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Why terrorism doesn’t work (2002) [pdf]

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Re: Why terrorism doesn’t work (2002) [pdf]

#41
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For instance would the Irish people have their independence from the UK if there was no IRA? Depends which movement called the IRA we're talking about and (more generally) what's meant by "terrorism". There's a degree of a difference between the tactical approach of IRA that won the independence of the Irish Free State in the early twentieth century through classic guerrilla warfare tactics aimed at weakening Briti…

Didn't the provisional IRA force the government's hand in the Good Friday Agreement? There's a fairly good chance the Catholic portion of Northern Ireland, which generally favors independence, will overtake the Protestant population which generally favors union with Great Britain. The GFA allows a popular vote on the matter. So by securing a vote, NI will likely go back to Ireland in a generation or two. There were a…

[deleted]

Re: Why terrorism doesn’t work (2002) [pdf]

#42

Modern-day terrorism is a recruitment scheme. Any attack has the effect of increasing hostilities between groups. Imagine being a teenager with an identity crisis who happens to be part of a minority that the less intelligent half of your home country hates and despises. What group are you most likely to join? And what caused said hate and despise to grow? Right, terrorism. More generally put: Virtually any organizat…

I m not sure why you bring Trump into this, he has nothing to do with Terrorist organization, unless you are trying to say that American Govt is a form of terrorist groups, but in that case, Bush and Obama has been the head of that group for the past 16 years.

Re: Why terrorism doesn’t work (2002) [pdf]

#43

Modern-day terrorism is a recruitment scheme. Any attack has the effect of increasing hostilities between groups. Imagine being a teenager with an identity crisis who happens to be part of a minority that the less intelligent half of your home country hates and despises. What group are you most likely to join? And what caused said hate and despise to grow? Right, terrorism. More generally put: Virtually any organizat…

> This is the correct response to terrorism Breivik was an isolated incident, deadly but isolated non less. There is no correct response to terrorism. All terrorists are different. The IRA isn't the FARC or this or that palestinian groups or Al Qaida or Daesh. Sometimes there is a political solution, sometimes there isn't. There is no political solution with Daesh, these people want to exterminate their enemies, the…

Probably, but we should exterminate them in the most human and democratic manner.

Re: Why terrorism doesn’t work (2002) [pdf]

#44
post #7

If we're talking about the success or failure of terrorism in the Middle East, it's maybe worth considering that while it's not worked out for the Palestinians, it worked out OK for Israel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Irgun_attacks Edit: Or if you prefer you can throw away any data that doesn't back up the hypothesis and you can believe whatever you want.

> while it's not worked out for the Palestinians, it worked out OK for Israel

Why do you say it hasn't worked out for the Palestinians? If it wasn't for the PLO there would be no Palestinian state [1] and the PLO became prominent through terrorist acts [2].

There's a good number of organizations in history that have started with terrorist acts (i.e. atacks against civilians) and ended up in control of a relatively stable territorial state. They include the FLN in Algeria [3], Hezbollah in South Lebanon [4] and the armed wing of the ANC in South Africa [5]. Sure, most if not all have now renounced their terrorist beginnings - so maybe terrorism is not a strategy for the long run. But it's repeatedly provided the initial stepping stone to forming a government.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oslo_Accords

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestine_Liberation_Organizat...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algerian_War#Battle_of_Algiers

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Hezbollah#Suicide_a...

[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umkhonto_we_Sizwe#Bombings

Re: Why terrorism doesn’t work (2002) [pdf]

#45

It absolutely did work in the case of 9/11. It forced Muslims to take sides, that's why Muslims follow their religion in a stricter fashion today,especially in the west, in time of war there can be no moderation and Muslims feel they are at war against non Muslims,whether they admit it or not. And it had an effect of humiliating USA in front of the whole world, but one has to be a non US citizen to understand that fa…

Your logic is flawed here. It is not daily fear of AQ that has Muslims wearing their religiously proscribed clothes.... it is honoring their religion. Specifically, the strain of hard-line Islam which Saudi Arabia has been pushing. That's the underlying theme which encouraged both the rise of AQ and more conservative Islamic attire.

> It is not daily fear of AQ that has Muslims wearing their religiously proscribed clothes.... it is honoring their religion.

You misunderstood my message which was quite clear. There is a strong us VS them mentality among Muslims in the west today which wasn't the case 20 years ago. It doesn't have anything to do with KSA pushing for Salafi, it has everything to do with 9/11.

Re: Why terrorism doesn’t work (2002) [pdf]

#46
post #39
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, it worked out really well for Israel, because all of the Irgun gangs became statesmen or respected military leaders.

The same happened, so some extent, to Nelson Mandela, Gerry Adams, Yasser Arafat and probably many others.

You put Nelson Mandela in that group!

While you're at it, why not add Mahatma Gandhi

Re: Why terrorism doesn’t work (2002) [pdf]

#47
> The international community may not pay much attention to a conflict unless there is media focus on the issue, and the news media are unlikely to pay attention unless there is violence and havoc. [...] The problem of the entertainment-centered media strategies is thus rooted not in ethical flaws of individual editors, but in the fundamental economic structure of the media industry. It is therefore necessary to establish alternative non-profit news organizations to focus on dangerous conflicts and to offset the imbalance caused by the unequal access of the two parts to international news media and to remedy the problem that biased reporting is more profitable than balanced reporting.

I think too much is pinned on the door of the media when reporting on stories when:

(a) they are very far away and of little interest to people

(b) have very difficult solutions and enough nuances to make peoples eyes glaze over

(c) there is alternative coverage of other news that is more interesting

I take something like climate change which has had plenty of media attention, but until the first city sinks underwater there isn't going to be enough impetus for people to take the truly difficult actions. That moves it into the national spotlight and makes it a priority, similar to how terrorism on US soil changes "standard problems in the Middle East" into an important US issue.

> Another reason why the use of terrorism turns out to be counterproductive is that it weakens the ideological standing of the weak part. The ideological condemnation of terrorism for harming innocents is hard to argue against. The use of terrorism thus ruins the only truly efficient weapon that the weak part has: ideological warfare.

The resistance/terrorist/freedom fighter organisation's reputation is pretty worthless to begin with. Even if they're saints, no one is going to know about them or care. On the other hand, the powerful country/organization/political has an incredibly important reputation. It is absolutely worth it for the terrorist organisation to let their own reputation sink into the mud, if in doing so they can draw a response from the target that will tarnish its own reputation. It's like the relationship between politican and heckler; the heckler can say all kinds of things and people barely care, but if the politican really lets loose and responds in kind that can damage their image.

Re: Why terrorism doesn’t work (2002) [pdf]

#48

Modern-day terrorism is a recruitment scheme. Any attack has the effect of increasing hostilities between groups. Imagine being a teenager with an identity crisis who happens to be part of a minority that the less intelligent half of your home country hates and despises. What group are you most likely to join? And what caused said hate and despise to grow? Right, terrorism. More generally put: Virtually any organizat…

I m not sure why you bring Trump into this, he has nothing to do with Terrorist organization, unless you are trying to say that American Govt is a form of terrorist groups, but in that case, Bush and Obama has been the head of that group for the past 16 years.

I'm not sure I explained my comment right in that case. I bring Trump into this because he represents an anti-Muslim voice in the global media and this i significant for the point I'm trying to me. He simply a nice and current example of my little theory here.

Notably I do not mean to get involved in the American election debate.

The more power and attention Trump gets, the more Muslim youths in the West feel repressed and despised. This helps ISIS and similar organizations. It's not a stretch to imagine that more radical Muslim terrorism in the West, should it occur soon, will benefit Trump, and thus the cycle is complete. This is the kind of dynamic that moves people to the fringes, away from tolerance and moderate political opinions.

The awful acts that you mention that Obama and Bush were responsible for were not accompanied with a similar anti-Muslim rhetoric and that breaks this cycle, somewhat at least. This is why I did not bring them up. Note that strictly seen, only one side needs to actually do violence for a cycle like this to spin out of control. It's most important both sides need to commit to a powerful anti-the-other-people rhetoric.

So if you run an extremist organization looking for more power, all you have to do is pick and then provoke an enemy whose leadership you know will make your target audience / electorate feel very uneasy. This is what ISIS is doing and Trump, more than other American politicians, is helping them do it. It's been done many times before, think Rwanda or how Hamas got into power in Gaza.

I don't completely care about the exact definition of terrorism in this case - it's more the observation that acts of indiscriminate violence against people from a certain group puts people from that group up against the group the violence doers are from. Terrorism is one such kind of indiscriminate violence and usually the easiest to apply unless you're a nation state.

Re: Why terrorism doesn’t work (2002) [pdf]

#49
post #13

He seems to have completely missed the reason for 9/11, which is not strange since it was not until the 2004 speech ( http://worldpress.org/Americas/1964.cfm ) that bin Laden explained the reason for the attacks, namely "bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy". In this light it must be regarded as a great success, not a failure, especially since the self bleeding politics continued without much opposition long a…

How do you know this isn't post-fact rationalization from him? I'll agree that 9/11 was successful. Bin Laden clearly wanted to damage the US in some way, and got deeper damages than he could dream about. But I doubt he had any intention of "bleeding them at the point of bankruptcy" at the planning stage.

Of course, it's difficult to know for sure if that was the original plan or not. However the actions seem to be quite consistent with that strategy: Choosing Afghanistan (the grave of empires) as the base of operations, and the selection of targets in the attack looks like an attempt to enrage, not just to cause fear.

Whatever the actual plan was, I do think it involved provoking US to attack Afghanistan.

Re: Why terrorism doesn’t work (2002) [pdf]

#50
post #44
post #7

If we're talking about the success or failure of terrorism in the Middle East, it's maybe worth considering that while it's not worked out for the Palestinians, it worked out OK for Israel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Irgun_attacks Edit: Or if you prefer you can throw away any data that doesn't back up the hypothesis and you can believe whatever you want.

> while it's not worked out for the Palestinians, it worked out OK for Israel Why do you say it hasn't worked out for the Palestinians? If it wasn't for the PLO there would be no Palestinian state [1] and the PLO became prominent through terrorist acts [2]. There's a good number of organizations in history that have started with terrorist acts (i.e. atacks against civilians) and ended up in control of a relatively st…

> Why do you say it hasn't worked out for the Palestinians?

I suppose because I am comparing post-Oslo Palestinian terrorism to early 20th Century Zionist terrorism. Fair point. I'm not sure I agree that Palestine kinda sorta having statehood counts as much a victory, compared to the concrete losses suffered by Palestinians. It's not like Palestinians actually have much control over the territory their state claims.

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