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Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#11

Post by rgbrenner »

hx87 wrote: post #3
rgbrenner wrote: post #2

It talks about Tesla, but I'm not really sure how much oil prices can really decline. I would be more worried about SolarCity and solar in general. Trump says he wants to expand coal, nat gas, etc.. and cheaper prices for those (and perhaps discontinuation of credits for renewable energy) would discourage new solar installations. What would be really sad is if this policy change causes bankruptcies in renewable energ…

Natural gas would have to be really cheap in order to beat spot prices for solar on sunny days, especially in the southwest. It's still good for peaker plants though. Coal, on the other hand, I don't see being profitable unless Congress starts taxing solar directly, since it still can't beat solar spot prices and it's categorically unprofitable to run coal plants as peakers.

Coal, on the other hand, I don't see being profitable

I was looking up the numbers.. and was happy to see renewables cost being lower. But take a look at this 2015 report from the EIA: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/archive/aeo15/pdf/electricity_g...

At the time at least, "clean coal" is more expensive than solar.. but if you eliminated the carbon capture requirement (ie: "conventional coal"), it significantly reduces the price, bringing it in under solar.

There is a 2016 version of this report.. but it gets rid of the conventional coal costs, because regulation prevents plants without carbon capture from being built. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation....

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#12

Post by gph »

chronic6l wrote: post #10
k8t wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. Tesla's whole philosophy, I think, was to get people to buy their cars simply because it's a better car, not for any environmental reasons. Oil prices will affect them, but can't destroy them

Oh, come on. A major reason people buy Tesla vehicles because they "want to do their part" for the environment.

Yea, but those folks won't change their behavior. If anything they will probably be more encouraged to do more.

I think what OP is getting at is that Tesla isn't aiming for just that demographic. Musk has always wanted to produce his cars so that they are desirable to everyone.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#15

Post by toomuchtodo »

rgbrenner wrote: post #11
hx87 wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Natural gas would have to be really cheap in order to beat spot prices for solar on sunny days, especially in the southwest. It's still good for peaker plants though. Coal, on the other hand, I don't see being profitable unless Congress starts taxing solar directly, since it still can't beat solar spot prices and it's categorically unprofitable to run coal plants as peakers.

Coal, on the other hand, I don't see being profitable I was looking up the numbers.. and was happy to see renewables cost being lower. But take a look at this 2015 report from the EIA: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/archive/aeo15/pdf/electricity_g... At the time at least, "clean coal" is more expensive than solar.. but if you eliminated the carbon capture requirement (ie: "conventional coal"), it significantly reduces…

Coal does not compete against renewables, it competes against combined cycle natural gas plants.

Natural gas pushes the rest of coal out, with the benefit of being lower carbon impact and has the ability to throttle quicker before the evening peak when solar generation recedes. Wind and solar will of course continue to come down in cost, pushing out natural gas, with battery storage replacing the last of natural gas eventually.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#16

Post by rgbrenner »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #15
rgbrenner wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coal, on the other hand, I don't see being profitable I was looking up the numbers.. and was happy to see renewables cost being lower. But take a look at this 2015 report from the EIA: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/archive/aeo15/pdf/electricity_g... At the time at least, "clean coal" is more expensive than solar.. but if you eliminated the carbon capture requirement (ie: "conventional coal"), it significantly reduces…

Coal does not compete against renewables, it competes against combined cycle natural gas plants. Natural gas pushes the rest of coal out, with the benefit of being lower carbon impact and has the ability to throttle quicker before the evening peak when solar generation recedes. Wind and solar will of course continue to come down in cost, pushing out natural gas, with battery storage replacing the last of natural gas…

Coal does not compete against renewables, it competes against combined cycle natural gas plants.

According to the 2016 report, it's tax credits that brings solar PV within 5% of combined cycle plants. Without the credits it's 33% more expensive. (And this is for plants entering service in 2022.)

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#17

Post by toomuchtodo »

rgbrenner wrote: post #16
toomuchtodo wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coal does not compete against renewables, it competes against combined cycle natural gas plants. Natural gas pushes the rest of coal out, with the benefit of being lower carbon impact and has the ability to throttle quicker before the evening peak when solar generation recedes. Wind and solar will of course continue to come down in cost, pushing out natural gas, with battery storage replacing the last of natural gas…

Coal does not compete against renewables, it competes against combined cycle natural gas plants. According to the 2016 report, it's tax credits that brings solar PV within 5% of combined cycle plants. Without the credits it's 33% more expensive. (And this is for plants entering service in 2022.)

Maybe I'm missing your argument? I'm arguing moving to natural gas is a win regardless, even if it takes longer for the cost of solar to come down.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#18

Post by piotrjurkiewicz »

_fizz_buzz_ wrote: post #9
piotrjurkiewicz wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Trump says he wants to expand coal, nat gas, etc.. and cheaper prices for those would discourage new solar installations. This is completely illogical. Increased usage of coal or gas will result in higher prices of those resources, not lower. In addition, switching back to coal and gas as electrical power sources means lower energy costs. Lower energy costs mean lower manufacturing costs, what will finally result i…

He wants to increase supply, which will lower prices.

This makes rest of my statement even more true (lower resources costs -> cheaper electricity -> cheaper manufacturing of electric vehicles -> better business for Tesla).

All they need to do is keep being focused on their primary business, instead buying SolarCity.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#19

Post by tlack »

He doesn't seem totally opposed to renewable energy sources:

"It should be the goal of the American people and their government to achieve energy independence as soon as possible. Energy independence means exploring and developing every possible energy source including wind, solar, nuclear and bio-fuels. A thriving market system will allow consumers to determine the best sources of energy for future consumption."

From https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-president-ele...

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