The Facebook bubble just popped • Hacker News Board

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#51

Post by pfortuny » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:33 PM UTC

harveywi wrote: post #42

woodchuck64 wrote: post #15

Not just the left and right's echo-chambers, but those who attempt to actually listen to reality got it wrong, too: FiveThirtyEight for example has been using proven, reality-based statistics for a while and should have predicted this result. (As it was, Silver was lambasted for being too generous on Trump's chances.) At issue in this election is apparently a new idea: people who hold positions that are being publica…

> proven, reality-based statistics Ex falso quod libet. The statistical mechanics can be rock solid, but if the data is garbage or the model is garbage then the prediction will likely be garbage. Hiding behind mechanical minutiae is no excuse for the overtly bold and wrong predictions.

So, why did they not call the data garbage instead of giving us a number?

As with credit agencies... "We do not give advice on investments", yeah but everybody invests based on your ratings.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#52

Post by aikah » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:33 PM UTC

So basically Facebook shows its users content they want to see. How is it a problem? if I have specific centers of interests, I don't want Facebook to show something I'm not interested in. Not because I want to live in an echo chamber BUT because I'dd have to filter content manually which is time consuming. There is nothing wrong with how Facebook works. The goal of Facebook is make money through ads, it's not a charity or a governmental agency (well, that's debatable). My point is Facebook needs to retain users or they'll go somewhere else.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#53

Post by woodchuck64 » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:34 PM UTC

harveywi wrote: post #42

woodchuck64 wrote: post #15

Not just the left and right's echo-chambers, but those who attempt to actually listen to reality got it wrong, too: FiveThirtyEight for example has been using proven, reality-based statistics for a while and should have predicted this result. (As it was, Silver was lambasted for being too generous on Trump's chances.) At issue in this election is apparently a new idea: people who hold positions that are being publica…

> proven, reality-based statistics Ex falso quod libet. The statistical mechanics can be rock solid, but if the data is garbage or the model is garbage then the prediction will likely be garbage. Hiding behind mechanical minutiae is no excuse for the overtly bold and wrong predictions.

> if the data is garbage or the model is garbage

There's no better reality-based approach than aggregating polls across the political spectrum. But who would have thought that all polls would be wrong in the same direction?

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#54

Post by verbify » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:34 PM UTC

sickbeard wrote: post #12

Not to mention realclearpolitics and projectthirtyfive all had poll after poll with all the number crunching data saying Clinton would win. In the end.. clinton: 59,938,290 votes trump: 59,704,886 votes 59million liked all new age sjw stuff 59million other people didn't

This election wasn't just about SJW - it was much more multifaceted than that.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#55

Post by protomyth » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:34 PM UTC

maverick_iceman wrote: post #31

woodchuck64 wrote: post #15

Not just the left and right's echo-chambers, but those who attempt to actually listen to reality got it wrong, too: FiveThirtyEight for example has been using proven, reality-based statistics for a while and should have predicted this result. (As it was, Silver was lambasted for being too generous on Trump's chances.) At issue in this election is apparently a new idea: people who hold positions that are being publica…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_Factor

Particularly nasty this time around with the amount of name calling and threats of violence[1]. I'm pretty sure any tech person who was for Trump shut the heck up after the whole Peter Thiel narrative. The amount of people who would rather act out than understand what is going on is a bit mind blowing.

Of course, this is just a weird year when a third-party had a shot at the 5% and all of them sabotaged themselves by picking people who were uniquely unlikely to get votes. Could have been the setup for a 2020 three party run.

1) you would have to be insane to run a business and have a Trump sign in your window unless you were hoping for an insurance settlement.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#56

Post by AznHisoka » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:34 PM UTC

DubiousPusher wrote: post #30

woodchuck64 wrote: post #15

Not just the left and right's echo-chambers, but those who attempt to actually listen to reality got it wrong, too: FiveThirtyEight for example has been using proven, reality-based statistics for a while and should have predicted this result. (As it was, Silver was lambasted for being too generous on Trump's chances.) At issue in this election is apparently a new idea: people who hold positions that are being publica…

Donald Trump barely won. They regularly gave him a %25+ chance of winning and regularly pointed out that that was a good chance.

he won 2 extra states he had no business winning. thats not barely winning.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#57

Post by acobster » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:34 PM UTC

herbst wrote: post #16

sickbeard wrote: post #9

What an absurd article. Facebook is worldwide but somehow the US only elections popped it's bubble? Not to mention this was a 50/50 opinion split.. not exactly earth shattering.

Well for one thing i never heard anyone using Facebook as news source, if U.S. people really do that there is at least that. Otherwise really absurd article, agreed.

As an American and former FB user I must admit that before I gave it up entirely, it was my primary channel for finding news. This is still true of many of my friends and, I suspect, no small number of Americans.

But yeah.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#58

Post by Pigo » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:35 PM UTC

woodchuck64 wrote: post #15

Not just the left and right's echo-chambers, but those who attempt to actually listen to reality got it wrong, too: FiveThirtyEight for example has been using proven, reality-based statistics for a while and should have predicted this result. (As it was, Silver was lambasted for being too generous on Trump's chances.) At issue in this election is apparently a new idea: people who hold positions that are being publica…

Is it uncommon that I can't ever recall being asked who I'd likely vote for? I suppose there's been a website once or twice that I've clicked a button on, but no one has ever asked me, or called me, or even handed me a survey that I can think of. What is the most common to actually make the inquiries.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#59

Post by ff10 » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:35 PM UTC

misterbowfinger wrote: post #36

We're all definitely in an echo chamber. Hacker News is an echo chamber. So is Reddit, FB, Twitter, etc. This is what happens when, as an industry, we move towards "personalization". All of our "personalized" feeds allow businesses to increase their ad revenue, but it siphons us away from the rest of the world. 30 years ago, we were beholden to the large media outlets, which is also bad, but I believe we've overcorre…

There are now a multitude of echo chambers, you could easily argue that each user has his own personalized bubble. What is different from before social and personalized media is that there is (much) less common experience anymore, no dominant common denominator like a major newspaper. What Zuckerberg should point out is that – in a way – this is detrimental to what his alleged aim with FB is: to connect people. I'm not sure where this will lead us to. Since I started using FB more intensively I actually feel more disconnected from people than ever.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#60

Post by pfortuny » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:35 PM UTC

thewhitetulip wrote: post #46

sickbeard wrote: post #12

Not to mention realclearpolitics and projectthirtyfive all had poll after poll with all the number crunching data saying Clinton would win. In the end.. clinton: 59,938,290 votes trump: 59,704,886 votes 59million liked all new age sjw stuff 59million other people didn't

I find the electoral system in US to be funny. When 47.7% people voted for Hillary and 47.5 voted from Donald, yet Donald won. This is for the second time that Dems have lost this way, the last time was during Al Gore vs Bush

It is a federation of States, not a single State. Each one has its weight as State relative to the federation. So it is not "the people" who vote for the president. It is the people who vote whom their State will vote as president.