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1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

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Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#51

Post by jacquesm »

DonaldFisk wrote: post #47
gaius wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also that to manage the complexity, individuals become hyper-specialized. So when a crisis comes along, that civilization can't repurpose people quickly enough to cope.

"A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects." — Robert Heinlein

It's my favorite Heinlein quote by far and I try to live by it but in the short term there is much to be gained for an individual by specializing, specialists tend to rake in the big bucks, generalists not so much.

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#52

Post by jacquesm »

pantalaimon wrote: post #33
DonaldFisk wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Joseph Tainter's theory (The Collapse of Complex Societies) is even more general. Societies collapse when "continued investment in complexity as a problem-solving strategy yields a declining marginal return". The idea is that initially, solutions to problems are found and society becomes more complex as a result, but the benefit of the solutions exceeds the cost of the complexity. But as the society develops, the ben…

It scares me a bit that this very much describes the current situation

It shouldn't overly scare you: It required a complex society to produce someone like Tainter, so it isn't proof of imminent dark ages, merely that to be able to posit a theory like this you'd have to be alive roughly now.

Just like the future isn't equally distributed we're now so mobile that you could likely outrun a collapse of your society if you saw it coming.

You're going to have to give up some creature comforts though, and possible more than just a few.

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#53

Post by woodandsteel »

tiatia wrote: post #23
adrianratnapala wrote: post #14

I like the "it's complicated" theory, but it also a bit of a cop-out. Can we not have a meta-theory? Here are three candidates: 1) Climate change. Doesn't directly cause famines because people adapt; but the adaptation might be e.g to become wondering marauders. Thus war, destruction famine etc. 2) Technological change. Iron-working upset existing power balances. The political results were different in different plac…

"Including total collapses of civilisations." It seems to be an inherent thing of civilizations to collapse. The Collapse of Complex Societies https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Complex-Societies-Studies-Ar... The collapse of our society seem to be inevitable. You don't have to believe is but I don't think we can beat mathematics in the long term: "There is No Steady State Economy (except at a very basic level)" http://…

You might be right that our civilization is going to collapse eventually. However, in many of the advanced economies, we have had gdp growth has been separated from energy consumption for several decades.

I am more worried about the effects of advance technologies, including it getting in the hands of people like ISIS who want to take down Western Civilization.

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#54

Post by joecasson »

novaleaf wrote: post #42
OvidNaso wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Take my opinion with a grain of salt because I put this books down after only 100 pages or so, but it seemed to exemplify my main gripe with many/most popular science/non-fiction publications these days...padding. Many authors seem to have a great ~150 page thesis, but publishers push hard that best sellers are 400-600 pages.

that was my main problem with "The Lean Startup" too. it was really really hard to finish it when only 10% of the content was actionable (the rest anecdotal)

I often find myself reading about 30% of books like "The Lean Startup," and moving on. Not necessarily the first 30%, but overall. Understand the thesis, and move on.

I have yet to find a business book where this doesn't apply. I only finish the ones where I particularly like the writing style or the anecdotes.

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#56

Post by solipsism »

jsnathan wrote: post #41
KhalilK wrote: post #27

Unfortunately I can't recommend the book. It's a fascinating subject, but ... Much/most of the book is devoted to what various Eastern Mediterranean civilizations were like before the Collapse of the Late Bronze Age. It's useful as an introduction so that you can get some idea of what collapsed, but it shouldn't be most of the book. The treatment of the collapse itself is fairly shallow. I know the collapse is still…

It's funny you say that because the author addresses this at the start of the talk. He says that when it was suggested to him by a friend that he write a book about the Collapse, he agreed only on the condition that he could distinguish himself from previous publications on the same topic precisely by talking more about what the Late Bronze Age was actually like, and what was lost. He also says if he had to choose an…

Not recommending the book is not the same as blaming the author.

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#57

Post by catalinbraescu »

solipsism wrote: post #56
jsnathan wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's funny you say that because the author addresses this at the start of the talk. He says that when it was suggested to him by a friend that he write a book about the Collapse, he agreed only on the condition that he could distinguish himself from previous publications on the same topic precisely by talking more about what the Late Bronze Age was actually like, and what was lost. He also says if he had to choose an…

Not recommending the book is not the same as blaming the author.

Because books write themselves.

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#58

Post by icebraining »

jacquesm wrote: post #50
DonaldFisk wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Joseph Tainter's theory (The Collapse of Complex Societies) is even more general. Societies collapse when "continued investment in complexity as a problem-solving strategy yields a declining marginal return". The idea is that initially, solutions to problems are found and society becomes more complex as a result, but the benefit of the solutions exceeds the cost of the complexity. But as the society develops, the ben…

A direct representation of this can be found in law. Countries start out with simple laws, then as society gets more complex the laws become substantially more complex as well, to the point where tax codes, private and criminal law are no longer wholly comprehensible by any single individual. It shouldn't be a surprise that societies collapse though, everything has a life-cycle, even stars and the universe as a whole…

it would be extremely surprising if something as simple as an organization made up of fragile humans would manage to last longer than say a millennium or so.

Would it? In 868, the County of Portucale was created; in 1143 it became independent, with Vimaranes as its capital. Nowadays, Portugal is still around and Guimarães is still an important city, and while it certainly has its problems, I don't think it's in any danger of disappearing. Is it that exceptional?

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#59

Post by icebraining »

DonaldFisk wrote: post #47
gaius wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also that to manage the complexity, individuals become hyper-specialized. So when a crisis comes along, that civilization can't repurpose people quickly enough to cope.

"A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects." — Robert Heinlein

Said by a character who lived to be 2000 years old.

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#60

Post by denim_chicken »

woodandsteel wrote: post #53
tiatia wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Including total collapses of civilisations." It seems to be an inherent thing of civilizations to collapse. The Collapse of Complex Societies https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Complex-Societies-Studies-Ar... The collapse of our society seem to be inevitable. You don't have to believe is but I don't think we can beat mathematics in the long term: "There is No Steady State Economy (except at a very basic level)" http://…

You might be right that our civilization is going to collapse eventually. However, in many of the advanced economies, we have had gdp growth has been separated from energy consumption for several decades. I am more worried about the effects of advance technologies, including it getting in the hands of people like ISIS who want to take down Western Civilization.

Here's a paper published just last week titled "Is Decoupling GDP Growth from Environmental Impact Possible?" (Their answer is "no.")

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/asset?id=10.1371/jo...

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