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The Facebook bubble just popped

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201–210 of 225 posts

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#201

We're all definitely in an echo chamber. Hacker News is an echo chamber. So is Reddit, FB, Twitter, etc. This is what happens when, as an industry, we move towards "personalization". All of our "personalized" feeds allow businesses to increase their ad revenue, but it siphons us away from the rest of the world. 30 years ago, we were beholden to the large media outlets, which is also bad, but I believe we've overcorre…

I actually really dislike the personalization that happens on a lot of sites.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#202

Stop writing narratives out of this. Many of us who are incredulous about this election not because a Republican won but because Donald Trump won. We're shocked that you can mock a war hero, a person with a disability, a sexual assault victim in the public sphere and still get elected. It's not our politics that are shocked it's our sensibilities. Edit: sorry about the original swear.

Exactly! Up until this week, presidents had to be... well, presidential. I'm truly astonished that a demographic who is normally very outraged at moral missteps voted this man into office.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#203
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure what you're talking about? Free speech is about legality of speech; nobody's talked about locking anyone up for supporting a candidate.

Locking up isn't the only way to punish people. There's actually some talk about e.g. firing someone from his/her job for supporting a candidate. Recently, there was a long discussion chain in HN about how Y Combinator should sever any ties to Peter Thiel because he supported Trump. That Thiel "should be fired". Discrimination at work may also be about free speech. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12733024

Right, and it's not because Trump is a republican. That's what people keep missing. Trump is a man who has openly incited violence against ethnic groups! Called for the deportation of muslims. He's called women fat pigs, and boasts about how he screws people in business. He boasts about avoiding taxes! This isn't GW, or McCaine...

Most organizations have a very understandable right to not want to be associated with that. It's called a PR disaster. Somehow Trump is immune, and I will never know how.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#204
post #183
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HN is an echo chamber when it comes to tech choices, but it's absolutely not when it comes to politics. I've seen many pro-Trump supporters in the ranks here, which is very surprising given the demographic.

Really? When I read HN, I got the feeling, most political comments that get upvoted are phrased like "I know everyone here is a liberal leftist, BUT I have to tell you about my conservative right opinion right now, even if you don't wanna hear it!" But I never really encountered these "liberal leftist" majority here. Just in places of the Internet that don't have anything good to say about HN.

Word! (btw. Sanders would have won |-)

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#205
post #101

We're all definitely in an echo chamber. Hacker News is an echo chamber. So is Reddit, FB, Twitter, etc. This is what happens when, as an industry, we move towards "personalization". All of our "personalized" feeds allow businesses to increase their ad revenue, but it siphons us away from the rest of the world. 30 years ago, we were beholden to the large media outlets, which is also bad, but I believe we've overcorre…

HN is an echo chamber when it comes to tech choices, but it's absolutely not when it comes to politics. I've seen many pro-Trump supporters in the ranks here, which is very surprising given the demographic.

Watching the front page through the historical lens of hckrnews.com was very insightful. By default, hckrnews shows articles which have made it onto the front page for at least a little bit of time. Then it would continue to display those, highlighting them in HN orange if they were still on the front page, or turning them black when they fell off (even marking them as dead with a faint grey font when appropriate).

Pro Trump articles (and anti Clinton) would appear on in the sea of other articles, but they were always black or grey within a minute or two of their appearance. Pro Clinton articles were about 50/50 throughout the day, some staying, some being voted off.

I attribute a lot of the lost articles to the feeling of "keep HN clear of politics", and a lot more to fringe/fanatical news sites making being flagged, but the overall trend of preferring Clinton to Trump was definitely visible. Bernie Sanders articles were ones which stayed up even longer than the others combined.

So, long story short, yeah, HN is still quite the political echo chamber. It's understandable: many of us share both general job descriptions and life goals; I'd hazard a guess that most even share an age group and fall within a handful of ethnicities.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#206
post #179
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Anyone who actually spends any amount of time in the political sphere where SJW run rampant is aware of this. I have been reading up on politics or engaged in political discussion online for maybe ~4 hours daily for the past two years. I have never seen "SJW" used non-pejoratively, and I've never seen anyone own the term and apply it to themselves. Not saying you're wrong, but it's not nearly as common as you're pr…

When I have access to my bookmarks later today, I have no problem providing countless prominent individuals in the "SJW Sphere" to prove my point that they use it positively and someone less engaged could easily see it as a positive term. >I have been reading up on politics or engaged in political discussion online for maybe ~4 hours daily for the past two years. The exact opposite of not being politically engaged an…

> The exact opposite of not being politically engaged and having the few times you've seen the term be in a positive usage...

Not sure what you're trying to say here.

I honestly don't care that much about any of this. I know that there are people like you who hate "SJWs", but really what a weird thing to get riled up over. My political engagement has been entirely contrary to the war-profiteering, plundering, pro-corporate elites that run the world, but by all means you keep going after those evil college kids and feminists!

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#207

A popular uprising against Silicon Valley is coming. Already I hear it from people in my life, all over the country. They blame social media for allowing the Trump memes to warp people's opinion. They're starting to put the pieces together on unemployment and blame tech automation for taking jobs and not offering a replacement, especially in the heartland. They're angry with Silicon Valley execs for not putting up an…

I agree this is likely. You know, it's a funny sort of thing - people work in the left-coast SV bubble-world making friendly-looking social media applications and suddenly they find they're being looked at by the Old Media crowd like they're a bunch of weapons dealers. I saw a surprisingly self-aware look at this the other day: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/04/political-me... In short, former cool-kid…

So true too. A long long time ago I was actually involved with Adbusters.. later on, in between stints of automating knowledge workers out of existence, I worked to help engineer some of the viral marketing techniques that were weaponized in this election. After Brexit, I went completely insane from knowing what would happen this week. There was no way to stop it.

The problem is that virtually everyone dramatically underestimates the power of viral manipulation. People believe that they have the power to make their own choices, that they have their own thoughts. But the truth is, they really don't. At all. Manipulating a tribe of humans to your cause is all just a matter of effort and patience. My worldview is shaped by the information I have. I just happen to spend a lot of time consuming complex information. Most people don't have that luxury. So they're completely vulnerable. Social media is powerful beyond the capabilities that I think anyone ever envisioned. And it's begun to take on a new life of it's own.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#208
post #132
post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nassim Taleb has rigorously shown that FiveThirtyEight did not accurately account for uncertainty in their models.

How does one accurately account for uncertainty? If you're talking about Taleb's "black swan" style uncertainty, that's specifically the kind that cannot be taken into account. If you're talking about events being correlated instead of independent, that's what set 538 apart from other poll-aggregators: Nate gave Trump a relatively high chance of winning, because a polling error in one state would likely indicate the…

As I understand it, FiveThirtyEight's models reflect current and past uncertainty, but do not properly take into account future uncertainty. This greatly undermine's their models for use as a prediction, a probability, or a forecast.

At one point, FiveThirtyEight was forecasting/predicting that Clinton had a 66% chance of winning the election. If there were infinite parallel universes that veered off from that moment in time, their implication is that she would win the election in two out of three times. Taleb is saying that is nonsense, that there is more variability than that.

Of course, Taleb's model wouldn't drive page views or get people excited. FiveThirtyEight gives voters a reason to check-in daily on how their candidate is doing in polls, but it is misleading as a forecasting tool.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#209

> On Facebook, a Trump victory was likely, or a Clinton win was all but assured. And if you were watching the election coverage the night of you could very discernibly see the change in the commentators narrative from "yay! Clinton!" to the shock of "Wait, Trump?" to "Those dirty rednecks! (er ... uneducated white folk)" as their reality was changing before them. It wasn't JUST Facebook.

I watched CNN and it was so painful to watch them try to keep it exciting. They didn't want to call Florida for so long even after it became statically impossible for Clinton to make up the difference. The sense I got is the sooner the conclusion is reached, the sooner people stop watching.

I remember Fox News doing something similar for one of the elections that Obama ended up winning, although I don't think it was Florida-specific.

I take this behavior as an example of motivated reasoning in action.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree this is likely. You know, it's a funny sort of thing - people work in the left-coast SV bubble-world making friendly-looking social media applications and suddenly they find they're being looked at by the Old Media crowd like they're a bunch of weapons dealers. I saw a surprisingly self-aware look at this the other day: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/04/political-me... In short, former cool-kid…

So true too. A long long time ago I was actually involved with Adbusters.. later on, in between stints of automating knowledge workers out of existence, I worked to help engineer some of the viral marketing techniques that were weaponized in this election. After Brexit, I went completely insane from knowing what would happen this week. There was no way to stop it. The problem is that virtually everyone dramatically u…

I tend to think that the effectiveness of advertisement and memery really depend on the context. When it comes to something where a choice has direct effects and costs - when buying a plane ticket or an appliance, for example - there is a strong incentive to discern true information and disregard advertising fluff. This is because one's own choice is the determining factor, and a poor choice has clear consequences. But in politics? A single vote is astronomically unlikely to influence anything - so voting is evaluated socially, expressively. Its benefits and costs are what it does for one's self-image, or group membership, or whatever. So there's not much incentive, for nearly everybody, to sort the real from the imaginary when considering politics. That's the kind of environment in which meme magic flourishes, because believing does make it real - real enough for its purposes. This also means that it's nigh-impossible to design or predict success in this sort of information distribution. When your content is made real or unreal by raw imagination and social dynamics, most of it is, I think, a case of people succeeding accidentally and claiming later that that's what they meant to do all along. So it can be powerful - but is almost impossible to control in an organized way.
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