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No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming

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Re: No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming

#281
post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Corrugated iron is infamously loud in rain. What type of metal roof are you considering that wouldn't be such an earsore?

Here in NZ most roofs are corrugated iron, and people love the sound of rain on them. Different cultures... There is another good reason for our love affair with iron - we get a lot of earthquakes. An iron roof provides a lot of structural bracing, and it's negligible weight provides much less moment than slate or tile alternatives.

Math checks out! I'm from Europe and my roof in Auckland is corrugated iron. I hate it when it rains.

My father's business is roofing. His client once ordered dog booth made from corrugated metal. Even dog hated it during the rain.

Re: No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming

#282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Roof replacement is quite a dirty business, in more than one sense of the term, and there are regions where whole roofs are replaced by the majority of insured homeowners every 10 years or less. Any dent that can be made in this problem is a good thing, and this looks to be quite a large dent indeed.

> roofs are replaced by the majority of insured homeowners every 10 years or less Well I was going to be astonished, but Google and Wikipedia seem to tell me US roofs are a consumable and usually asphalt! Most UK roofs are tile, slate if older, and asphalt shingles reserved for sheds, garden structures etc. Tile lifespan should be 60+ years. As much as I like the improved aesthetics I don't see the tiles making much…

They last 30 years, but you replace them every 10 years because the home insurance company demands it. In some areas, roofs older than 10 years are uninsurable.

An expensive roof would be a mistake, even if it can last 1000 years, because you will still need to replace it within 10 years.

Re: No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming

#283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tar shingles are pretty damned heavy. If you've never experienced it, try picking some up at your hardware store, they have a bit of a weigh budget to work with. And then if you want some sympathy for your roofers, imagine slinging a box of those while standing on a diagonal surface 20 feet in the air in the afternoon sun. Yikes. I'd almost worry more about about the size of the panels making installation problematic…

Solar, surprisingly enough, has a higher death per kilowatt rate than nuclear, primarily because roofing work is so dangerous. Nowhere close to mining coal of course. http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/10/energys-de...

Given that solar installations are tiny and nuclear installations are huge and have generally excellent safety records, this seems quite reasonable.

Re: No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming

#284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That has to be the geekiest explanation of a tree I've seen in awhile.

How about from a marketing perspective? Solar 'Sorb(TM) -- The revolutionary shade technology which keeps you cooler in the summer and warmer in winter. Innovative "cell" technology is at the heart of the Solar 'Sorb system. Proprietary nanotechnology utilizes clean solar energy, water and air to fill your yard with beautiful fractal-inspired spires, that not only look great, but save you money. And there is no compl…

Lol. :)

Re: No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming

#285
post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Search for images of solar shingles and you'll see what I mean about previous attempts. The first 9 images Google returned in the top 2 rows for "solar shingles" have 2 pictures from Tesla/SC's presentation. (~22%). The 3 top rows (13 images) contain 3 images from the presentation (~23%). It looks like you're right about the change to come.

I had much better luck seeing the "previous attempts" by opening up a private/incognito window, and using this as the full search term: solar shingles -tesla YMMV :)

Here's what Google Trends returns for "solar shingles" for the past 5 years.

https://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=solar%20shingles

Re: No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming

#286
post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Search for images of solar shingles and you'll see what I mean about previous attempts. The first 9 images Google returned in the top 2 rows for "solar shingles" have 2 pictures from Tesla/SC's presentation. (~22%). The 3 top rows (13 images) contain 3 images from the presentation (~23%). It looks like you're right about the change to come.

I just made the same search, and indeed several of the top images are from the Tesla presentation. However, what have surprised me more is discovering that"solar shingles" have been a thing for so much time, and there are already some quite decent looking models, even curved ones. Of course, I have never heard about it. Tesla marketing is really far ahead of everyone else.

I've been interested in solar since I saw a solar powered Casio watch as a kid but haven't kept up with the technology.

The panels are ugly and having to add a panel to get solar energy is clunky. I want to believe, looking at all the devices a smartphone has replaced, that one day this won't be the case.. Then I look at trees, devices that had millions of years to improve solar energy conversion but still rely on solar panels and it calms my passions. But maybe, we could evolve and plug the Calvin cycle into the Krebs cycle! Our skin has a surface of about 2m². We could go solar (would have to walk naked) or cover up and eat food. Maybe will come a time where people who rely on food are the pariahs of society. The "Covered Ones".

I suppose one great revolution would be finding a way to add the photovoltaic effect to materials (paints, fabrics, plastics, etc) or make these materials with the effect embedded. I think there are flexible panels that are being made, but even those look weird. I want it to be a materials property, similar to the antimicrobial property of copper alloys.

The irritating thing with microelectronics is that the die is minuscule and beautiful, but then you have to add pins and pads and a package. Dust is also a problem. It's amazing that a thin film of dust you couldn't even notice without a finger swipe could have such an impact. And then there's the connection between transistors that has to be a certain way.

What would be great would be for the transistor to become a molecule or be packaged in a molecule. Water is water and no matter the phase, the molecules adapt to find their place with respect to each other. The layout needs to be independent of humans' will and answer only to the laws of nature (you don't worry about each molecule when you apply a coat of paint).

Re: No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming

#287
This is really nice to see an innovation on something "old but new again" like a roof. Roofs are not exactly the industry/product space we see a lot of innovation in lately. The typical asphalt/cedar/steel/terracotta roofs we know of today have mostly been serving the needs of homeowners reasonably well for a very long time.

Tying to beat those materials out on functionality, cost, reliability, and longevity is a tall order, to be sure. Mixing in the ability to grab the sun's energy and use it to power your home and mechanicals and devices is a compelling option. But because electricity is electricity is electricity (To most people) the economics of this are going to be absolutely key.

Whereas the iPhone really did bring significant usability innovations to people's lives, as in the ability to do new and useful things that were previously harder or more annoying in the past, this type of roof doesn't necessarily provide more functionality. Though the heated roof certainly could be useful in cold climates. But again, I think that the economics are going to be very critical to seeing wider adoption for this.

Re: No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming

#288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If we were to make, say, traffic signals more efficient by synchronizing them, or somehow increase capacity on freeways, people would just drive more. Or say, invent self-driving cars...

That will just clog roads more, doesn't matter how much you mechanize it. Self driving cars will induce massive amounts of demand piled atop the latent demand that already exists for driving on nearly every arterial and freeway in cities, and even if everything was perfect, with cars driving at an optimal 45mph with minimal stopping distance, you can only move 2200 cars an hour per lane [1] and that scales non-linear…

If we'll use them as "self-driving taxis" more than personal cars — if you're not attached to a specific "your" car — some nice things might start happening:

(1) multi-modal mass transit/car mixing becomes more attractive.

(2) transit can optimize for high-frequency mini/microbus formats rather than least-number-of-employed-drivers. this is less optimal from road-occupation POV but can be a win if it makes more people actually use transit?

(3) required parking space drastically decreases. Reaping the benefits will take a LONG time, but we'll be able to go back to denser cities?

Re: No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming

#289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another major difference: iPhone was a platform. As more people bought the iphone, - the phone became more attractive to 3rd party accessory makers (protective cases, cables, etc) and apps makers. - the phone itself became more valuable to owners, as more complementary products became available. - the phone became more valuable to Apple, who could get feedback and make the phone better. The hockey stick on the analog…

Surely the complimentary products are ones compatible with the Tesla connector. Electric motorcycle or RV for the weekend or electric lawn mower. Just throwing it out there.

An entire charging industry akin to gas/petrol stations is another side benefit. These businesses could be located in "unusual" areas such as multi storey car parks because there isn't the same danger posed by large amounts of liquid fuel. This alone will be an enormous industry.

Re: No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming

#290
post #38

I'm sure i'm not the only one who feels like this is possibly the iphone moment of Solarcity/Tesla: an old-ish idea, made sexy and tasty to consumers, together with technology reaching a tipping point(and also Musk again finding a way to maximally exploit government subsidies for clean tech.) The tesla car itself could count as well, but felt less "design driven" imo. If this fails, everyone will call it obviously du…

fossil fuel industry people are somehow able to forget that they get subsidies right now every time they comment about clean tech subsidies.

many subsidies are not actual savings but "we could've charged you more, but we're not"
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