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Live Presidential Forecast

nytimes.com

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Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#121

Post by MichaelBurge »

M_Grey wrote: post #118
mcphilip wrote: post #115

It's looking like it might be a Brexit moment for the USA. The filter bubble echo chamber of social media and 24/7 coverage of celebrities stumping for Clinton is going to leave a lot of people shocked tomorrow when/if it's officially given to Trump.

Then you'll see the economic fallout, and then it's just four years of misery, and people who can afford to, getting the hell out.

Canada's immigration site is down due to volume.

It won't happen, but it'd be hilarious if the Democrats planned to rig future elections by importing millions of immigrants to vote for them, and they instead end up emigrating by the millions to Canada thus swinging it in the opposite direction.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#123

Post by fghgfdfg »

the_duke wrote: post #52
scrollaway wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jitter is a visualization of uncertainty. Rather than display a range, it displays a needle moving within that range. It's only misleading developers, who will think that data is being streamed rather than fetched once. Other than that it's a clever (and yes, entertaining) way of displaying margins of error. Can I offer that, of all the things in news and dataviz to shit on, this isn't one of them? I mean, really, an…

Yeah, I thought about it a little, and I guess you are right. Only a dev would think about the possibility of a statistical model updated with a second(s) granularity. And be disappointed (I was) that it's actually just updated every few minutes with a fetched JSON file, rather than some fancy instant updates pushed down via a websocket connection. :D

I think you're actually completely wrong about that. I think most people will assume it's an actual update when the animation moves. It's the devs that will stop to think if they're actually doing that or not, and have the knowledge to check for themselves.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#125

Post by internaut »

551199 wrote: post #106

Florida for Trump. Trump is the new President! Have a look at https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald to see what kind of people voted for Trump. MAGA! Edit: Downvote all you want doesn't change the outcome :)

! Trump wins Florida!

Favorite Reddit comments so far.

"There is still California, there's always money in the banana stand."

"CNN, now is not the time to be playing an advert for The Man In The High Castle".

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#126

Post by wyldfire »

refurb wrote: post #23
Arkaad wrote: post #3

Wouldn't that influence the voters?

Not sure why you're getting downvoted. I know in Canada they have a media blackout for each timezone until polls close (or are almost closed). The assumption is people will change their vote based on early counts. However, that may have changed with the internet since you can't stop anyone from getting early results. Edit: yup, looks like Canada stopped that back in 2014 [1] [1] http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/electi…

> The assumption is people will change their vote based on early counts.

I think the most likely problem is not votes being swayed by popularity -- probaly moreso is turnout being impacted by a large lead.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#127

Post by andars »

SuperManfred wrote: post #122

The season finale of the USA, representative democracy is in a bubble and the bust is inevitable.

Meh. The United States has been through some pretty rough times. It is, of course, impossible to predict the future by looking at the past, but it seems unlikely that this is anywhere near the "season finale".

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#128

Post by tedmiston »

morgante wrote: post #120
M_Grey wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then you'll see the economic fallout, and then it's just four years of misery, and people who can afford to, getting the hell out.

Where is there to "get out" to though? Economically the US has been outperforming the rest of the world recently. I'm especially worried because the developer job market is a lot worse outside the US than inside it. I genuinely don't know where to go (recession seems inevitable).

Canada, Australia, New Zealand...

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#129

Post by [deleted] »

mcphilip wrote: post #115

It's looking like it might be a Brexit moment for the USA. The filter bubble echo chamber of social media and 24/7 coverage of celebrities stumping for Clinton is going to leave a lot of people shocked tomorrow when/if it's officially given to Trump.

[deleted]

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#130

Post by andars »

ohwello wrote: post #99
Mikeb85 wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Among other things... There's real dissatisfaction among the working class which inspired people to support both Bernie and Trump, and to vote against the status quo.

I'm not satisfied being in the top decile of historical human well-being, let's shake things up and take a shot at some reversion to the mean.

If that is your basis for voting, flip a coin. No single candidate is going to change that, and its not clear if it is even possible to revert so dramatically.
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