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The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

fortune.com

111–120 of 235 posts

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China wasn't always that way: it was a choice they made to become the worlds manufacturers, with the complicity of the global financial elite. We moved the factories over there, we can move them back.

Why? After all the American people want cheaper things and that is done by moving factories to China.

For a lot of things, I'm not sure it saves people enough money to notice. Production isn't the entire price of a product - you also have things like transportation, retail markup, R&D, advertising, etc.

Let's say that there's a $3.50 product that costs $1.50 to produce, and a company can save 10% of production costs by producing it in China (even with lower wages you don't tend to have huge savings when things like transportation, lower quality, distance from quality inspectors, etc. are added in). So that's a 15 cents saving - now some of that the company is going to keep (let's say 5 cents), some will go to the businesses buying wholesale (let's say another 5 cents), and some will go to the consumer (let's say the remaining 5 cents). So in the end it might be the difference between paying $3.45 and $3.50 for the consumer - something most people wouldn't notice.

Of course, for a company it's a much bigger difference - if everything costs them $2.25, and they're selling it for $2.75, then an extra 5 cents per unit means their profit margins go up 10%.

Of course this is going to vary a great deal depending on a number of factors (what kind of product, if you're buying generic, etc.). But I think for a lot of products the average American wouldn't notice much of a price difference if they were being made in the U.S.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to have read a "No, we shouldn't, because..." into my post that wasn't there. My point was directly that it is, in fact, not a policy failure in the usual sense since it is working both as policy makers and voters intend, and, on a deeper level, that --given that people who, in fact, benefit from housing price appreciation are overrepresented among those who actually vote -- changing this is likely to requir…

I simply didn't state that it is a policy failure. I said We should also start treating rising housing prices as a policy failure. It's a prescription for what society should do, not an assessment of whether current policy aligns with voter wishes. In the comment I replied to initially, rising prices are treated as a measure of economic success. Treating them as a policy failure would contrast with that current attit…

Yes, and, as I said in GP, I'm not arguing against your point, I'm pointing out the practical difficulty in realizing the goal you have set out.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#113

I haven't been myself but my wife is a process engineer and had to go to China to install and train people on a new machine so this is only second hand... But one of the reasons China is so good at manufacturing is because everything is in one place (or at least clusters)... need 10,000 of an Integrated Circuit? The company that makes it is literally down the street. Need some raw materials? That's down the other str…

Silicon Valley is called that because that's how it used to be. They actually made the chips there, and if you grew up there, you could get computer parts cheaply and easily. Jobs and Wozniak could build the Apple I in a garage only because of where they were.

Exactly this. North San Jose (the 237 triangle) used to have PCB, chip, chassis, component, etc., manufacturers in proximity to each other. Consider: Sun used to make and assemble their "workstations" over in the East Bay not far from the 237 triangle. As the late '90s approached much of that local manufacturing was off-shored to the Foxconns and Flextronics, etc. as well as overseas foundries.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#114
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Silicon Valley is called that because that's how it used to be. They actually made the chips there, and if you grew up there, you could get computer parts cheaply and easily. Jobs and Wozniak could build the Apple I in a garage only because of where they were.

Exactly this. North San Jose (the 237 triangle) used to have PCB, chip, chassis, component, etc., manufacturers in proximity to each other. Consider: Sun used to make and assemble their "workstations" over in the East Bay not far from the 237 triangle. As the late '90s approached much of that local manufacturing was off-shored to the Foxconns and Flextronics, etc. as well as overseas foundries.

As a consequence of all of that concentrated manufacturing, Silicon Valley is now a cluster of EPA superfund sites. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Superfund_sites_in_Cal...

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#115

I haven't been myself but my wife is a process engineer and had to go to China to install and train people on a new machine so this is only second hand... But one of the reasons China is so good at manufacturing is because everything is in one place (or at least clusters)... need 10,000 of an Integrated Circuit? The company that makes it is literally down the street. Need some raw materials? That's down the other str…

Wired just released a great docu on hardware in China. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGJ5cZnoodY

Doing electronics here in the states is a pain in the ass. Maybe a little less so in some parts of CA, but for the rest of us it sucks. Pretty much everything has to be shipped to get anything done. You spend more days waiting on UPS then actually moving forward. Unless of course you can foot same day / next day shipping all the time.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#116
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't know about these days, but Michigan/Ohio area with car parts comes to mind.

Still a lot of truth to this. Here in West Michigan, there are tons of auto parts manufacturers, both "boring" manufacturing (plastic molding, etc.) and emerging tech.

Preserving this cluster was the reason for the auto bailout, correct?

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately we taught a generation that housing was an investment platform rather than something you primarily get utility out of.

That's been a common belief for several generations, not something that was taught to one recent generation alone.

I disagree. Previous generations valued housing for its utility: it's a place to live. The land would be seen as an investment if it was used for farming. Gen-X came of age at a time where housing was viewed as an investment to make money on.

The idea of buying a house with the promise of selling it later to make a profit is very modern. My great-grandparents and grandparents all owned one house and lived it in for the majority/entirety of their lives, so the value of he house was inconsequential to them.

My parents and their siblings have mostly owned multiple houses. They never moved for pragmatic reasons, like relocating for a job. Instead, they took to the modern notion of "starter homes", where a family continues to move up to a better house by "using the profits" from the sale of their previous home.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's been a common belief for several generations, not something that was taught to one recent generation alone.

I disagree. Previous generations valued housing for its utility: it's a place to live. The land would be seen as an investment if it was used for farming. Gen-X came of age at a time where housing was viewed as an investment to make money on. The idea of buying a house with the promise of selling it later to make a profit is very modern. My great-grandparents and grandparents all owned one house and lived it in for t…

> Gen-X came of age at a time where housing was viewed as an investment to make money on.

Yes, because the idea was established when the leading edge of the Boomer generation was young adults and became dominant fairly quickly.

So, it's been a common belief for three generations that have reached adulthold. Hence, my statement in GP.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#119

Upon what data and assumptions is this prediction based? How will this help Joe Six-pack?

> Upon what data and assumptions is this prediction based?

None. It's based on a survey of CEOs sponsored by a nonprofit thinktank made up entirely of CEOs. This article is a barely rewritten press release, and the content of the survey is worthless.

> How will this help Joe Six-pack?

Its purpose was to advocate for Clinton and anyone-but-Trump. I suppose that it told Joe Six-pack who America's CEOs wanted him to vote for?

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#120
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the big perks to manufacturing is that it draws the entire supply chain around it naturally. Even if the manufacturing job itself isn't as abundant, the peripheral jobs that comes with it from shipping materials, producing materials, distribution, sales agreements, logistics, building construction and maintenance...they all provide benefits. With the manufacturing hub overseas all of that's overseas too, which…

Yes, but since China is the manufacturing hub for so much of the world, its local surrounding galaxy of expertise, supply chain, and related resources will exceed the size of such a galaxy built only in the US — especially if the US efforts are by dint of tariffs and related policies, and not economics.

Does that mean that nobody should attempt to compete with China?
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