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Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

techcrunch.com

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Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#31

Post by jahnu »

finstell wrote: post #23

Everybody is rushing to develop their own self-driving car, then they change their minds in various ways, then team members change who they work for, some of them quit and start their own company, some fail, some got acquihired. They give deadlines and cannot meet them. Everyone is dying to be first in the market or something like it. Feels there is so much greed. I don't get it, what's the big fuss, why must everyon…

Big risk/reward situation. Althoug the reward is possibly gigantic. It's not even clear that it's possible as described yet, imho. i.e. Fully autonomous vehicles. It's somewhat likely to be a winner takes all situation in terms of market share, patent ownership. I'm exaggerating slightly but I can't see there being more than a couple of big winners in this space.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#32

Post by [deleted] »

finstell wrote: post #23

Everybody is rushing to develop their own self-driving car, then they change their minds in various ways, then team members change who they work for, some of them quit and start their own company, some fail, some got acquihired. They give deadlines and cannot meet them. Everyone is dying to be first in the market or something like it. Feels there is so much greed. I don't get it, what's the big fuss, why must everyon…

[deleted]

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#33

Post by Insanity »

Loic wrote: post #25
lambdasquirrel wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, given how deep its pockets are and its past propensity to try on big projects, I'd say it was surprising. What's more surprising is that both Apple and Google seem to have ended up in this same place.

If Google develop the car, they need to do all the end user support. This is not in the DNA of Google. If they provide the technology to a car manufacturer, they can extract a fair amount of money from them and they do not have to deal with direct end user support. When my car has a problem, I want to talk directly with someone to get it fixed.

> This is not in the DNA of Google.

Google has ventured in that area though, just take a look at Pixel, their smartphone.

But the scale difference between developing a smartphone and a car is quite a big step. I am not that surprised though, getting into the car market is difficult and unsure. Just doing the technology part seems to make more sense imo.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#34

Post by dx034 »

emdowling wrote: post #26
finstell wrote: post #23

Everybody is rushing to develop their own self-driving car, then they change their minds in various ways, then team members change who they work for, some of them quit and start their own company, some fail, some got acquihired. They give deadlines and cannot meet them. Everyone is dying to be first in the market or something like it. Feels there is so much greed. I don't get it, what's the big fuss, why must everyon…

Simple: everyone is looking for the next big platform. The smartphone revolution came by surprise to most and it has taken years for companies to catch up. Everyone is racing because they don't want to be caught with their pants down again.

Exactly that. If one company (especially one with high production capacity) would now release a fully functional self driving car, they could dominate the car market for the next decade. Orders for trucks, delivery vehicles, uber etc would alone max out production for several years. If done by a major player (e.g. Toyota, GM, VW), they could probably get legislation in some states changed quickly if they can proof that their system is safe.

Catching up isn't easy, you won't be able to just reverse engineer it.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#35

Post by hanief »

emdowling wrote: post #19

It's fascinating to see Google and (purportedly) Apple move in a similar direction away from developing their own actual cars and instead building the software platform. It makes a lot of sense for Google, who have always struggled with selling products direct to consumers. It is more surprising for Apple, but makes sense if you look at how they can add the most value. I'm looking forward to seeing how this plays out…

Whether Apple pursue the hardware route remains to be seen. They only changed their strategy, probably to develop the core self-driving technology first then worry about the design of the car later.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#36

Post by prawn »

throwaway40483 wrote: post #7
Pyxl101 wrote: post #3

Is that surprising? I never assumed that Google was planning to build actual cars with this tech. I suppose I never really thought that deeply about how it would roll out, but if I had, I would have guessed partnerships with others in the industry. If they can nail "self-driving tech" as well as they've nailed search, they'll potentially earn licensing fees from all vehicles, rather than from the slice of vehicles th…

I think the insane part of Google's original plan was the "no steering wheel" part, not the fact that they wanted to manufacture the cars themselves. There are so many corner cases. I can't imagine that they would get the tech working 100% out of the gate without needing some sort of manual override.

Surely you can have some level of manual override without a steering wheel.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#37

Post by petra »

emdowling wrote: post #19

It's fascinating to see Google and (purportedly) Apple move in a similar direction away from developing their own actual cars and instead building the software platform. It makes a lot of sense for Google, who have always struggled with selling products direct to consumers. It is more surprising for Apple, but makes sense if you look at how they can add the most value. I'm looking forward to seeing how this plays out…

>> Are cars going to be (even more) commoditised

Self driving cars as a service are much better deal for the consumer. And they'll be more commoditized[1], same as taxis are, from the consumer perspective. On the other hand, building the car with the highest reliability , and the lowest cost of operation , is a hard challenge.

But: if electric cars are going to win, cars may become mostly batteries on wheels, so a lot of power will go to the battery companies, maybe even to the point they'll build the cars(like Samsung is working on).

And about Tesla: a lot of it's value is about brand. cars as a service kill branding(if everybody transports with a Tesla,it's nothing special) . Maybe that's one reason why they don't want their vehicle as a service.

[1]One thing i'm curious about : is taxi sharing realistic in a world of self-driven cars ? one guess: to make it viable, someone would have to build cars that are both shareable, but offer privacy for each of the passengers. And actually, this doesn't require self-driving to offer great value, so i wonder why aren't we seeing work on this?

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#38

Post by spiderfarmer »

lambdasquirrel wrote: post #17
russdill wrote: post #6

The headline is a bit misleading, it looks like Google is not going to manufacture self driving cars, but will develop self-driving technology. I'm not sure how this is a surprise.

Well, given how deep its pockets are and its past propensity to try on big projects, I'd say it was surprising. What's more surprising is that both Apple and Google seem to have ended up in this same place.

It would be different if they already had an attractive car on the road, but they haven't. Just look at how much time and money it takes for Tesla to create a profitable vehicle for the masses. The R&D costs for autonomous driving are small in comparison.

If comma.ai can (sort of) create an autonomous vehicle with just a couple of employees and Tesla can go fully autonomous with a sensor suite that's 5% of the cost of Google's, how much money is there to be made for Apple and Google? Even if the quality of their self-driving setup is 10x better, they will have a hard time selling it.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#39

Post by spiderfarmer »

throwaway40483 wrote: post #14
ragebol wrote: post #4

But they are working with other car makers. Regardless, Google kick-started a lot of other car makers to start developing self-driving cars or made it OK for other car makers to be more public about their efforts. Similarly to Tesla in pushing EV's in other car makers.

> Regardless, Google kick-started a lot of other car makers to start developing self-driving cars or made it OK for other car makers to be more public about their efforts. Exactly! This part of Google's legacy is severely under appreciated. People were rolling their eyes when Google originally presented their plan. Amazing how quickly it went from science fiction to reality.

I'd say it was the Darpa Grand Challenge that kickstarted it, not Google.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPA_Grand_Challenge

I have the feeling Google never had a real plan behind this research project. Tesla's plan is clear. Uber's plan is clear. What is / was Google's plan?

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#40

Post by andybak »

throwaway40483 wrote: post #14
ragebol wrote: post #4

But they are working with other car makers. Regardless, Google kick-started a lot of other car makers to start developing self-driving cars or made it OK for other car makers to be more public about their efforts. Similarly to Tesla in pushing EV's in other car makers.

> Regardless, Google kick-started a lot of other car makers to start developing self-driving cars or made it OK for other car makers to be more public about their efforts. Exactly! This part of Google's legacy is severely under appreciated. People were rolling their eyes when Google originally presented their plan. Amazing how quickly it went from science fiction to reality.

I'm actually stunned. Google's initial announcement was 2012, around the same time as the Oculus Kickstarter. Tesla have stated they expect to enable full automation within a year.

So potentially we've gone from 0 to retail fully-automated vehicles in the same time it's taken to get VR headsets into mainstream usage. If you'd asked me to predict the timescales for these two developments I would have added a decade on to the former.

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