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Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

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Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#41

Post by humbleMouse »

gniv wrote: post #18
cjlars wrote: post #4

If you look at various financial crises throughout history, you'll see that even amid increasingly clear evidence of problems, the status quo is surprisingly sticky. Things move along as normal, and everything seems fine until suddenly... they don't. In hindsight things seem obvious, but at the time it's difficult to know if you are merely flirting with the edge, or you've actually gone over it. Miami real estate (an…

Or maybe Miami will turn into a Venice-like romantic canal city, where travel will be done by jetski, tourism will flourish, and real estate prices will keep going up.

I like this hypothesis.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#43

Post by kls »

xapata wrote: post #35
kls wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Miami Beach has always flooded (during full moons water can rise right up through the ground). I have lived in FL all my life (41 years), my family spans back 12 generations from me. King tides are nothing new, nor is Miami flooding during them. I live in the Keys which is lower lying than Miami beach but we have the safety of the barrier reef that mellows the tidal changes, this is just a sensational piece due to a…

The article mentions king tides and cites a report [0] that the floods are getting worse. [0] http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/news-events/press-releases/2016/n...

The floods are worse this year because we have a combination of El Nino weakening the gulf stream which in a normal year has some effect on pushing tides longitudinal as well as flattening them and King tides which are caused by a lunar event, not anything terrestrial. It is an unusually event for sure but has historically happened before. This is a combination of two natural phenomena, nothing more nothing less. It should not be attributed to climate change which has it's own real concerns. Climate change is not contributing to the current situation of Miami being flooded. Attributing it to it, does more to discredit climate change and give voice to fear mongering than it does to further it's cause.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#44

Post by maxerickson »

finnh wrote: post #10
sulam wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Before you short, read the Big Short and imagine yourself as Michael Burry. Very often you can be short, right, and lose your pants because markets are slow to recognize things that they are paid to ignore.

Yup. The markets can be irrational longer than you can be solvent. But there must be some arbitrage with derivatives or something, right? =)

You could go long on post sea level rise oceanfront properties.

There's probably a few places where a narrow strip of land has enough of the right slope to be a win for quite a range of sea level increases.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#45

Post by ChuckMcM »

I wonder if this could be considered an opportunity. Let's say for the sake of argument that Miami Beach will be gone 20 - 50 years, subsumed by rising sea levels.

Can you build a structure now, while it is above sea level, that in a post sea level rise will be really nice? First suspend the building on pylons that are sunk all the way down to bedrock, second design it so that as an "island" it has great access, an easy Marina attachment, a helipad on top (for example). And then make it reasonably self contained (internal shops for transacting supplies, and entertainment). And finally give it oil platform like stamina against hurricanes and storms.

Sort of planning for a post apocalyptic refuge today.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#46

Post by cmurf »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #27
bubbleRefuge wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are so right. We've allways had water come in on high tides. The risk is hurricanes and storm surge, that is why flood insurance is so high on miami beach. (BTW its feels like hurricane frequency is in a downtrend) I just purchased a place on the intercoastal waterway in miami beach after selling my palce in west broward burbs. Flood insurance is around $2500 per year. Windstorm/Homeowners is $4500. Burbs was lik…

> The risk is hurricanes and storm surge, that is why flood insurance is so high on miami beach. This nails it. Miami Beach real estate values will decline as soon as insurance companies throw up their hands and refuse to insure the losses. Can't insure, can't finance a property.

It's a similar problem with mountain (forest) homes and forest fires.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#47

Post by bronson »

sulam wrote: post #8
finnh wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's time to do some research and figure out the appropriate short.

Before you short, read the Big Short and imagine yourself as Michael Burry. Very often you can be short, right, and lose your pants because markets are slow to recognize things that they are paid to ignore.

Very true. And the Army Corps of Engineers might decide to build some levees and pumping stations, delaying the reckoning indefinitely.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#48

Post by nugget »

adevine wrote: post #6

The answer to this question is quite simple, and the two choice sentences from the article: "And their time frame is what, five years? How do you reconcile those two things: It’s a 100-year problem and a five-year investment cycle." The answer is simply that the private equity firm does not account for the long term, but that the city of Miami Beach will have to—soon. And that is fundamentally what makes climate chan…

Almost no 100-year stakeholders exist. Real property owners will have the most to lose but even they have a much shorter time horizon. The solution is probably for some combination of Federal and State led remediation funded by raising the local property taxes by an extreme amount (200-300%) matched by Federal funds. You have to inflict enough pain on the locals that the rest of the country won't complain when they are helped (see Detroit). Whether this is politically feasible (or even Constitutional) I don't know.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#49

Post by drcode »

xkcd-sucks wrote: post #34
rospaya wrote: post #23

They're counting on the city, state and national government to bail them out at some point. Not a literal money bailout, but a "save the citizens" campaign to build massive dykes, move buildings or invest in pumps.

A literal bailout in its original sense of removing out water

Relevant xkcd: https://xkcd.com/558/

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#50

Post by dv_dt »

kls wrote: post #43
xapata wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article mentions king tides and cites a report [0] that the floods are getting worse. [0] http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/news-events/press-releases/2016/n...

The floods are worse this year because we have a combination of El Nino weakening the gulf stream which in a normal year has some effect on pushing tides longitudinal as well as flattening them and King tides which are caused by a lunar event, not anything terrestrial. It is an unusually event for sure but has historically happened before. This is a combination of two natural phenomena, nothing more nothing less. It…

If the occurrence of the conditions required for flooding are happening at increased probability driven by climate change, then one could reasonably attribute increased flooding to climate change.

If only way to be sure is to wait for the data to show up 50-100 year baseline data for flooding, then by the time you act - all the costly infrastructure commitments have been made... it's another form of socializing the costs while privatizing the profits.

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