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Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

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Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#21

Post by sseveran »

finnh wrote: post #5
cjlars wrote: post #4

If you look at various financial crises throughout history, you'll see that even amid increasingly clear evidence of problems, the status quo is surprisingly sticky. Things move along as normal, and everything seems fine until suddenly... they don't. In hindsight things seem obvious, but at the time it's difficult to know if you are merely flirting with the edge, or you've actually gone over it. Miami real estate (an…

I think it's time to do some research and figure out the appropriate short.

Thats pretty easy for an institution to do. You would simply find the most exposed developments with the highest credit ratings and buy CDS on their bonds. The issue is that if this is not a crash (e.g. prices rapidly collapse triggering defaults) its very hard to monetize.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#22

Post by johan_larson »

cityandtech wrote: post #14

It will probably take a single expensive disaster to change behaviours.

That's my bet. Some time in the coming fifty years we will lose the first city to rising water. There will be attempts at mitigation, but they will fail either for lack of money or know-how. And after that we will think differently about this problem.

It could be Miami. It's certainly low-lying enough, and big enough to count. But it's also in the United States, which has a lot of money to throw at problems. Some city in a poorer country would be a better bet.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#24

Post by bubbleRefuge »

will_brown wrote: post #20
cjlars wrote: post #4

If you look at various financial crises throughout history, you'll see that even amid increasingly clear evidence of problems, the status quo is surprisingly sticky. Things move along as normal, and everything seems fine until suddenly... they don't. In hindsight things seem obvious, but at the time it's difficult to know if you are merely flirting with the edge, or you've actually gone over it. Miami real estate (an…

It is a long title as is, but should read Miami Beach . Rising sea levels are an interesting question for barrier islands like Miami Beach and Florida as a whole. Though its important to also understand some of these articles unfairly paint sea level rise and climate change as responsible for a new phenomenon, the truth is Miami Beach has always flooded (during full moons water can rise right up through the ground).…

You are so right. We've allways had water come in on high tides. The risk is hurricanes and storm surge, that is why flood insurance is so high on miami beach. (BTW its feels like hurricane frequency is in a downtrend) I just purchased a place on the intercoastal waterway in miami beach after selling my palce in west broward burbs. Flood insurance is around $2500 per year. Windstorm/Homeowners is $4500. Burbs was like 350 per year for flood.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#25

Post by simonebrunozzi »

finnh wrote: post #5
cjlars wrote: post #4

If you look at various financial crises throughout history, you'll see that even amid increasingly clear evidence of problems, the status quo is surprisingly sticky. Things move along as normal, and everything seems fine until suddenly... they don't. In hindsight things seem obvious, but at the time it's difficult to know if you are merely flirting with the edge, or you've actually gone over it. Miami real estate (an…

I think it's time to do some research and figure out the appropriate short.

I was thinking about it. How would you short something like this?

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#26

Post by kls »

will_brown wrote: post #20
cjlars wrote: post #4

If you look at various financial crises throughout history, you'll see that even amid increasingly clear evidence of problems, the status quo is surprisingly sticky. Things move along as normal, and everything seems fine until suddenly... they don't. In hindsight things seem obvious, but at the time it's difficult to know if you are merely flirting with the edge, or you've actually gone over it. Miami real estate (an…

It is a long title as is, but should read Miami Beach . Rising sea levels are an interesting question for barrier islands like Miami Beach and Florida as a whole. Though its important to also understand some of these articles unfairly paint sea level rise and climate change as responsible for a new phenomenon, the truth is Miami Beach has always flooded (during full moons water can rise right up through the ground).…

Miami Beach has always flooded (during full moons water can rise right up through the ground).

I have lived in FL all my life (41 years), my family spans back 12 generations from me. King tides are nothing new, nor is Miami flooding during them. I live in the Keys which is lower lying than Miami beach but we have the safety of the barrier reef that mellows the tidal changes, this is just a sensational piece due to a rare but historically recurring event. Miami is not flooding for good, we are in a weather cycle coming off El Nino into a lunar cycle, it happens from time to time. It's not exactly intellectually honest to attribute a known phenomenon (King tides, which is the reason Miami is currently flooded) to climate change. It was not climate change in the 1800's when the old timers dealt with them. This is not meant to be a dissertation on climate change, rather to highlight pieces like this do more damage than good to the arguments that climate change science presents when items like this are highlighted as the predicted outcomes.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#27

Post by toomuchtodo »

bubbleRefuge wrote: post #24
will_brown wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a long title as is, but should read Miami Beach . Rising sea levels are an interesting question for barrier islands like Miami Beach and Florida as a whole. Though its important to also understand some of these articles unfairly paint sea level rise and climate change as responsible for a new phenomenon, the truth is Miami Beach has always flooded (during full moons water can rise right up through the ground).…

You are so right. We've allways had water come in on high tides. The risk is hurricanes and storm surge, that is why flood insurance is so high on miami beach. (BTW its feels like hurricane frequency is in a downtrend) I just purchased a place on the intercoastal waterway in miami beach after selling my palce in west broward burbs. Flood insurance is around $2500 per year. Windstorm/Homeowners is $4500. Burbs was lik…

> The risk is hurricanes and storm surge, that is why flood insurance is so high on miami beach.

This nails it. Miami Beach real estate values will decline as soon as insurance companies throw up their hands and refuse to insure the losses. Can't insure, can't finance a property.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#28

Post by [deleted] »

adevine wrote: post #6

The answer to this question is quite simple, and the two choice sentences from the article: "And their time frame is what, five years? How do you reconcile those two things: It’s a 100-year problem and a five-year investment cycle." The answer is simply that the private equity firm does not account for the long term, but that the city of Miami Beach will have to—soon. And that is fundamentally what makes climate chan…

[deleted]

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#30

Post by scarmig »

sbierwagen wrote: post #7
finnh wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's time to do some research and figure out the appropriate short.

The general problem with attempting to profit from global warming is that you end up having to short the entire financial system, and it's tough to make money from the idea of "everything stops working".

Realistically, both Canada and Russia are countries likely to be net beneficiaries of global warming. Taxes won't have to be increased as much to deal with the effects; more taxes will be generated from increased agricultural productivity; and heating costs will decrease. Must be some way to hedge your personal losses from global warming with investments there.
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