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Computer Simulations Suggest War Drove the Rise of Civilisations (2013)

ua-magazine.com

11–20 of 101 posts

Re: Computer Simulations Suggest War Drove the Rise of Civilisations (2013)

#11
Yes: geostrategy is a huge defining factor in the organization of the planet, the movement of people and the evolution of society. It is a primary factor, including resource extraction technologies, agricultural capability, and more.

I think rounding that up to "drove the rise of civilizations" is a crude way to put that. For example, the simulation pits "agriculture plus military" against "agriculture". Then they found that including both food security concerns and physical security concerns more closely predicted known outcomes.

Had they put "agriculture plus military" against "military" and found that including both was better than just simulating physical security we would have gotten the title "Computer Simulations Suggest Food Drove the Rise of Civilizations".

I think the takeaway (besides how not to model and report on models) is that geostrategy is an important factor in the development of human and international relations and that broadly laymen are completely ignorant of it.

A layman equipped with some of this knowledge, for example, will be much more able to understand current events in the South China Sea, the infrastructure projects across Eurasia, the proxy war in Syria, the importance of the Crimea to Russia, the crisis in America over its policies toward Cuba, and much more.

Unfortunately the layman instead is fed a steady diet of "good versus evil" narratives, informing him instead about how he should feel about each case to emotionally and financially support his military.

Re: Computer Simulations Suggest War Drove the Rise of Civilisations (2013)

#12
The older I get, the more it strikes me that civilization is inherently unstable. It may be metastable, in the way that a predator-prey relationship is stable. A technological civilization like ours is not stable. It's a conflagration. It's subject to a number of exponential processes. Our economy is based on exponentiation. If progress is based on war, then that's just another nail in the coffin. This makes for a plausible "Great Filter" solution to the Fermi Paradox. Civilizations are so unstable, they can only progress through war, which makes them more likely to destroy themselves. Perhaps civilizations almost never stay organized at the point where they are capable of star travel.

Re: Computer Simulations Suggest War Drove the Rise of Civilisations (2013)

#14

“It seems warfare created intense pressure that drove these societies.” This seems backwards. Wouldn't the intense pressure of societies bumping up against each other drive warfare, and not the other way around?

The pressure analogy seems reasonable to me. It suggests that this goes both ways:

Two societies pushing against each other lead to pressure. This pressure results in military conflict. Whoever wins the military conflict can exert increased pressure.

The necessity of winning wars put pressure on the society to develop better ways of winning wars. These better ways put more pressure on external societies, etc.

China was the most wealthy, educated civilization in the world in the 1400's. They stagnated basically becuase there was little to no fighting.

Meanwhile Europe was busy finding newer more elaborate ways to slaughter each other, and to avoid being slaughtered.

Re: Computer Simulations Suggest War Drove the Rise of Civilisations (2013)

#15
A little bit of offtopic that might be interesting to HN crowd: Peter Turchin is a son of late Valentin Turchin [1] who has quite a following in Russian Computer Science community.

Probably due to our history, there is a large amount of interest among Russians about rise and fall of civilizations. Lev Gumilyov's [2] work is something else that comes to mind, although much less mathematical.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valentin_Turchin [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lev_Gumilyov

Re: Computer Simulations Suggest War Drove the Rise of Civilisations (2013)

#17

“It seems warfare created intense pressure that drove these societies.” This seems backwards. Wouldn't the intense pressure of societies bumping up against each other drive warfare, and not the other way around?

The pressure analogy seems reasonable to me. It suggests that this goes both ways: Two societies pushing against each other lead to pressure. This pressure results in military conflict. Whoever wins the military conflict can exert increased pressure. The necessity of winning wars put pressure on the society to develop better ways of winning wars. These better ways put more pressure on external societies, etc. China w…

-> They stagnated basically because there was little to no fighting.

A fair assessment, but now I realize that another way to say this is -

They stagnated because there was little to drive innovation.

Stated this way, it at least makes us consider that there might be an alternative to constant warfare as a driver of progress. Maybe recognition of this is some kind of societal turning point as well?

Re: Computer Simulations Suggest War Drove the Rise of Civilisations (2013)

#19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The pressure analogy seems reasonable to me. It suggests that this goes both ways: Two societies pushing against each other lead to pressure. This pressure results in military conflict. Whoever wins the military conflict can exert increased pressure. The necessity of winning wars put pressure on the society to develop better ways of winning wars. These better ways put more pressure on external societies, etc. China w…

-> They stagnated basically because there was little to no fighting. A fair assessment, but now I realize that another way to say this is - They stagnated because there was little to drive innovation. Stated this way, it at least makes us consider that there might be an alternative to constant warfare as a driver of progress. Maybe recognition of this is some kind of societal turning point as well?

> alternative to constant warfare

How about the existential threat of climate change? Either way though, the driver is survival.

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