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Ask HN: POTUS Donald Trump; What this means to Silicon Valley

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Re: Ask HN: POTUS Donald Trump; What this means to Silicon Valley

#61
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your comment was a very interesting read. A shame that it didn't get any further discussion. I'll give The Book of the New Sun a go. Thanks for your insights.

Thanks. You won't regret it. It is a most extraordinary masterwork. That book changed my thinking in ways I find difficult to describe. It was as if the world suddenly developed richer textures. I don't know if he would agree, but I felt it was a very 'Thielian' book. A lot of his ideas and statements came into focus for me when I read it. Together with the recordings I mention it became quite an experience.

It's also linear extrapolation beyond everyone's individual abilities to react to the immmediate past. That at least is one thing our system enforces: the political cycle forces people to think about the presidency at least once every four years and the senate every two. A long term dip below progress is still possible insofar as the majority of the worlds population live nothing like the lucky minority.

Re: Ask HN: POTUS Donald Trump; What this means to Silicon Valley

#62
post #3

That Peter Thiel is really good at picking winners and disruption.

Having watched and listened to Thiel for several years now, I came up with a pet hypothesis I call 'The Wolfian World' that I feel describes what's going on more accurately than the newspapers. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12884413

I am an immense fan of BOTNS, it is perhaps the most cherished novel in my collection, several years after reading it I still haven't read another novel that has impacted me in a similar fashion (recommendations are welcome), however, while I don't object to your analysis of some of the book's themes, I think your connecting it to current political events is a pretty huge stretch and really only accurate in a somewhat superficial sense. Still, I can't say enough good things about that book so have an upvote.

Re: Ask HN: POTUS Donald Trump; What this means to Silicon Valley

#64
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> which would be very stupid move Why? Because the salaries of US-based programmers would rise? Because companies would be more motivated to train locals instead of importing foreigners?

>Because the salaries of US-based programmers would rise? Because companies would be more motivated to train locals instead of importing foreigners? Or it just speeds up outsourcing.

Exactly. Salaries in western Europe are about half of US salaries, if you go to the East, while still within EU, a programmer could be paid as little as $15-20k/year.

If you go even more to the East - Ukraine, Russia, China, India, etc. you can get very highly qualified people for even less, happy to work on a project for you.

Software is one of the easiest things to outsource/offshore, unlike manufacturing or services. So protectionism is only going to end up harming US in this regard.

Of course, that doesn't mean that the H1B "indentured servitude" system for importing cheap foreign workers shouldn't be fixed. But imposing minimal salary is not the way to do it, IMO.

Re: Ask HN: POTUS Donald Trump; What this means to Silicon Valley

#65
I don't think there will be significant negative drag to Silicon Valley as anti-immigrant policies won't apply to skilled migrants.

Ultimately Trump is a chauvinist and economic with the truth sure, but that just makes him a New York businessman. He is no ideologue and as long as he doesn't kick off a trade war things should level out quite quickly as I note here:

https://governmentsandmarkets.com/trump-the-morning-after-th...

We can also actually expect more support for startups as these are acknowledged job creators. Where the danger comes is in enforcement of anti-monopoly statutes for larger companies, although healthcare monopolies are likely first on the plate.

Re: Ask HN: POTUS Donald Trump; What this means to Silicon Valley

#66
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any (hopefully hilarious) argument behind this statement?

Background: - Behold, the Australian "IT tax" makes everything 60% more expensive here Just Because™. - There's absolutely nothing like Silicon Valley here. If there is I've never heard of it, and I live in Sydney, the most population-dense area. Situation: the two political parties here (Labor and Liberal) have opposing ideas about how to implement our new fiber network. I forget who wants what (which says a lot). -…

I can relate in a certain way. In Germany, the state-owned Telekom wants to avoid the cost for building fiber networks, and instead squeeze multi-hundred-megabit connections through the existing copper wires with VDSL2 Vectoring [1].

They're the only one advocating this. Literally everyone else, from watchdogs all the way up to the EU commission, wants them to do proper fiber networks.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Very-high-bit-rate_digital_sub...

Re: Ask HN: POTUS Donald Trump; What this means to Silicon Valley

#67
post #27

I actually think there is a possibility that it could be easier to get into US as highly skilled migrant under Trump presidency because of his anti-immigrant polities. If he raises a minimum income bar for H1B to 150K and keep the same cap, then it would be much less qualified applicants for H1B visas and therefore there would not be cap overflow with annoying lottery process. Of course, I can't predict what Trump is…

> which would be very stupid move Why? Because the salaries of US-based programmers would rise? Because companies would be more motivated to train locals instead of importing foreigners?

There are two cases why companies would hire foreigners:

1. Hiring foreign workforce despite big supply of local workforce at certain skill level. It should be mediocre skill level with mediocre salaries because otherwise there would not be big supply of local workforce. The only reason why employer would do this is to reduce expenses for paying salaries. Wages for local workforce will decrease as a result of increased overall supply of workforce (locals + foreigners).

2. Hiring foreign workforce because of very small supply of local workforce at certain skill level. It should be pretty high skill level because demand exceeds supply and employers are willing to go through complicated visa process. Often such companies (like Google) are very hungry for talent and constantly hiring. It means that they would hire both, local and foreigners, anyone who is capable to pass their challenging job interview. Those companies are happy to pay decent salary for those rare talents.

So this is background. Now, I will answer to your questions:

If you cut the cap on highly skilled migrants, then temporarily salaries for highly skilled locals would spike, but in the long term such companies could not grow. As a result of this, some companies would go bankrupt (high tech is risky business, if you can't grow, often it means you will be dead) and some companies would go overseas. So in this case, either locals have less job opportunities in their homeland or they fly abroad to countries who are realized that high quality human capital is everything in global economy of 21th century.

Re: Ask HN: POTUS Donald Trump; What this means to Silicon Valley

#68
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any (hopefully hilarious) argument behind this statement?

Background: - Behold, the Australian "IT tax" makes everything 60% more expensive here Just Because™. - There's absolutely nothing like Silicon Valley here. If there is I've never heard of it, and I live in Sydney, the most population-dense area. Situation: the two political parties here (Labor and Liberal) have opposing ideas about how to implement our new fiber network. I forget who wants what (which says a lot). -…

Come over to NZ, they're rolling out Gigabit to all the cities. I'm on 100mb fiber now, but in a few months should be able to upgrade.

Re: Ask HN: POTUS Donald Trump; What this means to Silicon Valley

#69
post #3

That Peter Thiel is really good at picking winners and disruption.

Having watched and listened to Thiel for several years now, I came up with a pet hypothesis I call 'The Wolfian World' that I feel describes what's going on more accurately than the newspapers. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12884413

Dude, turn that comment into a blog post ASAP. It needs a place where it can "live" more permanently
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