has been

Homicide != all violence. The US in fact is not fantastically more violent than Europe outside of the murder rate, which is primarily made possible by the mass distribution of guns. Europe today has twice the non-homicide crime rate that the US does. Europe's largest nation - Russia - has a homicide rate over three times that of the US.

"Contrary to common perceptions, today both property and violent crimes (with the exception of homicides) are more widespread in Europe than in the United States, while the opposite was true thirty years ago."

"In 1970 the aggregate crime rate in the seven European countries we consider was 63% of the corresponding US ﬁgure, but by 2007 it was 85% higher than in the United States."

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1889952

Re: U.S. Incarceration and Crime Rates Continue to Fall in Tandem

#70

Post by omegaworks » Fri, Dec 30, 2016, 10:32 PM UTC

nrjdhsbsid wrote: post #67

sdenton4 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, correction. FBI data is out for 2015. Murder nationwide has gone from about 13k to about 15k. The point about small denominators stands, especially in light of a 50 year low in 2014. Is this a new murderous America or a reversion toward the mean? Only you can prevent the grievous misuse of statistics.

[edit] sorry guys didn't realize this comment was horrible flamebait, deleted

You could also easily make the argument that the murder rate is up due to increased weapons sales.

It's all about the policy you want to sell. You're seeking to silence legitimate criticism. I'm seeking to reduce the likelihood someone will do something irrational with a loaded weapon.

If you're interested in facts, there's only one side supported by evidence [0] but hey, don't let that deter your campaign. Keep championing the destruction of black bodies.

0. https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/magazine/guns-and-suicide/