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The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

fortune.com

141–150 of 235 posts

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#141
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly this. North San Jose (the 237 triangle) used to have PCB, chip, chassis, component, etc., manufacturers in proximity to each other. Consider: Sun used to make and assemble their "workstations" over in the East Bay not far from the 237 triangle. As the late '90s approached much of that local manufacturing was off-shored to the Foxconns and Flextronics, etc. as well as overseas foundries.

As a consequence of all of that concentrated manufacturing, Silicon Valley is now a cluster of EPA superfund sites. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Superfund_sites_in_Cal...

Check out the SuperFund sites in the original Silicon Valleys of NJ & Boston.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/91/Superfun...

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#142
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Although I hope it is true. I don't know if being a manufacturing powerhouse is actually all that exciting anymore. There aren't really that many jobs in manufacturing anymore. Some of Toyota's modern car plants employ a meager 1500 people which is about and order of magnitude decrease from what car plants used to employ. This las election was frustrating for this very reason everybody assumes getting manufacturing…

1500 jobs + the peripheral jobs (as a another commentator pointed out) could be a boon for many of the small counties* in which these plants are located. * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Toyota_manufacturing_f...

It won't be 1500 forever. Automation hasn't stopped, or slowed, it just keeps increasing

And a lot of those peripheral jobs being talked about are also in line to be automated away.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seattle is this way. Washington state has an airplane factory in the woods and a car fiber (BMW) plant out in the desert. In the city you can find businesses to build anything.

The big question is what happens when the Chinese government puts a high priority on getting into aerospace and tries to replicate their own 787s or A-350s. That said, Boeing's defense contracts might keep is secure regardless of what happens in civil aviation. United Airlines might buy a plane from China (in a decade), but the US Navy certainly wouldn't.

China has been trying to improve their commercial air industry, but engines have been a problem, both for their airliners and their military jets.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#145

I haven't been myself but my wife is a process engineer and had to go to China to install and train people on a new machine so this is only second hand... But one of the reasons China is so good at manufacturing is because everything is in one place (or at least clusters)... need 10,000 of an Integrated Circuit? The company that makes it is literally down the street. Need some raw materials? That's down the other str…

You'd be surprised how negligible the environmental impact of shipping compared to production is. As an extreme example, it's cheaper in terms of CO2e emissions to produce and ship lamb from New Zealand to the United Kingdom than produce it in the UK.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#146
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We really need economic indicators that reflect conditions for most people, not just the top few. Indicators that are often used in the news like rising GDP, house prices and manufacturing output are pretty useless if only a few get benefits from them.

The people who make money by moving plants offshore, are also behind the design of the economic indicators, knowing that if you can control what is measured then you are in charge of the conversation, and therefore in charge of the politics. That is what American oligarchs have been doing for the past 5 decades, distorting the entire system from top to bottom so that nobody can figure out what is going on. It's the s…

You heard it here first, everyone: economic indicators are actually just a plot by the manufacturing sector.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/

Can you take a look and help me pick which of those 421,000 pieces of time-series data are the conspiracy ones so that I know not to look at them any more?

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's been a common belief for several generations, not something that was taught to one recent generation alone.

I disagree. Previous generations valued housing for its utility: it's a place to live. The land would be seen as an investment if it was used for farming. Gen-X came of age at a time where housing was viewed as an investment to make money on. The idea of buying a house with the promise of selling it later to make a profit is very modern. My great-grandparents and grandparents all owned one house and lived it in for t…

Ugh, "starter homes". Someone saying that about their most recent purchase usually tells me all I need to know about them. American over-idealism at its finest.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#148
post #145

I haven't been myself but my wife is a process engineer and had to go to China to install and train people on a new machine so this is only second hand... But one of the reasons China is so good at manufacturing is because everything is in one place (or at least clusters)... need 10,000 of an Integrated Circuit? The company that makes it is literally down the street. Need some raw materials? That's down the other str…

You'd be surprised how negligible the environmental impact of shipping compared to production is. As an extreme example, it's cheaper in terms of CO2e emissions to produce and ship lamb from New Zealand to the United Kingdom than produce it in the UK.

How is that possible?

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#149

I haven't been myself but my wife is a process engineer and had to go to China to install and train people on a new machine so this is only second hand... But one of the reasons China is so good at manufacturing is because everything is in one place (or at least clusters)... need 10,000 of an Integrated Circuit? The company that makes it is literally down the street. Need some raw materials? That's down the other str…

Silicon Valley is called that because that's how it used to be. They actually made the chips there, and if you grew up there, you could get computer parts cheaply and easily. Jobs and Wozniak could build the Apple I in a garage only because of where they were.

For off-the-shelf electronic parts in small quantities, everybody orders from Digi-Key, or maybe Mouser. Order by 8 PM Central time, delivery by 10:30 AM the next morning if you pay for FedEx.

That's what wiped out local parts stores. You never knew what they had in stock, and the markups were huge.

Also, Digi-Key doesn't have a counterfeit parts problem. Digi-Key deals directly with manufacturers. The supply chain is simple and has no anonymous resellers. If someone finds a bad part and reports it to Digi-Key, their systems can trace it back to the manufacturer lot. So not many duds get through.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#150
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but since China is the manufacturing hub for so much of the world, its local surrounding galaxy of expertise, supply chain, and related resources will exceed the size of such a galaxy built only in the US — especially if the US efforts are by dint of tariffs and related policies, and not economics.

Does that mean that nobody should attempt to compete with China?

No, I wasn't suggesting nobody compete. By all means, compete. But I don't think measures like 35% tariffs, local tax abatements, overseas profit repatriation discounts, or political bluster are likely to mash more than a little bit of the toothpaste back into this tube.
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