Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk • Hacker News Board

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#101

Post by beachy » Fri, Nov 11, 2016, 12:50 AM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #66

ajross wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> He doesn't seem totally opposed to renewable energy sources: He has a professional climate change denier[1] being trial-ballooned to run the EPA. I think of all the question marks about Trumps seriousness and commitment to specific policy areas (and there are lots -- the guy is a blank slate), environmental issues are the least uncertain. The guy is a straight up head-in-the-sand opponent of anything that looks or…

Trump is bad for the environment (then again, all Presidents have been bad for the environment--nobody has the balls to do what needs to be done), but there are some bright sides. If you look at environmental harms in dollar terms, climate change isn't actually the most harmful thing: http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/External_costs_of_coal . Per kilowatt hour of coal-powered electricity, air pollution generates a…

> Climate change is a sexy issue, but health damage from air pollutants tends to cause more actual health damage.

Except that climate change will ultimately lead to absolute health damage for planet and all of its occupants.

That makes it way more important than health damage in the here and now, even though that's obviously easier to see and relate to.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#102

Post by codingdave » Fri, Nov 11, 2016, 12:56 AM UTC

flukus wrote: post #93

merc285 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yes because we can undo china and india's record breaking smog and pollution. /s

Assuming manufacturing got moved back to America then yes, it can be solved.

Even if not, giving up on doing the right thing just because other countries aren't helping is a very short-sighted approach to worldwide leadership. We can lead the efforts towards a better world.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#103

Post by whybroke » Fri, Nov 11, 2016, 1:00 AM UTC

hoorayimhelping wrote: post #69

lingben wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if you have been paying attention to what he says, then you would have heard that he is incredibly against renewable energy sources, especially wind (he has a major grudge against wind farms ever since his battle with them in Scotland) http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-loses-battle-to-stop-wind-... https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jul/22/trump-re... it is notoriously difficult to pin down what Trump stand…

> it is notoriously difficult to pin down what Trump stands for... > he only truly cares about himself and only thinks about what will benefit him... and his penchant for "clean" coal is crystal clear Which is it? It's hard to pin down what he stands for, or is it crystal clear?

Stands for: ambitious. Against: crystal clear.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#104

Post by twistedpair » Fri, Nov 11, 2016, 1:04 AM UTC

flukus wrote: post #41

lingben wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if you have been paying attention to what he says, then you would have heard that he is incredibly against renewable energy sources, especially wind (he has a major grudge against wind farms ever since his battle with them in Scotland) http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-loses-battle-to-stop-wind-... https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jul/22/trump-re... it is notoriously difficult to pin down what Trump stand…

> it is notoriously difficult to pin down what Trump stands for because it really depends on the day and time and situation since he only truly cares about himself and only thinks about what will benefit him. I think it's more that he knows his audience. He isn't going to talk up renewable in coal mining areas for instance. He isn't talking to the media, he's talking around them.

I recall earlier this year Musk on stage asked about the Presidential election. He was extremely careful about picking his words and at no time bashed or even mentioned Trump. There shouldn't be any bad blood there.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#105

Post by twistedpair » Fri, Nov 11, 2016, 1:06 AM UTC

beachy wrote: post #101

rayiner wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump is bad for the environment (then again, all Presidents have been bad for the environment--nobody has the balls to do what needs to be done), but there are some bright sides. If you look at environmental harms in dollar terms, climate change isn't actually the most harmful thing: http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/External_costs_of_coal . Per kilowatt hour of coal-powered electricity, air pollution generates a…

> Climate change is a sexy issue, but health damage from air pollutants tends to cause more actual health damage. Except that climate change will ultimately lead to absolute health damage for planet and all of its occupants. That makes it way more important than health damage in the here and now, even though that's obviously easier to see and relate to.

You can grow new people (and voters). Takes about 18 years. However, making a new planet, or dropping the ocean levels, takes orders of magnitude longer.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#106

Post by botty_throwaway » Fri, Nov 11, 2016, 1:37 AM UTC

loourr wrote: post #62

This is based on completely the wrong premise, Tesla is an unsubsidized car company. Even if the Solar City deal goes through and the value goes to $0 within a year Tesla will still be a great thriving company. Not only is Tesla a shinning example of American manufacturing (a main Trump tenant), they create cars that are better and more performant then competing gasoline cars, they do it at much higher margins. Tesla…

Sure, oil is subsidized. But it's disingenuous to claim Tesla doesn't play the regulation arbitrage game either.

Not only is demand for Tesla's cars _partially_ sustained through consumer tax rebates, but Tesla's _profitability_ has historically relied on selling ZEV credits. Both of these factors may be cut short by the changing political tides now that the [federal] executive, legislative, and (soon) judicial branches will be majority led by a party that has a rough consensus on switching priorities from the past decade or so.

I'm not trying to antagonize against Tesla specifically, nor prop up the virtues of a truly ecologically-damaging industry that plays by a similar rulebook, but anytime a company's business model relies on a certain political climate rather than _solely_ on efficiency gains through technological innovation, the door swings both ways given a long enough time scale.

Cue discussion about how innovative R&D is not possible without initial government investment, especially against already subsidized industries that don't have to factor in tremendous externalities... but that's a more politically subjective debate compared to just stating how I don't agree with the claim of Tesla being 'unsubsidized.'

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#107

Post by sctb » Fri, Nov 11, 2016, 1:57 AM UTC

XJOKOLAT wrote: post #47

tlack wrote: post #19

He doesn't seem totally opposed to renewable energy sources: "It should be the goal of the American people and their government to achieve energy independence as soon as possible. Energy independence means exploring and developing every possible energy source including wind, solar, nuclear and bio-fuels. A thriving market system will allow consumers to determine the best sources of energy for future consumption." Fro…

Mr Thiel, can you just post under your real name, please? Thanks. EDIT: Keep downvoting, please. Set a record. If there's a moderator watching, PLEASE DELETE MY ACCOUNT. I've just come to an increasing, gut-wretching conclusion that this site is irredeemably tainted by Mr Thiel's involvement and I can no longer be a part of it. Fuck that. I'm out.

This comment just isn't civil or substantive, which is what is expected on this site. If you decide to continue to comment, it has to be within the guidelines or we have to ban the account.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#108

Post by loourr » Fri, Nov 11, 2016, 2:06 AM UTC

botty_throwaway wrote: post #106

loourr wrote: post #62

This is based on completely the wrong premise, Tesla is an unsubsidized car company. Even if the Solar City deal goes through and the value goes to $0 within a year Tesla will still be a great thriving company. Not only is Tesla a shinning example of American manufacturing (a main Trump tenant), they create cars that are better and more performant then competing gasoline cars, they do it at much higher margins. Tesla…

Sure, oil is subsidized. But it's disingenuous to claim Tesla doesn't play the regulation arbitrage game either. Not only is demand for Tesla's cars _partially_ sustained through consumer tax rebates, but Tesla's _profitability_ has historically relied on selling ZEV credits. Both of these factors may be cut short by the changing political tides now that the [federal] executive, legislative, and (soon) judicial branc…

Tax credits will be all exhausted by the time they release the model 3 since it applies for only so many vehicles per manufacturer.

Also the ZEV credits are being sold for less then $0.50 on the dollar if they can find a buyer at all since they don't produce polluting cars themselves (per Teslas latest earnings call) and contribute negligibly to their bottom line.

Not to say that Subsidies haven't helped to get Tesla to where they are, only to say they won't be necessary moving forward.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#109

Post by loourr » Fri, Nov 11, 2016, 2:07 AM UTC

dcosson wrote: post #98

loourr wrote: post #62

This is based on completely the wrong premise, Tesla is an unsubsidized car company. Even if the Solar City deal goes through and the value goes to $0 within a year Tesla will still be a great thriving company. Not only is Tesla a shinning example of American manufacturing (a main Trump tenant), they create cars that are better and more performant then competing gasoline cars, they do it at much higher margins. Tesla…

> Not only is Tesla a shinning example of American manufacturing (a main Trump tenant) Except that they use a ton of automation. I'm very curious how this will play out under Trump. Because even if he does all the things he's been talking about (pulling out of trade deals and raising tariffs) and even if it has the intended short-term effect of bringing more manufacturing back to America, there will be a lot of autom…

That's a good point though they still employ a lot of people.

It'll be interesting when people start trying to deal with the job loss from automation. I'm not sure how you can practically restrict the use of software and robots.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#110

Post by TheSpiceIsLife » Fri, Nov 11, 2016, 2:41 AM UTC

Ixiaus wrote: post #85

rayiner wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump is bad for the environment (then again, all Presidents have been bad for the environment--nobody has the balls to do what needs to be done), but there are some bright sides. If you look at environmental harms in dollar terms, climate change isn't actually the most harmful thing: http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/External_costs_of_coal . Per kilowatt hour of coal-powered electricity, air pollution generates a…

It's not just presidents that don't have the balls, it's also consumers and other policy makers.

You do what you can.

Left my reusable plastic shopping bags at home again, so I took some out of the plastic bag recycling bin in the shopping centre. So then one of the staff from rhe supermarket told me I can take bags out of the plastic bag recycling bin because they belong to the company who recycles them.

What?

So, the situation we find ourselves in here is going to take some leadership.