No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming • Hacker News Board

Re: No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming

#61

Post by jomamaxx » Mon, Oct 31, 2016, 9:45 PM UTC

wojcech wrote: post #38

I'm sure i'm not the only one who feels like this is possibly the iphone moment of Solarcity/Tesla: an old-ish idea, made sexy and tasty to consumers, together with technology reaching a tipping point(and also Musk again finding a way to maximally exploit government subsidies for clean tech.) The tesla car itself could count as well, but felt less "design driven" imo. If this fails, everyone will call it obviously du…

From a popular perspective - you are maybe right - they 'sexified' something not quite so sexy.

However - I suggest this won't work out like the iPhone.

Why?

Because --> 'new roofs' are not built that often, by that I mean new homes and roofing replacements. And the construction industry has totally different dynamics.

Putting on a 'regular' new roof is expensive. Most people won't consider this tech unless their home is up for a new roof. The other market would be new homes.

So there's a growth/market limit.

Second is price. This kind of technology exists already in many forms. It hasn't been adopted because it's very expensive, and requires some other ugly equipment that has put a drag on PV installation like the conversion technology required to connect to the grid.

The choice to purchase an iPhone is mostly emotional.

The choice in roofing is not. It's definitely mostly a calculation. They are very expensive, and people will look into the long-term conversion value etc.

I'll wager that this new Tesla roof will not be price competitive for current solar/roofing situations, moreover, even if it were - it still might not make sense from a dollars perspective, as the current solar/roof installations basically don't work out economically. It's for wealthier types and/or those with 'green aspirations'.

Finally - these are not things you can buy from wallmart and install yourself. You can't even get your local roofer to do it. Typically, roofers have to be trained on the materials, installation etc.. There is the issue of warranty and distribution for 'new tech' in building - which is slow to adoption. Builders etc. are not 'magpies' like techies. They are averse to new gear, and typically wait for others to figure it out before buying in. Also - they simply tend not to be ver progressive.

Go and ask your local builder if he wants to send his crew to California for 'Training on Tesla's new roof' and his mental calculation will be 'how many of my current customers are asking for it'? And of course the answer will be none.

The fundamental issue with all of this solar tech is that it simply does not generate enough electricity to quite warrant the cost unless all the conditions are right.

+ If it's really sunny a lot + Major government subsidies + A new subdivision was created with 'all solar roofing' thereby keeping the costs down to economies of scale + High electricity prices in the region + The grid is fundamentally designed for renewables

etc. etc.

It takes a lot of the right ingredients.

Re: No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming

#62

Post by robbrown451 » Mon, Oct 31, 2016, 9:46 PM UTC

amelius wrote: post #48

wojcech wrote: post #38

I'm sure i'm not the only one who feels like this is possibly the iphone moment of Solarcity/Tesla: an old-ish idea, made sexy and tasty to consumers, together with technology reaching a tipping point(and also Musk again finding a way to maximally exploit government subsidies for clean tech.) The tesla car itself could count as well, but felt less "design driven" imo. If this fails, everyone will call it obviously du…

> I'm sure i'm not the only one who feels like this is possibly the iphone moment of Solarcity/Tesla: an old-ish idea, made sexy and tasty to consumers, together with technology reaching a tipping point Except one ingredient is missing: most people cannot afford one, even if they tried really hard.

He's pitching it as being basically break even, when electricity costs are factored in. My guess is an awful lot of people can afford this, especially for new construction. Certainly enough to keep up with ability to ramp up manufacturing and training of installers.

And then the economies of scale (and hopefully competition) will kick in and it should reach a point where nearly every new house, and nearly every replacement roof, will be solar by default. At least in climates friendly to solar.

IPhone got a lot of attention when it was released, but it was a while before they became common with more than just the early adopter crowd. This might take a while longer for various reasons, but still, this is a big deal.

This has an interesting twist. While it is subtle, people can tell you have it. People like to impress their neighbors. But this one isn't just "look how much money I have" but "look how I am using my money to be a responsible citizen of the planet." If you are going to try to enter the "keep up with the Jones's" race, this isn't a bad way to go about it.

Re: No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming

#63

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Oct 31, 2016, 9:46 PM UTC

philipkglass wrote: post #22

I had serious misgivings when Tesla/SolarCity announced a switch of focus to building-integrated PV. Historically, BIPV is where a PV technology goes to die after it's failed to compete against incumbent module designs. But these have far better aesthetics than previous BIPV efforts. They look better individually and they aren't clumped in one odd shiny patch on the roof like past BIPV. Search for images of solar shi…

[deleted]

Re: No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming

#64

Post by philipkglass » Mon, Oct 31, 2016, 9:46 PM UTC

smoyer wrote: post #24

If the solar shingles last far longer than my current shingles (which actually need to be replaced soon), what about the degradation of the solar cells themselves? Traditional PV panels degrade and have to be replaced sooner than many roofing materials.

There are a lot of different degradation mechanisms that affect silicon based PV modules.

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/pdfs/pvrw2010_wohlgemuth_s...

Most typical failures are thermomechanical fatigue and chemical breakdown of encapsulant and backsheet materials. Musk said that these are made of quartz (vitreous silica?) which has a very low coefficient of thermal expansion and should reduce thermomechanical fatigue on connections. By all appearances these are glass on both sides, no backsheet polymer layer, hence no backsheet breakdown possible. These small modules are going to be more robust against mechanical damage than modules with larger surface areas.

Both Silevo and Panasonic* base their cell technology on n-type monocrystalline silicon, which exhibits negligible light induced degradation over time (an optoelectronic effect which can gradually reduce efficiency of more common p-type cells). The glass-all-around design also eliminates the chances of potential induced degradation. The median degradation rate for crystalline silicon PV modules as a group is only 0.5% per year (meaning 86% of original rated output after 30 years) and these modules look like they can achieve significantly lower degradation rates than that. Poor execution can ruin any concept, of course, but these really look like they could work for several decades.

*SolarCity acquired PV startup Silevo and originally intended to ramp the technology up to gigawatt manufacturing scale in a new factory in Buffalo, NY. More recently they've stated that Panasonic will run the Buffalo factory and the cell tech will be some kind of blend between Panasonic and Silevo; both companies' cell technology are based on heterojunction cell designs on n-type monocrystalline silicon substrates.

Re: No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming

#65

Post by espadrine » Mon, Oct 31, 2016, 9:47 PM UTC

pfarnsworth wrote: post #8

jaggederest wrote: post #5

I think it's interesting looking at it from the other end - as a homeowner, I can tell you that roofing is an expensive proposition. If this can be competitive with traditional roofing and have a longer life expectancy, I'd buy in a heartbeat. It has the potential to displace thousands of tons of asphalt shingles per year with the equivalent of recyclable glass, which is pretty fantastic. The embodied energy of produ…

I need to replace my roof and I've been quoted almost $20k. If these are within $5k of that price, then I will jump on it.

I would expect something like triple the price of a normal roof, payable over the course of many months.

I believe Mr Musk argues that, with the greatly lowered electric bill and more durable roof, the solar roof is a cheaper proposition after 20 years.

Re: No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming

#66

Post by jzwinck » Mon, Oct 31, 2016, 9:48 PM UTC

amelius wrote: post #48

wojcech wrote: post #38

I'm sure i'm not the only one who feels like this is possibly the iphone moment of Solarcity/Tesla: an old-ish idea, made sexy and tasty to consumers, together with technology reaching a tipping point(and also Musk again finding a way to maximally exploit government subsidies for clean tech.) The tesla car itself could count as well, but felt less "design driven" imo. If this fails, everyone will call it obviously du…

> I'm sure i'm not the only one who feels like this is possibly the iphone moment of Solarcity/Tesla: an old-ish idea, made sexy and tasty to consumers, together with technology reaching a tipping point Except one ingredient is missing: most people cannot afford one, even if they tried really hard.

The way I remember the first iPhone, it was hilariously expensive, yet lacked appeal to business users who at the time were the key demographic for such expensive widgets.

Relative to the benchmark of "People who can afford to buy a home in the US," perhaps a solar roof is not so unattainable. It just has to look great, convey social status, and be durable.

Most US home owners don't pay for their house (or car) outright. The putative purchase price of photovoltaic panels may not be prohibitive even for plebs.

Re: No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming

#67

Post by jomamaxx » Mon, Oct 31, 2016, 9:48 PM UTC

jackmott wrote: post #58

amelius wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm sure i'm not the only one who feels like this is possibly the iphone moment of Solarcity/Tesla: an old-ish idea, made sexy and tasty to consumers, together with technology reaching a tipping point Except one ingredient is missing: most people cannot afford one, even if they tried really hard.

That kind of reminds me of Ballmer's "FIVE HUNDRED DOLLARS?" moment.

"That kind of reminds me of Ballmer's "FIVE HUNDRED DOLLARS?" moment."

$500 is not that much more expensive than a Nokia device at the time, and well within the surplus that a good chunk of people have to pay - especially when subsidized by carriers.

$30 000 - $100 000 - is another ballpark entirely in terms of cost. And it has to work out economically or it won't get anywhere, many ingredients are needed to make it work right.

Re: No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming

#68

Post by robbrown451 » Mon, Oct 31, 2016, 9:48 PM UTC

baby_wipe wrote: post #59

aerovistae wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another side note: it always annoys me when people insinuate that Musk using government funds is a bad thing. The government is literally just US....it's our money and a collection of individuals from among us who we've appointed to handle the general administration of us and the space we take up. Why should American entrepreneurs, particularly ones doing such an outstanding job of moving technology in a positive dir…

-

Yes, one is game theoretically stable, and one isn't.

(the one that isn't is individuals voluntarily giving money to things where the benefit is shared by all)

Re: No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming

#69

Post by fweespeech » Mon, Oct 31, 2016, 9:48 PM UTC

amelius wrote: post #48

wojcech wrote: post #38

I'm sure i'm not the only one who feels like this is possibly the iphone moment of Solarcity/Tesla: an old-ish idea, made sexy and tasty to consumers, together with technology reaching a tipping point(and also Musk again finding a way to maximally exploit government subsidies for clean tech.) The tesla car itself could count as well, but felt less "design driven" imo. If this fails, everyone will call it obviously du…

> I'm sure i'm not the only one who feels like this is possibly the iphone moment of Solarcity/Tesla: an old-ish idea, made sexy and tasty to consumers, together with technology reaching a tipping point Except one ingredient is missing: most people cannot afford one, even if they tried really hard.

It appears to be the same strategy as Tesla...

High end models few can afford at first, then slowly moving into the "regular guy" market once the R&D is done and mass production bottlenecks are solved.

Re: No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming

#70

Post by mrtron » Mon, Oct 31, 2016, 9:48 PM UTC

JoelBennett wrote: post #49

I'm curious - I still haven't seen any details on how these are installed. How are things wired - does the wiring run under the shingles themselves? Also, how does it work with odd sized/shaped roofs - e.g.: something that isn't exactly a multiple of 1/2 a shingle?

I expect for the odd sized they would have border shingles that match and are easily cut. Wiring seems like one of the hardest things to get right with these, especially given the environmental conditions!