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Facebook is Dying

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Re: Facebook is Dying

#61

Post by _delirium »

UnknownSource wrote: post #58
Aetius wrote: post #57

Facebook launched in 04 and grew quickly. Then as now, people were saying it was dead, that Twitter would overtake it, that they would run out of money, that they would be the next Friendster, MySpace, AOL. It hasn't happened. They're closing in on 500 million (yes half a billion people use it!), and still there are nonbelievers. My not so witty prediction is Facebook will IPO and probably fetch a 200 billion valuati…

I totally agree. Let's face it, we all hate facebook, but there are no good alternatives yet. Orkut and networks like friendstar are hopeless still, and whilst I'd love to remove myself from facebook, the reality is that most invitations people receive to do things are by facebook these days. I can hardly wait for better alternatives though.

I guess I use it differently, because for my uses, Facebook and Twitter are almost equal contenders currently. Nobody in my social group ever uses Facebook invites, so the main thing is the status updates and replies. Facebook has somewhat of an advantage over Twitter on that still due to: 1. more generous length limits; and 2. a series of replies to a status going into a thread instead of the main flat status-update namespace; and 3. "likes" are a useful way of acknowledging a status without actually replying. Twitter's main advantage is that it feels less spammy and has nice 3rd-party clients; I'm always playing whack-a-mole with hiding Zynga games and Quizzes from my FB feed.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#62

Post by mrvir »

gsk wrote: post #54
mrvir wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facebook will die, but your profile data will live forever in some company's database.

Yes, that will probably be the case. But note that the usefulness of said data diminishes as time goes by. Eventually your data dies too.

No, I think it will be great fun for your grandchildren to learn about your online obsessions.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#63

Post by tyler »

pyre wrote: post #40
faramarz wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thats not desperate, that's a great retention technique! Every startup can learn from this. If you don't have a practice to retain your users, you don't care about the success of your business.

That's a retention technique in the same way that, "Don't break up with me! I Love You!" is a relationship reparation technique.

Not that I'd actually recommend doing it, but I'd bet that technique does work some small percentage of the time. What does Facebook have to lose by seeming desperate at that stage? I think it's smart.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#65

Post by jacquesm »

revorad wrote: post #53
fnid2 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's much easier to predict what will happen than it is to predict when. For example, I can make the following predictions: Facebook will collapse India and China will erupt into violent war We will experience a water crisis Oil will run out (that one is actually easier, about 3 decades) Iran will be invaded These are all fairly obvious predictions. Sometimes math can be used to zero in on dates, but for most of us a…

Care to put some details on the India-China war prediction?

I'm not so sure about that one either (though I can see why the GP might think there would be, given the fact that they are in relative proximity and both in ascendancy), but those alone are not reason enough.

I'd hate to lay odds on a Pakistan - Indian nuclear exchange though, or the next time a nuclear weapon is used against a city, too many unstable characters are already in possession of nukes or will probably get them within the next 30 years or so.

Seoul? Islamabad? Teheran? Bombay? Cairo?

The mind reels when you think about the consequences of a nuclear exchange in those regions.

I've always been very much shocked at the ease with which the US decided to try its nuclear weapons on populated areas, the 'we saved lives, the war ended sooner' argument doesn't hold water in the context in which it is usually given.

But in the longer term, it may have helped to stave off use by a whole raft of nations after world war II, given that the horrors of the aftermath were known before more powerful devices were built.

History is fickle that way, we only get to see one of all the possible future threads.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#66

Post by ekanes »

jacquesm wrote: post #8

We're all dying, but that doesn't mean we'll be dying tomorrow. Titles like that should come with a qualifying end-date. Otherwise it's just about some undefined point in the future. If facebook is dying I'd like to see some proof. I'm very much of the opinion that facebook is transient, but I'd be very careful to stick an end-date on it smaller than at least 5 years in to the future, and a lot can happen in 5 years.…

Exactly. Just like Microsoft (or Internet Explorer, or Excel, etc) is "dying". With enough momentum, things can coast downhill for a long time.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#68

Post by j_baker »

ekanes wrote: post #66
jacquesm wrote: post #8

We're all dying, but that doesn't mean we'll be dying tomorrow. Titles like that should come with a qualifying end-date. Otherwise it's just about some undefined point in the future. If facebook is dying I'd like to see some proof. I'm very much of the opinion that facebook is transient, but I'd be very careful to stick an end-date on it smaller than at least 5 years in to the future, and a lot can happen in 5 years.…

Exactly. Just like Microsoft (or Internet Explorer, or Excel, etc) is "dying". With enough momentum, things can coast downhill for a long time.

Or coast into their own little niche. IBM has gotten to be a pro at this.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#69

Post by RyanMcGreal »

fnid2 wrote: post #22
jacquesm wrote: post #8

We're all dying, but that doesn't mean we'll be dying tomorrow. Titles like that should come with a qualifying end-date. Otherwise it's just about some undefined point in the future. If facebook is dying I'd like to see some proof. I'm very much of the opinion that facebook is transient, but I'd be very careful to stick an end-date on it smaller than at least 5 years in to the future, and a lot can happen in 5 years.…

It's much easier to predict what will happen than it is to predict when. For example, I can make the following predictions: Facebook will collapse India and China will erupt into violent war We will experience a water crisis Oil will run out (that one is actually easier, about 3 decades) Iran will be invaded These are all fairly obvious predictions. Sometimes math can be used to zero in on dates, but for most of us a…

I admire your bold prediction, and I hope we come back a year or two later to see how well your timeline bears out.

Just one quibble:

>Oil will run out (that one is actually easier, about 3 decades)

That would be roughly correct at current rates of extraction, but:

* The oil production rate is going to start declining by 2-3 percent a year some time in the next several years (we've been plateaued at 85 mbpd since around 2005).

* Eventually the energy return on energy invested (EROEI) for oil will hit 1:1, at which point it will no longer be useful as a source of energy - though it might still be useful as a material input.

So strictly speaking, oil will never run out; rather, it will gradually cease to be an important part of the economy.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#70

Post by RyanMcGreal »

j_baker wrote: post #67

Why does everyone seem to hate facebook here? I'm trying to think of the last positive story I've seen about them.

Geeks hate Facebook in large part because we tend to pay more attention to things like privacy and control over personal data than the typical user.
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