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Global warming: The state of the climate in 2016

economist.com

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Re: Global warming: The state of the climate in 2016

#31

Post by anon1253 »

My worry is that Trump doesn't deny it (well he does publicly), but rather privately realizes that it's already far too late. There's nothing we can do, collapse of global civilization before mid-century is probably inevitable. So what can you do, well ramp up every dirty trick you can think off … because it doesn't really matter and it makes you look good with the public (sorry to say, it does, climate change is still not popular in public discourse).

To stay within the 1.5 to 2ºC bounds, the IPCC already includes massive carbon sequestering technologies in even its most simple recommendations. This is technology that does not exist. We're betting life on Earth (and truly, it is that dire) on tech that might be impossible to build and scale. Even if we reduce our carbon emissions to 0 today the delayed effects and non-linear dynamics are so poorly understood, that it could very well be that nothing truly can be done to avoid our mass extinction. And, this too goes for carbon sequestering; even if we magically suck the last 5 decades of carbon out of the air, some stuff that is broken can't be fixed. Thresholds, catastrophes, oscillations, bifurcations, etc are real. We really have to think in non-linear systems when dealing with climate, and that is something we're very bad at. Especially when it comes to the media-voter complex. But picture this, you are driving your car down some road, and everything is fine. You're minding your own business. There's nobody else there, so what the heck, let's ramp up some of the speed. And you go faster and faster. Until bam, unexpected steep corner, your car flies off the road and you die. At that point going back a couple of miles is never going to fix you. It's too late.

Re: Global warming: The state of the climate in 2016

#32

Post by sqeaky »

Shivetya wrote: post #25
jamesblonde wrote: post #3

The canary in the coalmine for global warming is Arctic sea ice. It is melting at an alarming rate, and we can expect an ice-free (>1m sq km of sea ice) Arctic in the summer within a decade or two (or 3-4 years if recent trends continue!). There's a small active community who follow this. We tend to hang out here - a HN level of polite discussion goes on: http://neven1.typepad.com/

well fortunately the Antarctic is gaining mass, so things happen. We are still only 12k years out an ice age and learning as we go. Natural variability is quite boring so it doesn't make headlines as much as it should. the real reality is that the Paris agreement is a horrid piece of do nothing legislation that lets the major developing powers do what they want all the while getting the nod of acceptance from the UN…

On a geological timescale we are in a cooling trend, but what non-biased source grants credence to the idea that CO2 and Methane aren't warming things right now in greater amounts?

It seems entirely reasonable that anthropogenic climate change is a bigger deal than ice ages and we could prevent one.

Re: Global warming: The state of the climate in 2016

#33

Post by sqeaky »

anon1253 wrote: post #31

My worry is that Trump doesn't deny it (well he does publicly), but rather privately realizes that it's already far too late. There's nothing we can do, collapse of global civilization before mid-century is probably inevitable. So what can you do, well ramp up every dirty trick you can think off … because it doesn't really matter and it makes you look good with the public (sorry to say, it does, climate change is sti…

Carbon sequestering is not as hard as it would seem. We have several technologies, but we can also just plant trees.

Re: Global warming: The state of the climate in 2016

#34

Post by NumberCruncher »

Shivetya wrote: post #25
jamesblonde wrote: post #3

The canary in the coalmine for global warming is Arctic sea ice. It is melting at an alarming rate, and we can expect an ice-free (>1m sq km of sea ice) Arctic in the summer within a decade or two (or 3-4 years if recent trends continue!). There's a small active community who follow this. We tend to hang out here - a HN level of polite discussion goes on: http://neven1.typepad.com/

well fortunately the Antarctic is gaining mass, so things happen. We are still only 12k years out an ice age and learning as we go. Natural variability is quite boring so it doesn't make headlines as much as it should. the real reality is that the Paris agreement is a horrid piece of do nothing legislation that lets the major developing powers do what they want all the while getting the nod of acceptance from the UN…

>> Natural variability is quite boring

After protecting the earth from the giant meteors (at least at the end not a single one hit the earth) we need some new disaster porn.

Re: Global warming: The state of the climate in 2016

#35

Post by mordocai »

blondie9x wrote: post #28
clumsysmurf wrote: post #15

"Convincing Mr Trump of this fact is now an urgent and daunting challenge." By appointing Myron Ebell to lead the transition at the EPA, Mr Trump has made it clear he's made up his mind. Personnel is policy.

It's too bad Americans cannot vote for some of the most prominent cabinet members the way they vote for President/Vice-President. Many of these appointees will have a more direct impact on people's lives but yet they have no say in who will represent them. Democracy?

Representative Democracy yeah. The people voted in Trump who now gets to appoint those positions.

Re: Global warming: The state of the climate in 2016

#36

Post by thesimpsons1022 »

blondie9x wrote: post #28
clumsysmurf wrote: post #15

"Convincing Mr Trump of this fact is now an urgent and daunting challenge." By appointing Myron Ebell to lead the transition at the EPA, Mr Trump has made it clear he's made up his mind. Personnel is policy.

It's too bad Americans cannot vote for some of the most prominent cabinet members the way they vote for President/Vice-President. Many of these appointees will have a more direct impact on people's lives but yet they have no say in who will represent them. Democracy?

as if they're smart enough? they're the ones who put this guy in charge in the first place and filled the house and senate with deniers as well.

Re: Global warming: The state of the climate in 2016

#37

Post by anon1253 »

sqeaky wrote: post #33
anon1253 wrote: post #31

My worry is that Trump doesn't deny it (well he does publicly), but rather privately realizes that it's already far too late. There's nothing we can do, collapse of global civilization before mid-century is probably inevitable. So what can you do, well ramp up every dirty trick you can think off … because it doesn't really matter and it makes you look good with the public (sorry to say, it does, climate change is sti…

Carbon sequestering is not as hard as it would seem. We have several technologies, but we can also just plant trees.

Yes trees are a perfect solution. They've optimized this process through millions of years of evolution. However, we're still removing more trees than adding them per year. Quite impressively so, even. It takes time for forests to grow. A lot of its carbon sink properties are because of soil succession, which takes decades to mature.

Re: Global warming: The state of the climate in 2016

#38

Post by barneygumble742 »

clumsysmurf wrote: post #15

"Convincing Mr Trump of this fact is now an urgent and daunting challenge." By appointing Myron Ebell to lead the transition at the EPA, Mr Trump has made it clear he's made up his mind. Personnel is policy.

It comes down to the DOD having a serious talk with Trump. They have been taking it just as seriously as the EPA.

Re: Global warming: The state of the climate in 2016

#40

Post by worldsayshi »

kristopolous wrote: post #30
papercrane wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is convinced.[1] The American public is convinced, although not as much as they probably should be.[2][3][4] The problem here is to convince world leaders to actually do something. [1] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-16/china-tell... [2] http://climatepublicopinion.stanford.edu/sample-page/opinion... [3] https://environment.yale.edu/poe/v2014/ [4] http://www.gallup.com/poll/190010/concern-global-…

Biggest problem is that climate change aggressively challenges many foundations of capitalism and consumerism. That's a religion to some people. And this is akin to changing it.

Well in the end capitalism determines everyone's personal incomes. As long as the rich keep getting relatively richer and the population bigger the economy has to grow in order to leave at least near as much income for people in general as before.
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