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The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

fortune.com

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Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#41

Post by mattnewton »

hacknat wrote: post #38
throwaway2016a wrote: post #7

I haven't been myself but my wife is a process engineer and had to go to China to install and train people on a new machine so this is only second hand... But one of the reasons China is so good at manufacturing is because everything is in one place (or at least clusters)... need 10,000 of an Integrated Circuit? The company that makes it is literally down the street. Need some raw materials? That's down the other str…

> Although I hope it is true. I don't know if being a manufacturing powerhouse is actually all that exciting anymore. There aren't really that many jobs in manufacturing anymore. Some of Toyota's modern car plants employ a meager 1500 people which is about and order of magnitude decrease from what car plants used to employ. This las election was frustrating for this very reason everybody assumes getting manufacturing…

Or worth the cost increase of higher automation.. I don't see people living off of what it costs to manufacture goods today. I don't think those particular jobs are coming back.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#42

Post by organsnyder »

icefox wrote: post #10
throwaway2016a wrote: post #7

I haven't been myself but my wife is a process engineer and had to go to China to install and train people on a new machine so this is only second hand... But one of the reasons China is so good at manufacturing is because everything is in one place (or at least clusters)... need 10,000 of an Integrated Circuit? The company that makes it is literally down the street. Need some raw materials? That's down the other str…

Don't know about these days, but Michigan/Ohio area with car parts comes to mind.

Still a lot of truth to this. Here in West Michigan, there are tons of auto parts manufacturers, both "boring" manufacturing (plastic molding, etc.) and emerging tech.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#43

Post by dragonwriter »

wil421 wrote: post #25
maxerickson wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We should also start treating rising housing prices as a policy failure.

What about inflation? Why would anyone buy land if it was guaranteed to depreciate. I'd be better off renting from someone else losing money.

> I'd be better off renting from someone else losing money.

No, you wouldn't, because if the rental market wouldn't support recovering the full costs to the owner, no one would bother owning land and renting it. Whatever costs fall on land owners will, inevitably, be fully (and then some, usually) distributed to renters of the land.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#44

Post by maxerickson »

dragonwriter wrote: post #40
maxerickson wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We should also start treating rising housing prices as a policy failure.

since it's usually a policy goal supported by the voting public, I don't see how it's a policy failure. Now, the fact that it is a policy goal with that kind of support may be a failure on a more fundamental level, but that's a different issue.

What I wrote is perfectly compatible with your pedantry.

"We should also start"...

Obviously I didn't go on and on about it, but it is implied there that attitudes would need to change.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#46

Post by dragonwriter »

bandrami wrote: post #13
maxerickson wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We should also start treating rising housing prices as a policy failure.

Unfortunately we taught a generation that housing was an investment platform rather than something you primarily get utility out of.

That's been a common belief for several generations, not something that was taught to one recent generation alone.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#47

Post by carsongross »

mercurysmessage wrote: post #35
carsongross wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China wasn't always that way: it was a choice they made to become the worlds manufacturers, with the complicity of the global financial elite. We moved the factories over there, we can move them back.

To be automated, which is what will, and is happening.

I'm perfectly happy with that, although I think it is oversold and used as an excuse in many cases. So long as the productive capacity, intellectual property and knock on effects are kept domestic, good.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#48

Post by reallydontask »

bandrami wrote: post #14
ageofwant wrote: post #6

Jobs that are vulnerable to automation are generally not worth keeping. That's no comfort to those loosing them though. Science fiction from the 60's painted a world where people would lounge around in their airships hopping between beaches, and mountains and parties while robots took care of everything and the lord scientists and engineers that gifted the wold with such plenty smiled benevolently down on the citizen…

Did it not happen? Even poor people today have objectively much better living standards than rich people 100 years ago.

Please explain what you mean by: poor people today, rich people 100 years ago, living standards.

hard to argue with your statement, one way or another, if those aren't clearly defined.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#49

Post by bandrami »

losteric wrote: post #19
bandrami wrote: post #12

I'm pretty sure our manufacturing output exceeded China's for most of the oughts, also. The myth that "we don't make things here anymore" is, well, a myth. We just don't employ people to make things anymore.

It's a well founded myth based on an extremely high percentage of consumer goods produced overseas. I can't find hard data on this, but anecdotally it's very hard to find things made in the US unless it's a high end store. Chinese manufacturing filled the burst in consumer demand for budget-level products...

True, but that's a relatively small part of the economy to begin with. We make most of the heavy plant in the world, so we're essentially building the factories China uses to make the plastic crap we buy.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#50

Post by ams6110 »

maxerickson wrote: post #31
wil421 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about inflation? Why would anyone buy land if it was guaranteed to depreciate. I'd be better off renting from someone else losing money.

Lots of people buy vehicles that depreciate like mad because they believe the total value of the purchase exceeds the total cost. I'm not necessarily saying that prices should have significant downward trajectory. Of course desirable locations will command a premium over time and so on. But as a society we probably shouldn't be excited that housing sometimes goes up substantially, even as the stock deteriorates.

Vehicles are a consumable, not an investment. Land is generally not, because most uses increase its value.
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