Live data from Hacker News

A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along

bloomberg.com

81–90 of 221 posts

Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along

#81
post #71
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is exactly how it will balance out. If this passes a threshold such that funds that take advantage of the phenomena will produce a meaningfully higher return than index funds then money will start flowing into such funds balancing out the effect.

Not just actively managed funds. There will always be proprietary traders speculating with their own or their employer's capital. As long as some kind of active investors make up ~10% of the market that will be sufficient for price discovery.

That 10% will be insiders.

Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along

#82

Being lucky doesn't explain the existence of Renaissance Technologies[1], one of the very first quant fund companies, which has averaged a 71.8% annual return from 1994 through mid-2014. In fact, "the fund’s worst year was a 21 percent gain, after subtracting fees". Of course, it's very much of an outlier — just like Facebook / Google / Uber, if we retrospectively see startup funding and hedge fund investing. [1]: ht…

Time travel. You land in 1990, you can either try to replicate netscape/broadcast.com/yahoo/google/myspace/etc coding your heart out, or you start an investment fund and let money snowball by picking obvious winners from memory.

Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along

#83
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point of index funds isn't that at any moment in time no one can have a market beating strategy. The point of index funds is that by definition the bulk of the market can't have above average returns. So as a retail investor your best bet is to just find a cheap way to ride the average of the market.

True but some of my active funds correctly saw the problems with the UK banks and got out before the big losses an index fun would have had to buy those banks and taken the loss.

The saying is "a broken clock is right twice a day." Correctly reading and responding to market conditions is not sufficient. You have to do it continually.

Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along

#84
post #23

I'm a big believer in index funds and have been putting my money into them for a long time. But... you have to wonder where this is all ending up as more and more people move to passive index funds. The power of the market is based on millions of individual opinions on the price of a company's stock. On average, over time, these collective opinions will be correct. But say in the extreme case, it got to the point whe…

Ned Johnson had it right way back when. Why would anybody want average returns when they could pay him big money for below-average returns and the occasional black-monday disaster?

Seriously, index fund investing assumes an optimistic outlook. It assumes the managers of companies will do an OK job in the long term and the companies will grow. Index funds allow investors to participate in that growth without having a big chunk of it going into Mr. Johnson's pocket. A low fee burden turns OK company performance into acceptable retirement savings growth.

It's not a zero sum game. It's a slightly-positive-sum game. That means a lot of people can play and slightly win.

As for pricing the equities, the fundamental qualities of the businesses behind them are, even in the stock market casino of the 21st century, still important. Warren Buffet understands fundamentals. There's no reason a market dominated by index funds must ignore them.

There are two other aspects of successful index investing.

1. Diversification. Don't put all your money in one index. What if you have all your money in the NASDAQ index when the cultural narrowmindedness of Silicon Valley (the rule of young white brogrammers) catches up with them?

2. Disciplined rebalancing. Set a goal for diversification percentages: 60% growth equities, 20% growth-and-income, 10% nonUSA, 10% bonds for example. When your investment values move away from those percentages, sell the excess in one category and reinvest it in the other categories. This amounts to buy-low sell-high. It will serve as a ratchet to capture the upside and limit the downside.

Panic buying and selling is for the other guy. I'm grateful to that other guy; he's helped me set up a nice 401k balance.

Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along

#85
post #22

I recommend Weathfront and Betterment to all my less mathematically inclined friends. However, if you spend only a few hours getting acquainted with asset allocation and rebalancing principles, you can do pretty everything that these services do without their fees.

One of the two companies actually says in their FAQ (paraphrasing): "Couldn't I just invest a small amount of money with you, then manage a second much larger account myself by hand, mirroring each trade? Yes, but we think our fees are cheaper than the time you'd spend doing that."

Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along

#86
post #23

I'm a big believer in index funds and have been putting my money into them for a long time. But... you have to wonder where this is all ending up as more and more people move to passive index funds. The power of the market is based on millions of individual opinions on the price of a company's stock. On average, over time, these collective opinions will be correct. But say in the extreme case, it got to the point whe…

Alliances Bernstein wrote a Paper arguing that index fund investing is essentially communism -- letting some arbitrary authority control the economy.

Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along

#87
post #80

Returns are used to quantify results, but you can't compare returns between a hedge fund or trading or market making operation - and a retail customer putting away their retirement money. Two entirely different operations at work that result in an overall annual return for each. In buying a stock, you're buying exposure to a number of factors that affect the stock price: the company, the money flows into/out of that…

Why do you say that we can't compare the results of each? Aren't individual stock and index's competing within the same environment (same systemic and unsystemic risk factors)? Difference being that the unsystemic risk is non-existent.

Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along

#88
post #23

I'm a big believer in index funds and have been putting my money into them for a long time. But... you have to wonder where this is all ending up as more and more people move to passive index funds. The power of the market is based on millions of individual opinions on the price of a company's stock. On average, over time, these collective opinions will be correct. But say in the extreme case, it got to the point whe…

but that won't happen because companies will still have to disclose financials, and companies with poor fundamentals will be shorted by arbitragers. The pricing mechanism can never go away completely

Sure for companies that are headed to bankruptcy. But what about companies that are overpriced and cover expenses but never pay a dividend?

Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along

#89
post #23

I'm a big believer in index funds and have been putting my money into them for a long time. But... you have to wonder where this is all ending up as more and more people move to passive index funds. The power of the market is based on millions of individual opinions on the price of a company's stock. On average, over time, these collective opinions will be correct. But say in the extreme case, it got to the point whe…

Warren Buffett says it's OK, and has an excellent explanation for this. If I recall correctly: imagine you take all the investors in the US economy and put them in a room. Divide the room in halves. One side contains all the active investors, the other side contains all the passive investors. If each side owns roughly half of the economy, their returns will be equal. In that case, it's better to sit on the side with the lower fees... so one should naturally sit on the passive side.

Setting Warren Buffett aside, what you neglect to mention is that the stock market is both a primary and secondary capital market. We can speculate about how to speculate... whether to be passive or active... but this concerns only the functionality of the secondary market. There's still primary market functionality: companies issue stock to raise capital, buyback stock, and issue dividends. Thus, even if all the investors are passive, there's still always one active agent in the game: the company itself. And a capitalization-weighted index is ideally suited for this activity: it automatically shifts capital away from companies buying back stock (essentially, companies returning money to investors) to those issuing new stock (essentially, companies seeking to raise capital).

Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along

#90
post #21
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point of index funds isn't that at any moment in time no one can have a market beating strategy. The point of index funds is that by definition the bulk of the market can't have above average returns. So as a retail investor your best bet is to just find a cheap way to ride the average of the market.

That's a valid point, but plenty of people do claim that "no one can have a market beating strategy". Strong EMH.

And yet one of the assumptions of the EMH is that there are people who beat the market (using pre-public information), which is why you can't. The EMH is just saying that 31/32 teams will not win the Super Bowl.

Unless there's a version of the EMH that doesn't believe in the speed of light.

Post reply on HN