The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation • Hacker News Board

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#101

Post by grp » Thu, Dec 22, 2016, 9:13 AM UTC

cm2187 wrote: post #95

terryf wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> tell me which people you know, in which industries, have outright 'lost their jobs' due to some AI or machine? I have literally seen a room full of people that lost their jobs because of software I wrote (admittedly, not alone, but still). The software was almost ready by that point and it was quite a disturbing experience that still bothers me up to this day to be honest. It had nothing to do with AI and was quite…

Losing their job is a violent and unpleasant process but a sort of necessary one as a society. I have seen that first hand many times. It forces people to reconsider their career, move to another more promising industry, move to another city or another country. That's how the economy adapts to change and resources are allocated efficiently. What I have seen often too is bankers wealthy enough to be able to live on th…

We have to feel bad because they lost their main (and I think only) source of income, not because they lost their jobs.

Nobody has to be forced to reconsider his career (so his entire life..) when we just have to cut the link between work and salary that we learn at school.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#102

Post by ti32x » Thu, Dec 22, 2016, 9:14 AM UTC

alkonaut wrote: post #98

I'm not sure what everyone is so afraid of? There will be tensions and a political problem about redistribution if "simple" jobs dry up, sure, but isn't automation a good thing regardless? It means we make more stuff withuot putting in more effort. Automation and industrialization over the last 150 years already meant we went from 120h weeks on farms to 40h weeks in offices and factories, while living standards incre…

This is a very idealistic view that I don't believe is based in reality.

While we still measure a person's worth out of how much they make, this is going to pose an enormous problem for all of us. We can't just take away people's livelihoods for the benefit of a few (us, to be honest).

There will be a violent reaction, as there has been every time this situation has arisen throughout history.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#103

Post by shams93 » Thu, Dec 22, 2016, 9:18 AM UTC

torpfactory wrote: post #12

I think we are destined for a future of political and social instability in the world if we continue to define labor and its compensation as we do now. We currently don't have a social understanding for navigating a world where little human labor is required. The resentment of the winners (capital owners) by the losers (jobless masses) may lead to great upheaval, to be harnessed by willing politicians of short-sighte…

We need to have an AI tax that redistributes wealth back to the "ordinaries" so they can have the resources to be creative. Even if machines can generate writing and music there's no real point of view to fully machine generated material. You can do the thing they said don't quit your day job to do.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#104

Post by klodolph » Thu, Dec 22, 2016, 9:19 AM UTC

smallnamespace wrote: post #72

visarga wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Economies of scale have been the bread and butter of progress in the last 100 years, but we're entering the age of customization now. Adaptive technologies can work on small scale as well as on large scale. And large scale can still be achieved by coops that provide services for many people at once. People do have capital and resources, it's just spread and divided. What we need is to organize. I give self-replicatin…

Even if everyone has their own replicator, the competition shifts to who controls raw materials, and who controls energy. Fresh water, for example, is a scarce (and becoming scarcer) resource, and it's impossible to farm or live without it.

Yes, although I'm not convinced that fresh water is going to be such a scarce resource in the future. There are a few "outs" on the horizon—besides changing our diet, the possibilities for desalinization, or things like lab-grown meats, may change our relationship with water. Just as long as population growth slows enough…

Agree with the comment about ownership. As technology has improved, more and more power has been going to whoever owns the capital.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#105

Post by coldtea » Thu, Dec 22, 2016, 9:26 AM UTC

ab5tract wrote: post #99

clock_tower wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you familiar with potlatch society in the old Pacific Northwest? With wealth readily available, the "big men" of a tribe (roughly chiefs, but not hereditary) competed to see how much they could give away to their neighbors and rivals; all you had to do to eat well, or make it through a bad winter, was to admit that your neighbors were led by a great and glorious chief. This system didn't work very well at the tim…

Interesting that your example of warlordism in a "potlach-like" culture is from a feudal society. The rest you've said is a gross misrepresentation of the giveaway culture shared amongst many more tribes than just the Northwest ones. And of course, white academia will just refuse and say "our written documentation written by genocidal outsiders is way more accurate than what the cultures themselves say about themselv…

It obviously means no negative effects for the colonizers.

Which, come to think of it, it's true.

Except some guilt maybe.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#106

Post by grp » Thu, Dec 22, 2016, 9:35 AM UTC

edblarney wrote: post #83

whybroke wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The period you describe was marked by revolutions, civil wars and world wars not stabilized until after WWII. Things did indeed come out well eventually but that better world most definitely did not emerge serenely and rationally. It took the utter annihilation of the pre-WWI world order through decades of enormous violence. Indeed, the egalitarian socialist plan and the response of populist fascist to crush it emerg…

"The period you describe was marked by revolutions, civil wars and world wars not stabilized until after WWII." No - the late 19th century was relatively peaceful. "But unfortunately we are just at the beginning" Just at the beggining of the longest period of peace and economic prosperity in history. Donald Trump, Brexit - this kind of 'nationalism' and 'demagoguery' is not even remotely in the league of anything in…

In the late 19th, there was nearly the same conflicts areas as today, some european wars and massive colonization:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_1800%E2%80%9399

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#107

Post by whybroke » Thu, Dec 22, 2016, 9:38 AM UTC

edblarney wrote: post #83

whybroke wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The period you describe was marked by revolutions, civil wars and world wars not stabilized until after WWII. Things did indeed come out well eventually but that better world most definitely did not emerge serenely and rationally. It took the utter annihilation of the pre-WWI world order through decades of enormous violence. Indeed, the egalitarian socialist plan and the response of populist fascist to crush it emerg…

"The period you describe was marked by revolutions, civil wars and world wars not stabilized until after WWII." No - the late 19th century was relatively peaceful. "But unfortunately we are just at the beginning" Just at the beggining of the longest period of peace and economic prosperity in history. Donald Trump, Brexit - this kind of 'nationalism' and 'demagoguery' is not even remotely in the league of anything in…

In the 1800s after even after Napoleon there were sporadic uprisings scattered through Europe and around the world, especially in the 1830s and 40s. The Franco-Prussina war was a prelude to WWI. Brits fought Russians, Turks fought Russians, Spain had multiple civil wars, Germans fought each other constantly. Even the US had a civil war. And the seeds for 1914's WWI did not suddenly appear in the 14 years of the 20th century before it.

>...is not even remotely in the league of anything in the past. Not even close...

I wish this were the case. And while Brexit is only one referendum, possibly recoverable, the Front National, AfD, PVV and Trump use rhetoric that is completely indistinguishable for Eastern and Southern European fascism of the 1920s. Some of it is verbatim quotes translated. And the economic policies of these parties will only worsen the economic well being of the electorate angering them further.

We can keep making optimistic guesses about the next score years but there is also more realistic outcome:

We do not in fact live in a magic time at the end of history. The post WWII (relative) peace is not remotely an inevitable state of affairs. It is an incredibly delicate thing maintained by moderate democratic global nurturing. Inept leaders set on dissolving alliances and treaties combined with aggressive rhetoric and random hostilities executed solely to excite a demagogue's support base could break that peace in any of a dozen powder kegs world wide faster than the bullet that killed prince Ferdinand. Indeed, if NATO weakens enough, as many on the far-right wish, and Putin starts loosing popularity, god help the Baltic states.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#108

Post by 2sk21 » Thu, Dec 22, 2016, 9:40 AM UTC

Its not just automation. There have been many more applications of optimization to reducing operating margins. At my company, there was, for example, a project aimed at identifying the optimal service intervals for heavy mining equipment. As a result of this work, it was possible to substantially reduce the amount of preventative maintenance that was being done on the machinery. It was found that not all of the preventive maintenance was cost effective.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#109

Post by adrianN » Thu, Dec 22, 2016, 9:42 AM UTC

api wrote: post #43

xbmcuser wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The global market was still expanding so all efficiency gains from industrial revolution and the internet revolution were absorbed. Where as today the global economy is stagnating. The efficiency gains in the next decade are expected to be a few times the rate of market growth which would put many people out of work making the global market contract further. This cycle could accelerate very quickly. reply

This is the real problem. While it may be good ecologically for population growth to slow and then reverse, it will lead to what I've long called "planet Japan."

Life in Japan is pretty nice though. You don't need economic growth if the population isn't growing.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#110

Post by acd10j » Thu, Dec 22, 2016, 9:45 AM UTC

edblarney wrote: post #21

torpfactory wrote: post #12

I think we are destined for a future of political and social instability in the world if we continue to define labor and its compensation as we do now. We currently don't have a social understanding for navigating a world where little human labor is required. The resentment of the winners (capital owners) by the losers (jobless masses) may lead to great upheaval, to be harnessed by willing politicians of short-sighte…

"We currently don't have a social understanding for navigating a world where little human labor is required" Yes we do. The industrial revolution had far greater impact on labour than any of this mysterious AI will ever have. The first 'machines' powered by coal etc. instantly 'unemployed' hundreds of people per unit. Go ahead and look at the productivity/capita charts for the early 19th century - UK citizens were mu…

One of the side effects of Industrial revolution was acceleration of colonialism. So job tremendous job loss may and subsequent suffering was not felt directly by western nations but instead outsourced to colonies. May be version 2.0 of colonialism might emerge to cushion Job loss from first mover nation.