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How a Pillar of German Banking Lost Its Way

spiegel.de

21–30 of 40 posts

Re: How a Pillar of German Banking Lost Its Way

#21

I think its important to note that they didn't end up this way because they were stupid or power hungry. Like alot of companies, they made decisions that made sense at the time that ended up having poor long term consequences. When they decided to really grow it was due to a couple of things.. 1) Their competitors were all doing the same thing and they almost needed to grow their investment arm and international pres…

Why do you need good traders in a bull market, if everything goes up?

So you can make 20% instead of 10%?

Re: How a Pillar of German Banking Lost Its Way

#22
post #3

I hope there will be a lesson that a steady business or being conservative is often a good thing. It seems there is a lot of pressure to grow until the only way for growing more is to take on a lot of risk or doing unethical things.

That is true, but try telling that story to the shareholders. Most shareholders don't care about long term stability, they just want a profit this year and then cash out and move somewhere else.

Re: How a Pillar of German Banking Lost Its Way

#23
One has to view it from the long term perspective. Germanys success doesent seem very stable from the inside. The age pyramid is similar to japan, and a working social system + lots of future retirees means, there is a lot of unseen future debt here.

The main industry - the car industry is flailing and failing, by falling behind when it comes to e-mobility (except for BMW, but thats just the premium segment). Because of that perfectionism streak in engineering and a attitude against "untouchable" aka not real products, we suck at Software, which shows in particular when you look for example on the digital entertainment market. Pols have the Witcher and lots more, Czechoslovakians have Arma and lots more- what do we got? We make chips and databases- both important fields- but both closer to the german mindset.

Europe is falling apart as we speak, and the inability to fix it shows, as politicians promises the glue that held it together is loosing its binding power. They should have abandoned the brussel parliament, and made a virtual parliament from all the national ones- in this way unifying the whole continent, by having a voted for legislator- that actually has something to say to those who rule the continent.

Also germans democracy suffer from the same symptoms as the US- aka the partys kill it with sleeping pills. The media and they political party system) does not allow and does not show any hard debate (reason: "the citizens dont like it when mummy and daddy fight"), but this creates the impression that the voters causes are unheard and not worth fighting over for. It doesent show who fights for them, and as the eternally same faces deliver the eternally same messages (Too Long Did Not Change; TLDNC: "There is going to be a little bit of hardship, but its going to be good, once we are through it, we take the citizens problems very serious, we will take care of all your problems, as long as you dont have any.."). The state is rife with untouchable special interest groups who basically degenerated to something similar to the regressive left in the US. Lobbyism is even more of a problem- the state literally allows to hire company employees into ministry's, to write on the laws legislating themselves.

While all this is going on, the citizens never get a chance to vote a head of this hydra, thus some "populist" alternative has formed, which is going to win the next Vote, and similar to France is going to rip Germany out of the heart of Europe. Which is a shame- in a world where the big bullys push you around on the schoolyard- being small has lost all the comfort remembered from the cold war.

If you have all this in mind and a picture of the outside world, germanys strategy seems like a long term suicide- and what do you do if your own strategy is failing? You blindly copy whatever strategy the successful competitors employ - of course without understanding whats at its core (careful risk management).

I wouldn't wonder if something similar at some point happens at the German software industry (mainly embedded electronics and databases). Because silicon valley seems so much more successful, blindly try to copy the structure and place some German engineering in it. Then wonder why you always get incremental improved products way to late, instead of brittle cutting edge. Anyway that's the state of the nation, which spawned this bank.

Re: How a Pillar of German Banking Lost Its Way

#24

I think its important to note that they didn't end up this way because they were stupid or power hungry. Like alot of companies, they made decisions that made sense at the time that ended up having poor long term consequences. When they decided to really grow it was due to a couple of things.. 1) Their competitors were all doing the same thing and they almost needed to grow their investment arm and international pres…

According to the article they were both stupid and power hungry and yet you make it sound like they accidentally manipulated Libor or bet against their own clients.

Should we feel pity for them or what? They could have expanded AND kept some control of what the investment bankers were doing.

Other banks managed to reduce their exposure while DB was blisfully sailing ahead, so your assertion that "so is everyone else and if you stop, then the good traders and bankers quit and go to competitors who will let them make money" is incorrect. This is mentioned in the article.

It also says right in the article that traders were amazed how poor the oversight from HQ was.

Re: How a Pillar of German Banking Lost Its Way

#25

I'm not too familiar with the German culture. Can someone explain to me what is this "German provincialism" that they talk about? Do Germans see themselves as provincial? Does anyone else see them as provincial?

There was a good documentary about the financial crisis and the banking crisis from the view of a former German banker called Master of the Universe [0] (has been on public television, but I was not able to find it from a quick search). In this documentary, the banker describes how the Germans were eager to learn from the US bankers in the late eighties and early nineties and how they did not question anything, but b…

The full movie can be watched on the website of the BPB[x]: http://www.bpb.de/mediathek/225092/master-of-the-universe

I really like the style that the main/only actor/narrator is filmed in an abandoned former bank's office buildung.

[x] The Federal Agency for Civic Education, FACE (German: Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung, bpb) is a German federal government agency responsible for promoting civic education.

Re: How a Pillar of German Banking Lost Its Way

#26
post #3

I hope there will be a lesson that a steady business or being conservative is often a good thing. It seems there is a lot of pressure to grow until the only way for growing more is to take on a lot of risk or doing unethical things.

That is true, but try telling that story to the shareholders. Most shareholders don't care about long term stability, they just want a profit this year and then cash out and move somewhere else.

The stock price is set by the expectation of long term increased value, not short term. For the simple reason that if everyone is set to cash out at the peak, there won't be a peak, the stock will tank.

Re: How a Pillar of German Banking Lost Its Way

#27
post #20
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lol, Hinterupfingen. If my German isn't a complete wreck, I believe that implies sticking a digit up the derriere. Similar to our Bumfuck, USA

Sadly, no. Hintertupfingen is merely a invented place which is most removed from the happenings in the rest of the world. Being from Hintertupfingen implies being somewhat of a Redneck or atleast uneducated of what happens in the world.

You're both in agreement.

Re: How a Pillar of German Banking Lost Its Way

#28
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That rat gets used by labor unions across all industries. :)

Cool ! I never knew the US actually has a sort of tradition for this sort of thing. Very cool. http://mentalfloss.com/article/28466/story-behind-giant-infl...

The wall Street bull is a bit similar. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charging_Bull

Re: How a Pillar of German Banking Lost Its Way

#29
Deutsche really lost their way. I used to be their customer for 5 years but then I gave up. Over the past 20 years (roughly what the article covers) they:

- starting from a more "elite", business customer focus

- went pioneering into online banking to get younger customers

- merged the online customers when broadening out online

- tried to get rid of lower revenue customers

- bought the Postal Bank (which was focused on low income customers and had a huge number of them)

- tried to sell Postbank

The back and forth on the local German banking retail market made no sense whatsoever. Twice they were eyeing pools of lower income customers (younger, Postbank), did not fully integrate them and then backed out again.

Re: How a Pillar of German Banking Lost Its Way

#30
post #3

I hope there will be a lesson that a steady business or being conservative is often a good thing. It seems there is a lot of pressure to grow until the only way for growing more is to take on a lot of risk or doing unethical things.

That is true, but try telling that story to the shareholders. Most shareholders don't care about long term stability, they just want a profit this year and then cash out and move somewhere else.

Start paying dividends again. You don't need growth if you get your return in another way.
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