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Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#31

Post by mikeash »

drzaiusapelord wrote: post #8
rgbrenner wrote: post #2

It talks about Tesla, but I'm not really sure how much oil prices can really decline. I would be more worried about SolarCity and solar in general. Trump says he wants to expand coal, nat gas, etc.. and cheaper prices for those (and perhaps discontinuation of credits for renewable energy) would discourage new solar installations. What would be really sad is if this policy change causes bankruptcies in renewable energ…

Tesla and its customers enjoy a fair bit of subsidies. According to the LA Times that number is around $5bn. Trump has stated he wants to cut these types of subsidies and others for renewables as part of his belief that climate change is a "Chinese hoax." I think Elon has a right to worry here as his products are probably too expensive without these subsidies. Even the Model 3 is pricey without that $7,500 tax break.…

The Model 3 is going to blow through those subsidies within a year of shipping. They're only available for a limited number of cars, then they go away. Tesla clearly thinks that they're viable without the tax credit.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#32

Post by cossatot »

dreta wrote: post #20

If Tesla’s not competitive, then it’s not competitive. I’m glad to see the government involvement being reduced. Let the free market handle things.

It's probably cheaper for government and taxpayers in the long run to for the govermnent to aid in the development of markets for alternative energy that can reduce the negative externalities of pollution, the international control of conventional fuel sources, and ease the transition from finite nonrenewables as supply diminishes, than to sit it out completely and deal with the aftermath.

Not many private investors invest on the >50 year timescales that energy transitions require.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#33

Post by erikpukinskis »

chronic6l wrote: post #10
k8t wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. Tesla's whole philosophy, I think, was to get people to buy their cars simply because it's a better car, not for any environmental reasons. Oil prices will affect them, but can't destroy them

Oh, come on. A major reason people buy Tesla vehicles because they "want to do their part" for the environment.

Yes, true! But that's not the goal. The goal is the Model 3, which should have an industry leading TCO per mile, below the Prius, Honda Fit, etc.

Tesla has been explicitly thanking current buyers of Model S and Model X for doing their part providing cash for this environmentalist project. Elon's earliest statements admit that they can't compete on price as a startup. But they have been driving costs down rapidly and their philosophy as OP stated, is to be the best car available in all senses, and not rely on environmentalist good vibes for sales.

They already did this for acceleration, automation, and running costs. They still have some categories to go. But that doesn't invalidate the suggestion that their philosophy is about feature parity, as opposed to environmental charity.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#34

Post by charlesdm »

chronic6l wrote: post #10
k8t wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. Tesla's whole philosophy, I think, was to get people to buy their cars simply because it's a better car, not for any environmental reasons. Oil prices will affect them, but can't destroy them

Oh, come on. A major reason people buy Tesla vehicles because they "want to do their part" for the environment.

Do you have any proof of that? For example: a major reason people in Belgium buy a Tesla is because you can tax depreciate the car at 120% of purchase value, and other cars only at 60-80%.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#35

Post by lingben »

tlack wrote: post #19

He doesn't seem totally opposed to renewable energy sources: "It should be the goal of the American people and their government to achieve energy independence as soon as possible. Energy independence means exploring and developing every possible energy source including wind, solar, nuclear and bio-fuels. A thriving market system will allow consumers to determine the best sources of energy for future consumption." Fro…

if you have been paying attention to what he says, then you would have heard that he is incredibly against renewable energy sources, especially wind (he has a major grudge against wind farms ever since his battle with them in Scotland)

http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-loses-battle-to-stop-wind-...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jul/22/trump-re...

it is notoriously difficult to pin down what Trump stands for because it really depends on the day and time and situation since he only truly cares about himself and only thinks about what will benefit him. but his pronouncements against renewables and his penchant for "clean" coal, opening up drilling on public lands, fracking, etc. is crystal clear

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#36

Post by Roboprog »

chronic6l wrote: post #10
k8t wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. Tesla's whole philosophy, I think, was to get people to buy their cars simply because it's a better car, not for any environmental reasons. Oil prices will affect them, but can't destroy them

Oh, come on. A major reason people buy Tesla vehicles because they "want to do their part" for the environment.

I think you've confused a Tesla with a Leaf :-)

At least out in my exurban area, upper middle class guys buy Teslas so they can race their sports-car in the carpool lane on the way to a middle management job.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#37

Post by yessql »

mikeash wrote: post #31
drzaiusapelord wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla and its customers enjoy a fair bit of subsidies. According to the LA Times that number is around $5bn. Trump has stated he wants to cut these types of subsidies and others for renewables as part of his belief that climate change is a "Chinese hoax." I think Elon has a right to worry here as his products are probably too expensive without these subsidies. Even the Model 3 is pricey without that $7,500 tax break.…

The Model 3 is going to blow through those subsidies within a year of shipping. They're only available for a limited number of cars, then they go away. Tesla clearly thinks that they're viable without the tax credit.

Yes, this is important. Tesla could blow through all of the credits in 2018. Tesla could technically benefit from the EV tax credit being cancelled after that, since its products would no longer qualify, but the other OEMs that have sat on the sidelines waiting for cheaper batteries would not be able to jump in and take advantage of having a subsidy available to them, but not to Tesla, Nissan, and GM that would have used up their credits.

The design of the EV tax credit is really bad.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#38

Post by yessql »

piotrjurkiewicz wrote: post #18
_fizz_buzz_ wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He wants to increase supply, which will lower prices.

This makes rest of my statement even more true (lower resources costs -> cheaper electricity -> cheaper manufacturing of electric vehicles -> better business for Tesla). All they need to do is keep being focused on their primary business, instead buying SolarCity.

Electricity is basically free compared to gasoline. If you cut the price of electricity in half, it wouldn't move the needle at all on EV sales.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#40

Post by piotrjurkiewicz »

yessql wrote: post #38
piotrjurkiewicz wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This makes rest of my statement even more true (lower resources costs -> cheaper electricity -> cheaper manufacturing of electric vehicles -> better business for Tesla). All they need to do is keep being focused on their primary business, instead buying SolarCity.

Electricity is basically free compared to gasoline. If you cut the price of electricity in half, it wouldn't move the needle at all on EV sales.

Energy used for production of electric cars/batteries (or any other thing manufactured in modern factories) isn't made from gasoline...
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