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Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

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Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#51

Post by pfranz »

adevine wrote: post #6

The answer to this question is quite simple, and the two choice sentences from the article: "And their time frame is what, five years? How do you reconcile those two things: It’s a 100-year problem and a five-year investment cycle." The answer is simply that the private equity firm does not account for the long term, but that the city of Miami Beach will have to—soon. And that is fundamentally what makes climate chan…

Assuming the market is working* this should all be factored in. Yeah, economic incentives might be looking at the next financial quarter, but when you finance a building it's amortized over a number of years (most home loans are 30 years, I figure commercial or industrial are longer). Insurance is required to secure financing and insurance should be factoring this in since the whole point is that they're hedging risk and planning for 1 in 100 catastrophes.

On the flip side, major hurricanes have bankrupted insurance companies and left property owners without the benifits they paid for. The two solutions I see are larger (more diversified) insurance companies or the government stepping in to regulate.

* I have little faith that this is actually true

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#52

Post by tqkxzugoaupvwqr »

gniv wrote: post #18
cjlars wrote: post #4

If you look at various financial crises throughout history, you'll see that even amid increasingly clear evidence of problems, the status quo is surprisingly sticky. Things move along as normal, and everything seems fine until suddenly... they don't. In hindsight things seem obvious, but at the time it's difficult to know if you are merely flirting with the edge, or you've actually gone over it. Miami real estate (an…

Or maybe Miami will turn into a Venice-like romantic canal city, where travel will be done by jetski, tourism will flourish, and real estate prices will keep going up.

Isn’t Florida plagued by alligators? A Venice-like canal city and alligators make for an interesting mix.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#53

Post by yourapostasy »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #45

I wonder if this could be considered an opportunity. Let's say for the sake of argument that Miami Beach will be gone 20 - 50 years, subsumed by rising sea levels. Can you build a structure now, while it is above sea level, that in a post sea level rise will be really nice? First suspend the building on pylons that are sunk all the way down to bedrock, second design it so that as an "island" it has great access, an e…

If you use pozzolan concrete reinforced with basalt, then the reinforced concrete part will last.

There is a lot of research on building a "cloak of invisibility" against ocean waves. Earliest I saw about this was back in the 1990's or early 2000's I think, with some Japanese researchers who were the first I recall proposing what is now commonly cited as a discovery in 2008 by UK and French researchers [1].

It would be interesting if the building design can take the large wind loads and use the energy to create and store hydrogen, perhaps re-direct the wind to anchor the building even more if that is a structurally sound approach.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14829-invisibility-cl...

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#54

Post by xapata »

kls wrote: post #43
xapata wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article mentions king tides and cites a report [0] that the floods are getting worse. [0] http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/news-events/press-releases/2016/n...

The floods are worse this year because we have a combination of El Nino weakening the gulf stream which in a normal year has some effect on pushing tides longitudinal as well as flattening them and King tides which are caused by a lunar event, not anything terrestrial. It is an unusually event for sure but has historically happened before. This is a combination of two natural phenomena, nothing more nothing less. It…

You missed the part where the report was discussing the last 10 years, not just the current year.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#55

Post by yardie »

bronson wrote: post #47
sulam wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Before you short, read the Big Short and imagine yourself as Michael Burry. Very often you can be short, right, and lose your pants because markets are slow to recognize things that they are paid to ignore.

Very true. And the Army Corps of Engineers might decide to build some levees and pumping stations, delaying the reckoning indefinitely.

The sea water is coming up through the ground. It's not pouring over a dike.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#56

Post by harryh »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #45

I wonder if this could be considered an opportunity. Let's say for the sake of argument that Miami Beach will be gone 20 - 50 years, subsumed by rising sea levels. Can you build a structure now, while it is above sea level, that in a post sea level rise will be really nice? First suspend the building on pylons that are sunk all the way down to bedrock, second design it so that as an "island" it has great access, an e…

A simpler way might be to purchase land that is currently not beach front, but might become beachfront in the future and, hence, rise in price.

I suppose that might be tricky to predict though.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#57

Post by pixl97 »

dv_dt wrote: post #50
kls wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The floods are worse this year because we have a combination of El Nino weakening the gulf stream which in a normal year has some effect on pushing tides longitudinal as well as flattening them and King tides which are caused by a lunar event, not anything terrestrial. It is an unusually event for sure but has historically happened before. This is a combination of two natural phenomena, nothing more nothing less. It…

If the occurrence of the conditions required for flooding are happening at increased probability driven by climate change, then one could reasonably attribute increased flooding to climate change. If only way to be sure is to wait for the data to show up 50-100 year baseline data for flooding, then by the time you act - all the costly infrastructure commitments have been made... it's another form of socializing the c…

Climate change isn't the only thing that increases the probability. Over the long term they may eventually be the largest cause, but currently I would cite many, many other issues.

Sea walls, land use changes, water pumping, loss of wetlands all affect the severity of tides. All these things could be changed to avoid issues while completely ignoring climate change for now.... Yet they do nothing. Ocean bathymetry is extremely complex, messing with one thing on a shoreline effects everything around it. Just yelling "It's all climate change" is both stupid and dangerous. Trying to stop the shoreline from moving is stupid, expensive, and in the long term, dangerous.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#59

Post by pixl97 »

maxerickson wrote: post #44
finnh wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup. The markets can be irrational longer than you can be solvent. But there must be some arbitrage with derivatives or something, right? =)

You could go long on post sea level rise oceanfront properties. There's probably a few places where a narrow strip of land has enough of the right slope to be a win for quite a range of sea level increases.

And then some idiot will scam the taxpayers in to building a large seawall miles out from your location, leaving you high, dry, and broke.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#60

Post by will_brown »

xapata wrote: post #54
kls wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The floods are worse this year because we have a combination of El Nino weakening the gulf stream which in a normal year has some effect on pushing tides longitudinal as well as flattening them and King tides which are caused by a lunar event, not anything terrestrial. It is an unusually event for sure but has historically happened before. This is a combination of two natural phenomena, nothing more nothing less. It…

You missed the part where the report was discussing the last 10 years, not just the current year.

The above linked article does the same thing the OP does, that is makes a statement about Miami then points to flooding on Miami Beach. Miami is mainland and Miami Beach is a barrier island, yet the increased flooding is only ever claimed on Miami Beach the barrier island, ignoring the fact that the mainland is sea level but sees no increased flooding nor as kls points out there is no increased flooding in the Florida Keyes.

Personally, I didn't know about the Gulf El Nino issue kls pointed out, but there is no ignoring the lunar events (2016 Supermoon) and so it will be interesting to see if flooding begins to decline as the moon begins to move away from the Earth for a couple decades. Again the linked article is very clear the increased flooding is attributable to tide (lunar) events for the most part.

Like all articles it also fails to acknowledge that Miami was swamp turned into land that could be through engineering a massive canal/waterway system and Miami Beach wasn't originally a beach it is artificial, complete with manufactured sand. One thing to also keep in mind is the continued development of Miami Beach over this 10 year time period, which has also meant more recently the island lost land that used to soak up rain water like a sponge in lieu of asphalt that floods (compare this to Florida Keyes where much of the land is protected from development and continues soaking rain water). Again if this were a natural phenomenon caused by climate change as opposed to over development and tide events, Miami and the Keyes would see increase flooding as well but these studies appear to be limited to Miami Beach.

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