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Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

techcrunch.com

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Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#41

Post by RealityVoid »

spiderfarmer wrote: post #38
lambdasquirrel wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, given how deep its pockets are and its past propensity to try on big projects, I'd say it was surprising. What's more surprising is that both Apple and Google seem to have ended up in this same place.

It would be different if they already had an attractive car on the road, but they haven't. Just look at how much time and money it takes for Tesla to create a profitable vehicle for the masses. The R&D costs for autonomous driving are small in comparison. If comma.ai can (sort of) create an autonomous vehicle with just a couple of employees and Tesla can go fully autonomous with a sensor suite that's 5% of the cost o…

The technology Google uses is about to become way cheaper. I may be wrong, but from what I've read about the development of LIDAR systems, I estimate the prices will drop in the next few years. I think we're at a similar point where we were a couple of years ago with accelerometers and gyros, before MEMS became commonplace.

Even if I am wrong and the tech breakthrough will not happen, I think the economies of scale that kick in for the large-spread usage of Google's approach would make it competitive enough.

I, personally, believe that Tesla's approach for full autonomy is insufficient.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#42

Post by jzwinck »

spiderfarmer wrote: post #38
lambdasquirrel wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, given how deep its pockets are and its past propensity to try on big projects, I'd say it was surprising. What's more surprising is that both Apple and Google seem to have ended up in this same place.

It would be different if they already had an attractive car on the road, but they haven't. Just look at how much time and money it takes for Tesla to create a profitable vehicle for the masses. The R&D costs for autonomous driving are small in comparison. If comma.ai can (sort of) create an autonomous vehicle with just a couple of employees and Tesla can go fully autonomous with a sensor suite that's 5% of the cost o…

A company like Google has the scale and experience to create a regulatory landscape in which a car even 10% less safe will be forbidden on public roads. They might even look good doing it.

As geohot discovered, cars are sold to consumers only after they are sold to regulators. Tesla understands this, but if someone else builds a safer car, incumbents' experience may be rendered academic.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#43

Post by stunthamsterio »

Insanity wrote: post #33
Loic wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Google develop the car, they need to do all the end user support. This is not in the DNA of Google. If they provide the technology to a car manufacturer, they can extract a fair amount of money from them and they do not have to deal with direct end user support. When my car has a problem, I want to talk directly with someone to get it fixed.

> This is not in the DNA of Google. Google has ventured in that area though, just take a look at Pixel, their smartphone. But the scale difference between developing a smartphone and a car is quite a big step. I am not that surprised though, getting into the car market is difficult and unsure. Just doing the technology part seems to make more sense imo.

I'd say the big difference here is running costs. I've worked with automotive clients (Ford, GM, Renault etc) for a while, and that's a big factor for them, especially in the lease market. Also given that a car is not a 'throw it away and hand the customer a reconditioned unit' item, repairs become far more expensive and time critical.

The sheer drag of maintaining a network of repairers, keeping them stocked with (Sometimes huge) spare parts, managing repair times etc is astonishing. I can see why Google and Apple would want to lean on established players instead of going it alone.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#44

Post by kriro »

emdowling wrote: post #19

It's fascinating to see Google and (purportedly) Apple move in a similar direction away from developing their own actual cars and instead building the software platform. It makes a lot of sense for Google, who have always struggled with selling products direct to consumers. It is more surprising for Apple, but makes sense if you look at how they can add the most value. I'm looking forward to seeing how this plays out…

I wonder if a fully automated car might actually be a different product category than a "regular" car. I could actually see a decent market for (relatively ugly) self driving cars that are mostly seen as a means to get from A to B. In fact I'm not sure if the ownership model is right for this category. I could see renting/leasing these vehicles on a monthly base as a service and the competition being buying a monthly commute ticket for the train or something. I think my train ticket is in the vicinity of 180 Euro/month and all inclusive (insurance, maintenance) leases for midelevel cars are in the 300 Euro/month+gas range but prices go up a lot if you want to lease for <24 month. I could see paying 500-600/month for a self-driving car that I can also use for grocery shopping and other random stuff.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#45

Post by RealityVoid »

I just want to mention that I think Google's partnership with Fiat-Chrysler is badly picked. The engineering of FCA is unimpressive and their process pretty much kills innovation within their company. I may be wrong but I see FCA surfing the google hype train.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#46

Post by semi-extrinsic »

jzwinck wrote: post #42
spiderfarmer wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be different if they already had an attractive car on the road, but they haven't. Just look at how much time and money it takes for Tesla to create a profitable vehicle for the masses. The R&D costs for autonomous driving are small in comparison. If comma.ai can (sort of) create an autonomous vehicle with just a couple of employees and Tesla can go fully autonomous with a sensor suite that's 5% of the cost o…

A company like Google has the scale and experience to create a regulatory landscape in which a car even 10% less safe will be forbidden on public roads. They might even look good doing it. As geohot discovered, cars are sold to consumers only after they are sold to regulators. Tesla understands this, but if someone else builds a safer car, incumbents' experience may be rendered academic.

The problem with this scenario is that modern cars are already safe enough that it will literally take decades to gather enough data to prove a statistically significant 10% safety increase from autonomous cars, even if you sell millions of them.

Keep in mind the NHTSA safety statistics you frequently see quoted are for the entire car population on the road, with a significant portion of 10-15 year old cars which are less safe than new cars. Even 25 year old cars without crumple zones and airbags is something you see on the road every single day.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#47

Post by ralfd »

denzil_correa wrote: post #16

> The Information reports that Google’s self-driving car unit — known internally as Chauffeur — is working with establish automotive names to develop cars which will include some self-driving features, but won’t ditch the steering wheel and pedal controls. Self-Driving cards to self-driving technology was the exact same news which was reported out of Apple "Project Titan" too. It seems to be a trend in this self-driv…

Manufacturing and legislation is difficult enough, but how did Apple/Google plan distribution? Servicing? It is not comparable to consumer tech, very few would buy a car where it is unsure if this is only a hobby and if it it will be supported 5 years down the road. The incumbent car companies have a massive advantage.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#48

Post by saurik »

Insanity wrote: post #33
Loic wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Google develop the car, they need to do all the end user support. This is not in the DNA of Google. If they provide the technology to a car manufacturer, they can extract a fair amount of money from them and they do not have to deal with direct end user support. When my car has a problem, I want to talk directly with someone to get it fixed.

> This is not in the DNA of Google. Google has ventured in that area though, just take a look at Pixel, their smartphone. But the scale difference between developing a smartphone and a car is quite a big step. I am not that surprised though, getting into the car market is difficult and unsure. Just doing the technology part seems to make more sense imo.

Yes: and just take a look at how many people are unhappy with the support they get on their Pixel[1]. The number of people who would be able to tolerate Google's level of hands-off with a car, where the expectation is typically "for the first couple years if anything is even slightly weird you can drive it to your local dealer and someone's job is to try to make you super happy", is going to be much much much lower than the number of people who are currently tolerating it with consumer electronics.

[1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13145400

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#49

Post by eva1984 »

lambdasquirrel wrote: post #17
russdill wrote: post #6

The headline is a bit misleading, it looks like Google is not going to manufacture self driving cars, but will develop self-driving technology. I'm not sure how this is a surprise.

Well, given how deep its pockets are and its past propensity to try on big projects, I'd say it was surprising. What's more surprising is that both Apple and Google seem to have ended up in this same place.

Not that to me. They might just realize a Google branded car is not going to sell well as a BWM.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#50

Post by ForHackernews »

spiderfarmer wrote: post #39
throwaway40483 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Regardless, Google kick-started a lot of other car makers to start developing self-driving cars or made it OK for other car makers to be more public about their efforts. Exactly! This part of Google's legacy is severely under appreciated. People were rolling their eyes when Google originally presented their plan. Amazing how quickly it went from science fiction to reality.

I'd say it was the Darpa Grand Challenge that kickstarted it, not Google. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPA_Grand_Challenge I have the feeling Google never had a real plan behind this research project. Tesla's plan is clear. Uber's plan is clear. What is / was Google's plan?

> What is / was Google's plan?

Track where everyone goes, all the time? (Except they already do this with Android GPS) Show them ads?

I agree, it seems not fully fleshed out.

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