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The Chevy Bolt Is the Ugly Car of the Near Future

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Re: The Chevy Bolt Is the Ugly Car of the Near Future

#111

"Tesla loses money on every car too." This is false, Tesla averages $18,000 margin on every model S & model X it sells. "So how did GM pull off a $30,000 car with 200 miles of range?" It didn't. It is $30k only after $8000 of federal tax credits.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong. It seems like the battery packs on cars are engineered to manipulate people, and this would be an easy way of making two very different cars seem the same. Lithium batteries degrade. With heat, with time, with charge cycles. Article after article writes about how Tesla's battery packs barely degrade! 8% capacity loss over 100,000 miles. This has to be a lie. Unless they've come…

I think a variety of things could be going on. Tesla does it's own research on batteries, so it very well could be making batteries that simply last longer than standard Li-ion cells. They also likely try very hard to design the battery management system such that it does not overcharge or totally discharge the batteries, which improves longevity. They also probably try really hard to keep the batteries cool. Batteries in cell phones and laptops typically die fast because people repeatedly discharge them to 5% and charge them to 100%, which puts the cells through the maximum amount of stress due to volume change. There is also poor thermal management in these devices, so the batteries are often hot when you are using your phone/laptop a lot. Lastly, you get a new phone every two years, so phone makers optimize for the highest initial capacity rather than best capacity over time.

Re: The Chevy Bolt Is the Ugly Car of the Near Future

#113
post #70

Reading between the lines, I think this car is a trick and not meant to sell at all. They get fleet wide mileage credits by producing it, and they are losing money on each car. Electric cars are easy to make, especially if you don't put much effort into it (example: regenerative brake paddle is separate from normal brake paddle). Dealers don't make as much from servicing electric cars. I suspect the fact that it's ug…

I seriously doubt they are losing money on each car. Someone calculated a loss per car by amortizing all the current R&D costs into some number they expect GM to sell this year. That doesn't mean parts+labor is more than the sale price. If they make and sell a 100,000 of these things in 2017, they'll make a boat load of profit, trust me.

If they didn't want it to sell, they wouldn't have given it a 60 kWh battery. A car company can get all the fleet credits they need by selling a gasser with the engine ripped out and 20 kWh of batteries shoved in the trunk. I'm getting a little sick of people not giving GM _any_ props at all for doing something pretty amazing here.

Re: The Chevy Bolt Is the Ugly Car of the Near Future

#114
post #71

"Tesla loses money on every car too." This is false, Tesla averages $18,000 margin on every model S & model X it sells. "So how did GM pull off a $30,000 car with 200 miles of range?" It didn't. It is $30k only after $8000 of federal tax credits.

Tesla uses very unconventional accounting to arrive at that gross margin. Specifically they don't subtract R&D costs from their margins. When you correct for this Tesla's gross margin is within a few percent of the median for the automotive industry. > In 2015, Tesla spent over $700 million on research and development while selling about 50,000 vehicles. If Tesla reported gross margins like other automakers, gross ma…

> Tesla is operated very much like a silicon valley startup. They're growing rapidly in the hope of becoming profitable when they reach scale. But they sure as heck aren't profitable right now.

They have already reached scale, and are already profitable. They're just pouring their profits back into further growth. Yes, they're spending a lot on R&D, but that's not sending money into a vacuum, that's investing in the future expansion of the company. The article you link even admits this: "Would it be fair to include the billion-plus dollars spent to bring the Model 3 to fruition in a few tens of thousands of Model X and Model S gross margins? Probably not."

Incidentally, I would take anything from Seeking Alpha with a huge grain of salt. Anyone can post an article on there, and people often try to use that site to skew investor perceptions in their own favor. In fact, the author of the very article you link openly confesses at the bottom that he "may initiate a short position in TSLA over the next 72 hours." Conflict of interest, anyone? If you want to see how profitable Tesla is, I would recommend the GAAP numbers from their last quarterly report, rather than some Seeking Alpha author's selective reinterpretation of the facts.

Re: The Chevy Bolt Is the Ugly Car of the Near Future

#115
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong. It seems like the battery packs on cars are engineered to manipulate people, and this would be an easy way of making two very different cars seem the same. Lithium batteries degrade. With heat, with time, with charge cycles. Article after article writes about how Tesla's battery packs barely degrade! 8% capacity loss over 100,000 miles. This has to be a lie. Unless they've come…

Your figures are way wrong. I have an original Tesla Roadster, bought in 2010, with a battery that is basically the first thing they figured out how to do in order to put a car together. (The Model S battery is much more advanced). I drove the Roadster daily for 6 years, and I had about 12% capacity loss after those 6 years. This was a much better situation than Tesla projected (I don't remember what they said at the…

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Re: The Chevy Bolt Is the Ugly Car of the Near Future

#116

"Tesla loses money on every car too." This is false, Tesla averages $18,000 margin on every model S & model X it sells. "So how did GM pull off a $30,000 car with 200 miles of range?" It didn't. It is $30k only after $8000 of federal tax credits.

Tesla also includes the tax credit in their price. And at present they don't even have a car. Why are people so bitter that GM is competing? Is this not a good thing?

>Why are people so bitter that GM is competing?

The left coast hippies want to root for their home team.

Re: The Chevy Bolt Is the Ugly Car of the Near Future

#117

"Tesla loses money on every car too." This is false, Tesla averages $18,000 margin on every model S & model X it sells. "So how did GM pull off a $30,000 car with 200 miles of range?" It didn't. It is $30k only after $8000 of federal tax credits.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong. It seems like the battery packs on cars are engineered to manipulate people, and this would be an easy way of making two very different cars seem the same. Lithium batteries degrade. With heat, with time, with charge cycles. Article after article writes about how Tesla's battery packs barely degrade! 8% capacity loss over 100,000 miles. This has to be a lie. Unless they've come…

You seem to have bought into the internet myths about Lithium ion batteries. What you claim just isn't true. They do degrade over time but your figures are nuts.

My four year old rMBP has barely degraded at all and my 2.5 year old Nissan LEAF has barely degraded as well.

Try getting some more real world experience with these products before quoting a bunch of internet horseshit.

Re: The Chevy Bolt Is the Ugly Car of the Near Future

#118

This article (like many) misses why people buy Teslas. Teslas are amazing cars that just happen to be electric - not the other way around. The large car companies think that "electric" is enough to sell a car, whereas Tesla knows they need luxury options, autopilot & the supercharger network. I've got a Model 3 reservation myself and wouldn't even think of switching to the Bolt. I want a nice car, not just an electri…

I think Tesla's underappreciated marketing technique is the fact that they make buyers feel like they are not just buying a car but they are part of an historically unprecedented epic effort to use bleeding edge tech to save humanity from global warming, dirty fossil fuels and even from being stuck on earth. It's not clear to me if the humanity saving efforts are 100% genuine on Musk's part or if part of them are int…

So what you're saying is that they're buying a Prius with marketing?

Re: The Chevy Bolt Is the Ugly Car of the Near Future

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong. It seems like the battery packs on cars are engineered to manipulate people, and this would be an easy way of making two very different cars seem the same. Lithium batteries degrade. With heat, with time, with charge cycles. Article after article writes about how Tesla's battery packs barely degrade! 8% capacity loss over 100,000 miles. This has to be a lie. Unless they've come…

Keep in mind you wouldn't regularly fully discharge a car battery pack, however you would discharge a phone battery. Thus capacity reduction occurs at a slower rate than a laptop or phone.

Why don't electric car manufacturers build in some time-dependent margin into their range estimates?

E.g. Only display a range of 350 miles at the start of a battery pack's life even if the real range is 400 miles. To the user, the batter pack performance would appear static (to some limited lifetime, anyway). At the end of life the margin would be zero, and the actual life would be equal to the true battery capacity at that time.

I know Tesla and GM would much more happily report the new battery range than that of a tired, old pack...

Re: The Chevy Bolt Is the Ugly Car of the Near Future

#120
post #34

This article (like many) misses why people buy Teslas. Teslas are amazing cars that just happen to be electric - not the other way around. The large car companies think that "electric" is enough to sell a car, whereas Tesla knows they need luxury options, autopilot & the supercharger network. I've got a Model 3 reservation myself and wouldn't even think of switching to the Bolt. I want a nice car, not just an electri…

I don't doubt you're correct in summarising why many current Tesla owners buy Tesla cars. But if they want to be hugely, mass market successful they need to expand their client base beyond customers who "need" luxury options in a car. It's Tesla that would need to match GM's market proposition, not vice versa. > I want a nice car, not just an electric one, and Tesla's got that in spades. And I suspect many Bolt owner…

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