Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is exactly how it will balance out. If this passes a threshold such that funds that take advantage of the phenomena will produce a meaningfully higher return than index funds then money will start flowing into such funds balancing out the effect.
Not just actively managed funds. There will always be proprietary traders speculating with their own or their employer's capital. As long as some kind of active investors make up ~10% of the market that will be sufficient for price discovery.
A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along
81–90 of 221 posts
Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along
#82Being lucky doesn't explain the existence of Renaissance Technologies[1], one of the very first quant fund companies, which has averaged a 71.8% annual return from 1994 through mid-2014. In fact, "the fund’s worst year was a 21 percent gain, after subtracting fees". Of course, it's very much of an outlier — just like Facebook / Google / Uber, if we retrospectively see startup funding and hedge fund investing. [1]: ht…
Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along
#83Earlier quoted context omitted.
The point of index funds isn't that at any moment in time no one can have a market beating strategy. The point of index funds is that by definition the bulk of the market can't have above average returns. So as a retail investor your best bet is to just find a cheap way to ride the average of the market.
True but some of my active funds correctly saw the problems with the UK banks and got out before the big losses an index fun would have had to buy those banks and taken the loss.
Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along
#84I'm a big believer in index funds and have been putting my money into them for a long time. But... you have to wonder where this is all ending up as more and more people move to passive index funds. The power of the market is based on millions of individual opinions on the price of a company's stock. On average, over time, these collective opinions will be correct. But say in the extreme case, it got to the point whe…
Seriously, index fund investing assumes an optimistic outlook. It assumes the managers of companies will do an OK job in the long term and the companies will grow. Index funds allow investors to participate in that growth without having a big chunk of it going into Mr. Johnson's pocket. A low fee burden turns OK company performance into acceptable retirement savings growth.
It's not a zero sum game. It's a slightly-positive-sum game. That means a lot of people can play and slightly win.
As for pricing the equities, the fundamental qualities of the businesses behind them are, even in the stock market casino of the 21st century, still important. Warren Buffet understands fundamentals. There's no reason a market dominated by index funds must ignore them.
There are two other aspects of successful index investing.
1. Diversification. Don't put all your money in one index. What if you have all your money in the NASDAQ index when the cultural narrowmindedness of Silicon Valley (the rule of young white brogrammers) catches up with them?
2. Disciplined rebalancing. Set a goal for diversification percentages: 60% growth equities, 20% growth-and-income, 10% nonUSA, 10% bonds for example. When your investment values move away from those percentages, sell the excess in one category and reinvest it in the other categories. This amounts to buy-low sell-high. It will serve as a ratchet to capture the upside and limit the downside.
Panic buying and selling is for the other guy. I'm grateful to that other guy; he's helped me set up a nice 401k balance.
Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along
#85I recommend Weathfront and Betterment to all my less mathematically inclined friends. However, if you spend only a few hours getting acquainted with asset allocation and rebalancing principles, you can do pretty everything that these services do without their fees.
Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along
#86I'm a big believer in index funds and have been putting my money into them for a long time. But... you have to wonder where this is all ending up as more and more people move to passive index funds. The power of the market is based on millions of individual opinions on the price of a company's stock. On average, over time, these collective opinions will be correct. But say in the extreme case, it got to the point whe…
Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along
#87Returns are used to quantify results, but you can't compare returns between a hedge fund or trading or market making operation - and a retail customer putting away their retirement money. Two entirely different operations at work that result in an overall annual return for each. In buying a stock, you're buying exposure to a number of factors that affect the stock price: the company, the money flows into/out of that…
Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along
#88I'm a big believer in index funds and have been putting my money into them for a long time. But... you have to wonder where this is all ending up as more and more people move to passive index funds. The power of the market is based on millions of individual opinions on the price of a company's stock. On average, over time, these collective opinions will be correct. But say in the extreme case, it got to the point whe…
but that won't happen because companies will still have to disclose financials, and companies with poor fundamentals will be shorted by arbitragers. The pricing mechanism can never go away completely
Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along
#89I'm a big believer in index funds and have been putting my money into them for a long time. But... you have to wonder where this is all ending up as more and more people move to passive index funds. The power of the market is based on millions of individual opinions on the price of a company's stock. On average, over time, these collective opinions will be correct. But say in the extreme case, it got to the point whe…
Setting Warren Buffett aside, what you neglect to mention is that the stock market is both a primary and secondary capital market. We can speculate about how to speculate... whether to be passive or active... but this concerns only the functionality of the secondary market. There's still primary market functionality: companies issue stock to raise capital, buyback stock, and issue dividends. Thus, even if all the investors are passive, there's still always one active agent in the game: the company itself. And a capitalization-weighted index is ideally suited for this activity: it automatically shifts capital away from companies buying back stock (essentially, companies returning money to investors) to those issuing new stock (essentially, companies seeking to raise capital).
Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along
#90Earlier quoted context omitted.
The point of index funds isn't that at any moment in time no one can have a market beating strategy. The point of index funds is that by definition the bulk of the market can't have above average returns. So as a retail investor your best bet is to just find a cheap way to ride the average of the market.
That's a valid point, but plenty of people do claim that "no one can have a market beating strategy". Strong EMH.
Unless there's a version of the EMH that doesn't believe in the speed of light.