Why terrorism doesn’t work (2002) [pdf]
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Re: Why terrorism doesn’t work (2002) [pdf]
#2This assumes that these groups believe their actions will lead to a direct outcome. What if these groups are acting in order to force their adversary to change via dealing with less violent but equally reactionary forces.
For instance would the Irish people have their independence from the UK if there was no IRA? If there was no violence why would the UK give them something they;re not willing to take, especially when states typically only respond to violence.
Re: Why terrorism doesn’t work (2002) [pdf]
#3This assumes that these groups believe their actions will lead to a direct outcome. What if these groups are acting in order to force their adversary to change via dealing with less violent but equally reactionary forces. For instance would the Irish people have their independence from the UK if there was no IRA? If there was no violence why would the UK give them something they;re not willing to take, especially whe…
The independance war's IRA has nothing to do with the terrorist IRA, the second one accomplished virtually nothing.
Re: Why terrorism doesn’t work (2002) [pdf]
#4Supplementary comment: Also ironic that this article is posted today, on the historic day when the balfour declaration was executed and probably put in motion one of the greatest catastrophes in modern time. No single colonial imposition can be seen to have such a direct link to so many modern terrorist activities.
Re: Why terrorism doesn’t work (2002) [pdf]
#5This assumes that these groups believe their actions will lead to a direct outcome. What if these groups are acting in order to force their adversary to change via dealing with less violent but equally reactionary forces. For instance would the Irish people have their independence from the UK if there was no IRA? If there was no violence why would the UK give them something they;re not willing to take, especially whe…
> For instance would the Irish people have their independence from the UK if there was no IRA?
Depends which movement called the IRA we're talking about and (more generally) what's meant by "terrorism". There's a degree of a difference between the tactical approach of IRA that won the independence of the Irish Free State in the early twentieth century through classic guerrilla warfare tactics aimed at weakening British security forces and making Ireland ungovernable and and some of the more stereotypical terrorist activities carried out by the Provisional IRA in the late twentieth century involving the high profile bombing of city centres with the (wholly unsuccessful) aim of weakening the British public's resolve to continue to support the Union in Northern Ireland.
Re: Why terrorism doesn’t work (2002) [pdf]
#6This assumes that these groups believe their actions will lead to a direct outcome. What if these groups are acting in order to force their adversary to change via dealing with less violent but equally reactionary forces. For instance would the Irish people have their independence from the UK if there was no IRA? If there was no violence why would the UK give them something they;re not willing to take, especially whe…
Which IRA? Because there was the old IRA in the run-up to the formation of Ireland, then there was the anti-treaty IRA from '20s to early '70s that didn't recognise Ireland or Northern Ireland either. Or the Official IRA, mainly marxist, from the '70s? Or the Provisionals who were the IRA of the peace process.
Re: Why terrorism doesn’t work (2002) [pdf]
#7If we're talking about the success or failure of terrorism in the Middle East, it's maybe worth considering that while it's not worked out for the Palestinians, it worked out OK for Israel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Irgun_attacks
Edit: Or if you prefer you can throw away any data that doesn't back up the hypothesis and you can believe whatever you want.
Re: Why terrorism doesn’t work (2002) [pdf]
#8This assumes that these groups believe their actions will lead to a direct outcome. What if these groups are acting in order to force their adversary to change via dealing with less violent but equally reactionary forces. For instance would the Irish people have their independence from the UK if there was no IRA? If there was no violence why would the UK give them something they;re not willing to take, especially whe…
I came to make a similar comment, but more focussed on the diversity of Northern Ireland's current political landscape, as a direct result of the Troubles.
Re: Why terrorism doesn’t work (2002) [pdf]
#9You can't fail unless you have a goal, and this article doesn't describe the goals terrorism fails at, or whether those are actually the goals of terrorists.
Re: Why terrorism doesn’t work (2002) [pdf]
#10This assumes that these groups believe their actions will lead to a direct outcome. What if these groups are acting in order to force their adversary to change via dealing with less violent but equally reactionary forces. For instance would the Irish people have their independence from the UK if there was no IRA? If there was no violence why would the UK give them something they;re not willing to take, especially whe…
Another possible goal of terrorists could be to bring about an atmosphere or force a narrative. For example, by attacking a country, it might make it easier to recruit when the inevitable cultural backlash results in increased hate-crimes and racism toward the minority.
I imagine that this wasn't one of the goals of the IRA, but it looks to be a major motivator for ISIS, which is trying to recruit from the vast majority of peaceful Muslims in the world with a narrative of West-vs-Islam. If even a very small number of Muslims are radicalised because their mosque was burned down or their mother assaulted, for example, that's still a win for the terrorists.
Due to the asymmetric nature of terrorism, which after all is the whole motivation behind using terrorism in the first place, I think it's useful to apply some of the same thinking we do when considering the payout for spam email - if one in 100,000 buys the product / falls for the scam, it's a success.