Live Presidential Forecast • Hacker News Board

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#191

Post by chiaro » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 4:38 AM UTC

trhway wrote: post #175

chiaro wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, the polls were consistently in the opposite direction. 538 had clinton at 70%, PEC at 99%, everyone else somewhere in between. It's a black swan event, bubble or no.

LA times had it for trump. They had their own weighting. Their results when adjusted for commonly accepted weighting matched the common poll average. So it is in the weighting.

No they didn't:

>Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours.

http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trai...

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#192

Post by humanrebar » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 4:38 AM UTC

SuperManfred wrote: post #122

The season finale of the USA, representative democracy is in a bubble and the bust is inevitable.

On the other hand, the USA has contentious elections on a regular basis with basically no violence. That's the real strength of representative democracy.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#193

Post by ant6n » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 4:40 AM UTC

andars wrote: post #127

SuperManfred wrote: post #122

The season finale of the USA, representative democracy is in a bubble and the bust is inevitable.

Meh. The United States has been through some pretty rough times. It is, of course, impossible to predict the future by looking at the past, but it seems unlikely that this is anywhere near the "season finale".

Definitively season finale. But it's already renewed for another season.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#194

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 4:41 AM UTC

grzm wrote: post #169

internaut wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I called the Gay Marriage Referendum (Ireland), the Brexit Referendum, and now the US elections. Am now wizard. It's 04:13 here but this is too funny not to stay up for.

This was not going to be funny regardless of the outcome. The country is seriously split.

[deleted]

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#195

Post by 75j » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 4:43 AM UTC

ericd wrote: post #180

75j wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. Trump is a monster, but this feels sort of good knowing how Clinton and her supporters acted. If only people could have seen the light about the Clintons a year ago, then maybe there would've been better choices today. And remember! The blame for a Trump presidency lies with none other than Hillary Clinton. She's the one that cheated a popular opponent in the primaries, that strategized to promote Trump during t…

It sounds like you want to cut off your nose to spite your face.

How so? I'm not excited about a Trump presidency.

My hopes are that 1) the media will keep a better eye on Trump (going off the last 8 years, they'll ignore any atrocity as long as it's committed by the blue team), 2) that Trump is not as smart as Clinton, and therefore less able to deceptively achieve his goals and 3) that 4 years of Trump will mobilize Americans to fix their electoral system and seek out real alternatives to the Democrat / Republican duopoly.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#196

Post by Someone » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 4:46 AM UTC

tedunangst wrote: post #174

Someone wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would also hope (I would write 'expect', but I am a bit cynical about the quality of US education) this was taught in elementary school.

People are also inclined to forget things they don't like.

Forget or deny to know? For people living in the USA, forgetting that must be quite a challenge; every four years, there's half a year of real reality tv, extensively covered all over the news, to remind them of it.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#197

Post by Alex3917 » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 4:48 AM UTC

75j wrote: post #195

ericd wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sounds like you want to cut off your nose to spite your face.

How so? I'm not excited about a Trump presidency. My hopes are that 1) the media will keep a better eye on Trump (going off the last 8 years, they'll ignore any atrocity as long as it's committed by the blue team), 2) that Trump is not as smart as Clinton, and therefore less able to deceptively achieve his goals and 3) that 4 years of Trump will mobilize Americans to fix their electoral system and seek out real alter…

You realize that Republicans now control the presidency, the house, the senate, and the supreme court, right? This isn't our Brexit moment, it's our Islamic Republic moment.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#198

Post by tedmiston » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 4:49 AM UTC

spacehacker wrote: post #77

susw wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dug through the code. Just inspected the element showing the number to get the class (.widget-info-display-cont) and searched through 'general-main.js' to find where the element is created. A timer that updates the value in the element is found ~100 lines further down.

What does the require statement do?

That's how they load the module that does the jittering. So by assigning its .get() method to be a noop instead (return 0), it does nothing (besides pointlessly return zero) when attempting to load.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#199

Post by ant6n » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 4:49 AM UTC

Inconel wrote: post #190

ant6n wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except ... how the fuck is Trump going to help those people. It's like those poor, white, rural (, racist) working class folks are eating their face to spite their face.

I imagine at the very least he won't treat them with open contempt and hostility. That probably goes a long way for some of these voters. I'm not a Trump supporter, but I do live in coastal California, and the absolute derision with which I see relatively privileged, affluent, college educated people treat or talk about the working/rural poor in "flyover" country makes me question whether, despite my current views, I…

> I imagine at the very least he won't treat them with open contempt and hostility

As long as you're white, male, hetero, anti-intelectual, Christian, and not born in another country.

EDIT: it seems that people are really sensitive about being called out for all the hate Trump spews in their name.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#200

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 4:49 AM UTC

Inconel wrote: post #190

ant6n wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except ... how the fuck is Trump going to help those people. It's like those poor, white, rural (, racist) working class folks are eating their face to spite their face.

I imagine at the very least he won't treat them with open contempt and hostility. That probably goes a long way for some of these voters. I'm not a Trump supporter, but I do live in coastal California, and the absolute derision with which I see relatively privileged, affluent, college educated people treat or talk about the working/rural poor in "flyover" country makes me question whether, despite my current views, I…

[deleted]