Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?
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Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?
#2See also: "Goodbye Miami" from 2013 http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/why-the-city-of-mi... and "The Siege Of Miami", 2015 http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/12/21/the-siege-of-mi...
Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?
#3Because science is part of the big science conspiracy?
Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?
#4If you look at various financial crises throughout history, you'll see that even amid increasingly clear evidence of problems, the status quo is surprisingly sticky. Things move along as normal, and everything seems fine until suddenly... they don't. In hindsight things seem obvious, but at the time it's difficult to know if you are merely flirting with the edge, or you've actually gone over it.
Miami real estate (and other low lying shorefront) isn't quite at that 'oh crap' moment yet. While the evidence for CO2 driven rising sea levels is clear to me, there are plenty of financiers from the previous generation for whom it isn't. And even if they're wrong on global warming, they might be right on sea-walls, pumps and other mitigation methods. The Raising of Chicago lifted the entire city up 3-6 feet with merely 1850s technology, so it's not as if we can't solve Miami's sea level issue with sufficient investment. The issue is who foots the bill, how large it is, and what neighborhoods are left to the sea.
Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?
#5If you look at various financial crises throughout history, you'll see that even amid increasingly clear evidence of problems, the status quo is surprisingly sticky. Things move along as normal, and everything seems fine until suddenly... they don't. In hindsight things seem obvious, but at the time it's difficult to know if you are merely flirting with the edge, or you've actually gone over it. Miami real estate (an…
I think it's time to do some research and figure out the appropriate short.
Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?
#6The answer to this question is quite simple, and the two choice sentences from the article:
"And their time frame is what, five years? How do you reconcile those two things: It’s a 100-year problem and a five-year investment cycle." The answer is simply that the private equity firm does not account for the long term, but that the city of Miami Beach will have to—soon.
And that is fundamentally what makes climate change so difficult to deal with. The economic incentives, which only really look 5-10-15 years out, can't respond to consequences that are 50-100 years out, and by then it's really too late.
Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?
#7If you look at various financial crises throughout history, you'll see that even amid increasingly clear evidence of problems, the status quo is surprisingly sticky. Things move along as normal, and everything seems fine until suddenly... they don't. In hindsight things seem obvious, but at the time it's difficult to know if you are merely flirting with the edge, or you've actually gone over it. Miami real estate (an…
I think it's time to do some research and figure out the appropriate short.
The general problem with attempting to profit from global warming is that you end up having to short the entire financial system, and it's tough to make money from the idea of "everything stops working".
Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?
#8If you look at various financial crises throughout history, you'll see that even amid increasingly clear evidence of problems, the status quo is surprisingly sticky. Things move along as normal, and everything seems fine until suddenly... they don't. In hindsight things seem obvious, but at the time it's difficult to know if you are merely flirting with the edge, or you've actually gone over it. Miami real estate (an…
I think it's time to do some research and figure out the appropriate short.
Before you short, read the Big Short and imagine yourself as Michael Burry. Very often you can be short, right, and lose your pants because markets are slow to recognize things that they are paid to ignore.
Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?
#9Because they like Miami and want to build something there.
They could put an Armani Hotel in Nashville or Indianapolis but those cities are not cool.
Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think it's time to do some research and figure out the appropriate short.
Before you short, read the Big Short and imagine yourself as Michael Burry. Very often you can be short, right, and lose your pants because markets are slow to recognize things that they are paid to ignore.
Yup. The markets can be irrational longer than you can be solvent. But there must be some arbitrage with derivatives or something, right? =)