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The hunt for dollars to build the $64B bullet train

latimes.com

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Re: The hunt for dollars to build the $64B bullet train

#81

Post by trome »

vilhelm_s wrote: post #75
kalleboo wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What also happens in Japan is that the train company owns that land, the mall, and maybe a couple apartment buildings nearby, so that they have an interest both in people riding the train and shopping at the mall (so e.g. the train company has an incentive to keep fares low enough to keep shoppers coming). A significant portion of Japanese train companies' income comes from retail real estate.

According to this blog post[0] the same used to be true in the U.S.---light rail was payed for by property developers. Interestingly, he says this eventually led to the collapse of the Los Angeles street car system, because it was financed by the the increase in land value, and once the development was complete there was no longer a cash stream to pay for operating costs. [0] http://kontextmaschine.tumblr.com/post/14…

Yeah, in China they lease the land out to the developments, so there is a constant revenue stream. That is illegal to do in nearly any other country though, the US included.

Re: The hunt for dollars to build the $64B bullet train

#82

Post by sambe »

55555 wrote: post #30
hourislate wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe it's best that this doesn't happen because it will just turn into a boondoggle and the tax payers will be on the hook for it. It would make sense hiring a European or Asian country to come in and build it for us with 1/5 of the resources and in 1/3 the time. If a country like Switzerland can dig through solid granite for 35 miles under a mountain (Gotthard Base Tunnel) someone out there other than a US company…

I wouldnt want China or India to build it for us, but I would offer Japan, Germany, or Switzerland a premium.

Why?

Re: The hunt for dollars to build the $64B bullet train

#83

Post by trome »

DrScump wrote: post #54
Sanddancer wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the problems is that the corridor in question is underserved in passenger rail right now. The only way to get between the two cities right now involves taking a train and a bus or two, because the rail company that owns the trackage between LA and Bakersfield doesn't want passenger trains running on it, and the rail company that owns the track between Ventura and San Jose would love to see passenger trains on…

doesn't want passenger trains running on it I think "can prioritize freight over passenger rail when schedules conflict" is a fairer description.

Freight is easy, a few hour delay while you repair some trackage, move another 100 car train, etc. is far from the end of the world. Comparatively, getting BNSF or UP to switch gears and be timely for passenger rail service is very expensive, esp. since they do not have an internal culture that supports that.

Re: The hunt for dollars to build the $64B bullet train

#84

Post by trome »

DrScump wrote: post #53
Frondo wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They did that in Portland (I used to live there). They built the MAX line out to the airport, and put an Ikea and an outdoor shopping center there, and it was frickin awesome. People would even haul stuff from Ikea on the MAX! Everywhere they built the MAX line, shops and commerce would spring up around it. Of course, there's still a small, incredibly vocal contingent who opposes public transit no matter what. Happil…

There are other opinions: http://skytrainforsurrey.org/2012/05/28/portland-or-lrt-is-c... They quote an operational farebox recovery rate of less than 28%, so taxpayers are subsidizing almost 3/4 of the operational cost plus all of the fixed costs and construction. (As disappointing as that it, it's still over 8 times better than VTA in the San Jose area!)

How is the farebox recovery rate on roadways in Oregon State? Wait, I forgot, those operate as a massive money bleed.

In regards to headways, unless you are fully grade separated you can only go so tight with scheduling (fuckin' cars man, fuckin' up my mass transit!), also the number you cited appears to be made up, please cite sources.

Re: The hunt for dollars to build the $64B bullet train

#85

Post by trome »

akiselev wrote: post #60
Frondo wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In 2015, TriMet's farebox recovery ratio was 39.1%. Funnily enough, that blog post seems to have made up the numbers out of thin air. They quote a 2011 FRR of 27.8%, while TriMet's published numbers are 35.9%. Regardless, it's a public good. I simply wouldn't expect public transportation to make money, just like I wouldn't expect the court system or the DMV to make money. These things exist to benefit the city or sta…

Another factor to consider is the self fulfilling prophecy. Fiscal conservatives who are opposed to subsidizing public transportation throw up obstacle after obstacle, which drives up the cost and all but guarantees that the system will need to be subsidized, especially with underground mass transit. A single injunction stopping work for a few weeks while a judge reviews the case can cost an insane amount because you…

Needless to say when it comes to roads they're opposed to tolling, and aren't willing to staunch the bleeding when it comes to maintenance or roadway construction.

Re: The hunt for dollars to build the $64B bullet train

#86

Post by trome »

hristov wrote: post #11
baron816 wrote: post #3

I love public transit, but there is no doubt that this is in fact a boondoggle that shouldn't be built. That money should be used to expand commuter rail in LA and SF, or better yet, implementing BRT. When we have driverless cars on the horizon, and the possibility that the hyperloop could work out, sinking what will likely turn out to be $100 billion into yesterday's technology makes absolutely no sense.

Hyperloop, if it ever gets built, will be at least 10 times more expensive than this. Building a 500 mile vacuum tube is not easy. The hyperloop hype is very unfortunate because it will prevent us from having a proper functioning train in the hope of some pie in the sky project that will probably not happen with the present technology.

Worse yet, Hyperloop would move 1/20th the passengers, to the tune of only 1000 people an hour. Hyperloop is horribly inefficent, and has worse right of way needs & engineering costs compared to High Speed Rail, not to mention the lack of existing talent to build it.

Re: The hunt for dollars to build the $64B bullet train

#87

Post by trome »

labrador wrote: post #76
kalleboo wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One problem with domestic air travel in the U.S. in particular is all the dead time in getting to the airport, security, boarding. In comparison, here in Japan you can show up at the airport 20 minutes before your departure time with no problems. If you didn't book a ticket in advance, make it 30 minutes to get a ticket from a vending machine. It really is an air-BUS. The question is what kind of security theater wil…

I'm afraid the same kind of security theater would apply to a high speed train, though the chances of it being driven into a building are low, it still would be a choice target. I would take a few billion out of that 64B price tag and improve air travel security to make the checkin process take less time and be less intrusive.

Uhh, you can't take a train very far off its tracks, unlike a car, truck or plane.

Re: The hunt for dollars to build the $64B bullet train

#88

Post by yummyfajitas »

trome wrote: post #80
yummyfajitas wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So let's import Chinese and Indians and have them build it. If American labor can't get the job done, let's not use it. The goal is getting train service rather than funneling money to unions, right?

We actually did this with the Chinese and Irish immigrants [1], and some rail lines would kill off workers to avoid paying them once a rail line was complete. That being said, American labor isn't the issue, Chinese already cost $4/hr and importing them costs quite a bit, whereas the labor market stateside is pretty soft in that segment. It likely would not make sense unless your good with mass executions to cut cost…

China and India do not currently execute their train construction crews, so I don't see why we would need to.

If we can hire American labor for cheap (i.e. less than Davis Bacon wages) let's do that - but then don't use labor costs as an excuse why CA rail costs > 10x what Chinese rail does.

Re: The hunt for dollars to build the $64B bullet train

#89

Post by kalleboo »

labrador wrote: post #76
kalleboo wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One problem with domestic air travel in the U.S. in particular is all the dead time in getting to the airport, security, boarding. In comparison, here in Japan you can show up at the airport 20 minutes before your departure time with no problems. If you didn't book a ticket in advance, make it 30 minutes to get a ticket from a vending machine. It really is an air-BUS. The question is what kind of security theater wil…

I'm afraid the same kind of security theater would apply to a high speed train, though the chances of it being driven into a building are low, it still would be a choice target. I would take a few billion out of that 64B price tag and improve air travel security to make the checkin process take less time and be less intrusive.

> improve air travel security to make the checkin process take less time and be less intrusive

Air travel security in the US isn't meant to be good, it's meant to be visible

Re: The hunt for dollars to build the $64B bullet train

#90

Post by Shivetya »

maxxxxx wrote: post #45
rjeli wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am reminded of Thiel's op ed in the Wapo[0]: "Our government used to get things done [..] Our newest fighter jet has already been under development for more than 15 years and it costs more than 15 times as much as the Manhattan Project (adjusted for inflation), but last year it lost a dogfight to a plane from the 1970s [..] Instead of spending a fortune, Trump won the primaries by saying things that made sense to v…

That's the problem. There has been so much propaganda about the impossibility of government to do anything right that people don't even try to run an efficient government. But they also don't try to shrink it so money just gets wasted. This happens with healthcare, defense and infrastructure. I think this may get even worse with Trump. During Bush's the Republicans just cut taxes while spending a lot of money on war…

It is simple really, it has gotten to large to work. Worse, far too much of it is not accountable to anyone. Look at the VA, how can this have gone on for so long and how is it even going on now?
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