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1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

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Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#31

Post by xtiansimon »

adrianratnapala wrote: post #14

I like the "it's complicated" theory, but it also a bit of a cop-out. Can we not have a meta-theory? Here are three candidates: 1) Climate change. Doesn't directly cause famines because people adapt; but the adaptation might be e.g to become wondering marauders. Thus war, destruction famine etc. 2) Technological change. Iron-working upset existing power balances. The political results were different in different plac…

> "I like the "it's complicated" theory, but it also a bit of a cop-out. Can we not have a meta-theory?"

Isn't a "systems collapse" the meta-theory you're looking for?

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#32

Post by xtiansimon »

Great video. Thank you for posting.

Not a scholar of ancient history nor anthropology, so I'm inclined to gloss over the social mechanisms. What is fascinating to me is the application of "systems collapse" theory.

I'm thinking of two contexts. On the one hand there are complex systems; Systems too large for humans to comprehend in total. This inclines us towards abstraction, dimension reduction and model-theoretic approaches which only simulate effects.

While on the other hand we have sudden collapse of complex systems. Popular examples which come to mind include Malcolm Gladwell's "Tipping Point", cascade failure (ex. Collapse of the World Trade Center, multiple organ failure).

Now I can add 1177 BC to my list of examples.

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#33

Post by pantalaimon »

DonaldFisk wrote: post #22
adrianratnapala wrote: post #14

I like the "it's complicated" theory, but it also a bit of a cop-out. Can we not have a meta-theory? Here are three candidates: 1) Climate change. Doesn't directly cause famines because people adapt; but the adaptation might be e.g to become wondering marauders. Thus war, destruction famine etc. 2) Technological change. Iron-working upset existing power balances. The political results were different in different plac…

Joseph Tainter's theory (The Collapse of Complex Societies) is even more general. Societies collapse when "continued investment in complexity as a problem-solving strategy yields a declining marginal return". The idea is that initially, solutions to problems are found and society becomes more complex as a result, but the benefit of the solutions exceeds the cost of the complexity. But as the society develops, the ben…

It scares me a bit that this very much describes the current situation

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#34

Post by OvidNaso »

KhalilK wrote: post #27

Unfortunately I can't recommend the book. It's a fascinating subject, but ... Much/most of the book is devoted to what various Eastern Mediterranean civilizations were like before the Collapse of the Late Bronze Age. It's useful as an introduction so that you can get some idea of what collapsed, but it shouldn't be most of the book. The treatment of the collapse itself is fairly shallow. I know the collapse is still…

Take my opinion with a grain of salt because I put this books down after only 100 pages or so, but it seemed to exemplify my main gripe with many/most popular science/non-fiction publications these days...padding. Many authors seem to have a great ~150 page thesis, but publishers push hard that best sellers are 400-600 pages.

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#37

Post by Pica_soO »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #15
kowdermeister wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

+ 1: don't build major cities on fault lines.

Someone should have told David Burnham before he built SF.

I wonder, if a catastrophe is to be expected, is it cynical, to create replacement infrastructure (sewage, waterpiping, streets, electricity) at a safer location nearby and once the disaster strikes to reroute the refugee streams too that location?

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#38

Post by haalcion3 »

haalcion3 wrote: post #28
etqwzutewzu wrote: post #3

tl;dw please?

You should watch in full. It was really nice. Summary: * It is assumed that there was no single reason for the "collapse of civilization" (in Aegean, Eastern Mediterrean, Eygpt, and Near East) between ~1200-1000 BC. At the time, it seems there were droughts, famines, earthquakes, invaders, and rebellions; havoc was caused, international trade routes cut, and many cities were destroyed. * Parallels drawn at end to mod…

If any of those things happen, you'll need clean water. In addition to storing some water, you'll need a renewable supply. Though distillation is the best technique, some other options are discussed here:

http://www.practicalsurvivor.com/emergencywaterfiltration

Aside from reading how to make a filter yourself with mosses, carbon, and stones, this is one that's recommended: Sawyer Products SP191 Point Zero Two Bucket Purifier Assembly Kit with Faucet Adapter

As for shelter and heating/cooling, some interesting ideas here like using a tent indoors: https://dengarden.com/home-improvement/How-to-keep-warm-in-t...

More ideas:

http://www.bushcraftuk.com/forum/archive/index.php/t-37923.h...

http://urbansurvivalsite.com/ways-to-stay-cool-without-power...

Go solar, assuming the related equipment isn't damaged:

http://news.energysage.com/cheapest-solar-panels-price-per-w...

http://fortune.com/2016/06/13/solar-to-get-crazy-cheap/

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#39

Post by kowdermeister »

Pica_soO wrote: post #37
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone should have told David Burnham before he built SF.

I wonder, if a catastrophe is to be expected, is it cynical, to create replacement infrastructure (sewage, waterpiping, streets, electricity) at a safer location nearby and once the disaster strikes to reroute the refugee streams too that location?

I'd call that responsible instead of cynical. If you know in advance that an asteroid is about to hit Earth, except the exact location you'd do the same.

In the case of SF, an entire continent is approaching very-very-very slowly.

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#40

Post by mathattack »

OvidNaso wrote: post #34
KhalilK wrote: post #27

Unfortunately I can't recommend the book. It's a fascinating subject, but ... Much/most of the book is devoted to what various Eastern Mediterranean civilizations were like before the Collapse of the Late Bronze Age. It's useful as an introduction so that you can get some idea of what collapsed, but it shouldn't be most of the book. The treatment of the collapse itself is fairly shallow. I know the collapse is still…

Take my opinion with a grain of salt because I put this books down after only 100 pages or so, but it seemed to exemplify my main gripe with many/most popular science/non-fiction publications these days...padding. Many authors seem to have a great ~150 page thesis, but publishers push hard that best sellers are 400-600 pages.

I recall someone commenting that most non-fiction books have only 15 minutes of true comment. The rest is commentary and persuasion.

I used to feel awful if I did t finish a book because the author created it with a certain vision. As I get older I've realized how limited my time is, and I am more content with a quick skim for many.

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