Interestingly, from a cursory glance at those images, it looks like the biggest gap between the model and the data is in Iran and central Asia. The model predicts a low incidence of civilization there, which makes sense due to the region's low agricultural potential, but in reality large civilizations have thrived in those areas. I wonder what factor explains this divergence? Trade along the Silk Road?
Computer Simulations Suggest War Drove the Rise of Civilisations (2013)
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Re: Computer Simulations Suggest War Drove the Rise of Civilisations (2013)
#22And then there is Caral, a civilization that seems to have evolved without any violence. Here is an excellent video about the discovery [1].
0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caral 1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ef0jSXv9Jyk
Re: Computer Simulations Suggest War Drove the Rise of Civilisations (2013)
#23The older I get, the more it strikes me that civilization is inherently unstable. It may be metastable, in the way that a predator-prey relationship is stable. A technological civilization like ours is not stable. It's a conflagration . It's subject to a number of exponential processes. Our economy is based on exponentiation. If progress is based on war, then that's just another nail in the coffin. This makes for a p…
This is why it's critical to become starfaring as soon as possible. Every year we delay carries tremendous risk.
Re: Computer Simulations Suggest War Drove the Rise of Civilisations (2013)
#24The older I get, the more it strikes me that civilization is inherently unstable. It may be metastable, in the way that a predator-prey relationship is stable. A technological civilization like ours is not stable. It's a conflagration . It's subject to a number of exponential processes. Our economy is based on exponentiation. If progress is based on war, then that's just another nail in the coffin. This makes for a p…
This is why it's critical to become starfaring as soon as possible . Every year we delay carries tremendous risk.
Maybe the rise of the automatons will keep humanity in check.
Re: Computer Simulations Suggest War Drove the Rise of Civilisations (2013)
#25Yes: geostrategy is a huge defining factor in the organization of the planet, the movement of people and the evolution of society. It is a primary factor, including resource extraction technologies, agricultural capability, and more. I think rounding that up to "drove the rise of civilizations" is a crude way to put that. For example, the simulation pits "agriculture plus military" against "agriculture". Then they fo…
Wouldn't the "military" only group be able to terrorize the agriculture only as well as the ag plus military ones? Something akin to the Danes at one point? They could just build it up so that they could go pillaging indefinitely, so long as they don't outright destroy their target civs.
Re: Computer Simulations Suggest War Drove the Rise of Civilisations (2013)
#26Things liberals won't like to hear.
Re: Computer Simulations Suggest War Drove the Rise of Civilisations (2013)
#27Sid Meier knows it better ehehe
Re: Computer Simulations Suggest War Drove the Rise of Civilisations (2013)
#28Yes: geostrategy is a huge defining factor in the organization of the planet, the movement of people and the evolution of society. It is a primary factor, including resource extraction technologies, agricultural capability, and more. I think rounding that up to "drove the rise of civilizations" is a crude way to put that. For example, the simulation pits "agriculture plus military" against "agriculture". Then they fo…
Wouldn't the "military" only group be able to terrorize the agriculture only as well as the ag plus military ones? Something akin to the Danes at one point? They could just build it up so that they could go pillaging indefinitely, so long as they don't outright destroy their target civs.
I'm not sure the Danes were ever military only, Denmark was also an agricultural society during the viking period. As I understand it, the viking raids were in fact organised around the agricultural calendar, with the two raiding seasons taking place after the harvest and after the sowing. And of course the Vikings were interested in acquiring farming land and often settled and farmed in their places of conquest.
A more apt comparison might be pastoralist raiders as mentioned in Turchin's War and Peace and War, whose nomadic lifestyle led naturally to the development of military skills that could be applied in raids on settled communities. Turchin wrote a lot about the Tatars and the Mongols could also be a good example.
Re: Computer Simulations Suggest War Drove the Rise of Civilisations (2013)
#29For those interested in Peter Turchin's work, he just released a new book called "Ages of Discord". It's got a lot of mathematical notation, but if you're not put off by that it's a good read. http://peterturchin.com/ages-of-discord/
Re: Computer Simulations Suggest War Drove the Rise of Civilisations (2013)
#30Earlier quoted context omitted.
The pressure analogy seems reasonable to me. It suggests that this goes both ways: Two societies pushing against each other lead to pressure. This pressure results in military conflict. Whoever wins the military conflict can exert increased pressure. The necessity of winning wars put pressure on the society to develop better ways of winning wars. These better ways put more pressure on external societies, etc. China w…
-> They stagnated basically because there was little to no fighting. A fair assessment, but now I realize that another way to say this is - They stagnated because there was little to drive innovation. Stated this way, it at least makes us consider that there might be an alternative to constant warfare as a driver of progress. Maybe recognition of this is some kind of societal turning point as well?
Modern capitalism, combined with the expectation that things should improve over time (which wasn't very prevalent until recently) can be one hell of a driver.