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The Chevy Bolt Is the Ugly Car of the Near Future

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Re: The Chevy Bolt Is the Ugly Car of the Near Future

#131

"Tesla loses money on every car too." This is false, Tesla averages $18,000 margin on every model S & model X it sells. "So how did GM pull off a $30,000 car with 200 miles of range?" It didn't. It is $30k only after $8000 of federal tax credits.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong. It seems like the battery packs on cars are engineered to manipulate people, and this would be an easy way of making two very different cars seem the same. Lithium batteries degrade. With heat, with time, with charge cycles. Article after article writes about how Tesla's battery packs barely degrade! 8% capacity loss over 100,000 miles. This has to be a lie. Unless they've come…

> Lithium batteries degrade. 15-20% capacity loss per year. 2-5% per hundred cycles.

This is a gross overgeneralization. There are many different lithium-based battery chemistries available, with wildly differing lifespans.

The voltage at which you stop charging also makes a huge difference in lifespan. Charge a li-ion battery 10% less full and it can make an order of magnitude difference in its lifespan. When you charge a li-ion battery to full, it's not really truly "full"; the charging system just stops you from charging any further past a certain point, in order to stop you from degrading the battery too much. It's up to the device manufacturer to decide exactly when the battery is "full", based on what kind of tradeoffs they're willing to make on capacity vs lifespan.

High temperatures can also really increase the degradation rate for li-ion batteries, and Tesla employs a sophisticated cooling system to prevent the batteries from getting too hot while they're charging or discharging. The original Nissan LEAF had no active cooling, and their batteries degraded quite quickly, especially in hot climates. This was partially addressed in later model years, but it's now clear that this makes a huge difference.

Like most people, you're probably used to seeing heavy degradation over time in your cell phone or laptop battery. Just bear in mind that it's much easier for companies like Apple or Samsung to advertise "our phone gets 20% longer battery life!" than "our battery capacity degrades 5% less per year than our competitor!" Add to the fact that many people replace their cell phone every few years anyway, and the incentives are clearly aligned to keep pushing higher charge voltages, leading to greater short-term capacity at the expense of longevity. It's also a hell of a lot harder to fit a good battery cooling system in a smartphone than a car.

Re: The Chevy Bolt Is the Ugly Car of the Near Future

#132
post #38

Why are diesel cars hated in the US? You can get a range of diesel car sin Europe which give you 50-60mpg, have all kinds of comforts and can be cheap, without the trickery of tax credits.

I have a Jetta TDI.

Never again.

Apart from the lies about emissions...

Diesel is great for highway driving, and has good torque at certain RPMs. But it's shitty for stop-and-go driving. The fuel economy is only good when you're doing steady highway speeds.

I also have a 30 horsepower utility tractor for my hobby farm. It belches nice clouds of black smoke when I start it and lifts hundreds of pounds. I like diesel in that machine, but not in my car.

Re: The Chevy Bolt Is the Ugly Car of the Near Future

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keep in mind you wouldn't regularly fully discharge a car battery pack, however you would discharge a phone battery. Thus capacity reduction occurs at a slower rate than a laptop or phone.

Why don't electric car manufacturers build in some time-dependent margin into their range estimates? E.g. Only display a range of 350 miles at the start of a battery pack's life even if the real range is 400 miles. To the user, the batter pack performance would appear static (to some limited lifetime, anyway). At the end of life the margin would be zero, and the actual life would be equal to the true battery capacity…

Some do that. The Mercedes B-Class Electric is one example. Tesla is more "honest", so you actually get to see the full capacity.

This does mean that you can see the capacity very slowly decrease over months and years, but I would personally prefer to know what's actually happening and be able to get the maximum range out of my car that I can.

Re: The Chevy Bolt Is the Ugly Car of the Near Future

#134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Tesla also includes the tax credit in their price." This is false... Tesla advertises their model 3 targeted base price as $35,000. This is before any tax credits.

> This is false... Tesla advertises their model 3 targeted base price as $35,000. This is before any tax credits. The Model 3 doesn't exist yet, so how do you know? Where are these advertisements you are seeing?

https://www.tesla.com/model3

Re: The Chevy Bolt Is the Ugly Car of the Near Future

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SSDs do this exact same thing. The individual flash cells have much lower durability than the drive itself.

Hard disks do too but the difference is that for disks it's more or less an essential function. If you don't leave plenty of spare sectors over the very inevitable bad sectors will cause the drive to fail outright. Perhaps that's a decision I'd like to make myself but it's still an essential function no matter what. Leaving spare capacity in my battery isn't an essential function. That extra hundred or two miles the…

Only because our file systems aren't designed with shrinking media in mind. A system could be designed to mimic the behavior of UDFS on CD-R media where the size of the filesystem shrinks with usage.

Re: The Chevy Bolt Is the Ugly Car of the Near Future

#136
post #130
post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tesla is operated very much like a silicon valley startup. They're growing rapidly in the hope of becoming profitable when they reach scale. But they sure as heck aren't profitable right now. They have already reached scale, and are already profitable. They're just pouring their profits back into further growth. Yes, they're spending a lot on R&D, but that's not sending money into a vacuum, that's investing in the…

Tesla is neither at scale nor profitable. They're selling barely 15,000 cars per quarter, compared to Toyota's 2.5 million. They're growing by taking on debt, diluting shareholders, subsidies, and other creative tricks (Model 3 preorders). They've been "profitable" for a single quarter by selling Teslas at a steep discount. Last quarter's report has been widely derided for the financial engineering therein. We'll hav…

> Tesla is neither at scale nor profitable. They're selling barely 15,000 cars per quarter, compared to Toyota's 2.5 million.

Tesla's sales last quarter were 24.5k cars, hardly "barely 15,000". Q4 is expected to meet or exceed that, despite being a shorter quarter.

If you pick the biggest car manufacturer in the world to compare them to, then of course they're going to look small. There are plenty of well-established, profitable car manufacturers that build far fewer cars than Toyota.

I don't want to argue semantics, so I'll leave it open for debate as to whether or not they're "at scale", but comparing them to a startup that hasn't figured out how to turn a profit yet seems highly disingenuous.

> They've been "profitable" for a single quarter by selling Tesla's at a deep discount.

If they can sell cars at a deep discount and still be profitable, then clearly the margins must be pretty good.

Re: The Chevy Bolt Is the Ugly Car of the Near Future

#137
post #109
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I suspect the fact that it's ugly is a feature: it will hamper sales a bit and reduce the chance that they'll need to produce lots of this car. I doubt that. I'm sure GM would be perfectly happy selling millions of these things if consumers were willing to buy. They're in the business of selling cars, after all. But I also doubt they'll put much effort into it.

No, they're in the business of making money. Selling cars is the means to the end. If they can make more money selling fewer cars, they'll do it. You need to look at the overall fleet sales - somebody somewhere has calculated the exact number of each vehicle they need to sell to maximize the profit.

It only hurts them to sell more Bolts if those sales cut into other vehicles or if they're selling at a loss.

Re: The Chevy Bolt Is the Ugly Car of the Near Future

#138

Tesla proved that eco-minded cars didn't need to be ugly, yet ALL other manufacturers continue to produce only ugly cars (they don't get points for bootstrapping hybrid models of existing cars). I am amazed none of the other purveyors of electric cars have managed to figure this out. Even the BMW offering ranks high on the "God what the hell" scale in terms of its design. The Prius started this stupid trend of cars f…

The Nissan Leaf looks about the same as other Nissan cars - check out the Note or Juke. And I think the Bolt looks fine. You just have a weird fear of hatchbacks in the USA.

Except when they're converted to XUVs with jacked suspensions and 18in wheels.

Re: The Chevy Bolt Is the Ugly Car of the Near Future

#139
post #88
post #70

Reading between the lines, I think this car is a trick and not meant to sell at all. They get fleet wide mileage credits by producing it, and they are losing money on each car. Electric cars are easy to make, especially if you don't put much effort into it (example: regenerative brake paddle is separate from normal brake paddle). Dealers don't make as much from servicing electric cars. I suspect the fact that it's ug…

>I suspect the fact that it's ugly is a feature: it will hamper sales a bit and reduce the chance that they'll need to produce lots of this car. I doubt that. I'm sure GM would be perfectly happy selling millions of these things if consumers were willing to buy. They're in the business of selling cars, after all. But I also doubt they'll put much effort into it.

That is what BMW did with i3. They don't like being forced into selling them. Make it look like a turd and then complain about how consumers don't really want them to get the quotas relaxed.

Re: The Chevy Bolt Is the Ugly Car of the Near Future

#140

"Tesla loses money on every car too." This is false, Tesla averages $18,000 margin on every model S & model X it sells. "So how did GM pull off a $30,000 car with 200 miles of range?" It didn't. It is $30k only after $8000 of federal tax credits.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong. It seems like the battery packs on cars are engineered to manipulate people, and this would be an easy way of making two very different cars seem the same. Lithium batteries degrade. With heat, with time, with charge cycles. Article after article writes about how Tesla's battery packs barely degrade! 8% capacity loss over 100,000 miles. This has to be a lie. Unless they've come…

There are many lithium chemistries, and variations within chemistries.

My Nissan has over 30% loss after four and a half years. They clearly use lithium ion/polymer, the lightest but least durable chemistry.

Meanwhile, I have a lithium ferrous phosphate battery pack for a robot that has lost very little capacity over the same time.

It's pretty clear that different manufacturers use different design margins already.

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