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All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

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Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#961
post #629

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see this pro cross-talk argument all the time... but wouldn't that leave open a big vulnerability for bad actors to send false data between cars and, if they should choose to, control multiple vehicles and cause collisions?

It's part of the growing myth that is "self driving cars". People seem to hand-wave and make up what these supposed future self driving cars will do - and worse, they hand-wave and assert they'll be objectively better at X than humans, without any evidence to backup the assertion. Self driving cars are made by fallible humans using fallible programming languages and constructs. They can't possibly account for every s…

> they'll be objectively better at X than humans, without any evidence to backup the assertion.

Google's road tested self driving car is already safer[1] than a human driving. Suggesting that a computer will be a more reliable processor of data and computer of maths than a human is not something which needs data to back it up. The ability of drivers is so variable and in the aggregate there are so many of them that it's almost self-evident that a self driving car which crosses a very low threshold for entry ("being road legal") will be better than a human.

> They can't possibly account for every situation or scenario - but people hand-wave and say it magically will.

Nobody is saying that they will any more than people argue that autopilot on a plane will. It's very plain to see that right now, as of this second, there is a self-driving car which is safer than a human driver. It is not yet legal to buy, but it doesn't change the fact that it's safer. It may be that a bug crops up which kills a few people. But that doesn't make it less safe, it makes the cause of death for some of the users different to "human error".

[1]http://bigthink.com/ideafeed/googles-self-driving-car-is-rid...

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#962
post #366
post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Data collection that would take years can happen in weeks" I think that we are talking days, not weeks, or probably that Teslas can have multiple teams testing various hardware and algorithms at the same time: Tesla plans on producing 500k cars per year from 2018. If all of them have this equipment, and they drive a conservative 10k miles per year in average, Tesla will gather data from 5 billion miles driven after…

I don't know if any amount of data collection and model refinement will allow self driving in ALL situations. We always see self driving demos in California on very large roads, I'd like to see one in a small crowded street of Napoli or on a crossroad in Ho-Chi Minh.

Or anywhere in India:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjrEQaG5jPM

Edit:

This video from a motorcyle gives a nice first-person perspective:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqOLehUdqkU

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#963

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we're continuing the iPhone metaphor from the GP, note that Apple is almost always late to a market segment. When the iPhone was released, Windows CE had owned the smartphone segment for years. The iPod was hardly the first hard drive mp3 player. Apple Watch wasn't the first smart watch. Etc etc etc. Apple makes good products, not innovative ones. It is not at all unthinkable that someone else will release a bette…

The iPhone was the first smartphone without a physical keyboard, allowing for a much more functional screen in a convenient form factor, right? I recall it seeming like a non-trivial difference at the time, and clearly a game-changing one.

I had a Sony Ericsson P800 in 2003: http://cdn2.gsmarena.com/vv/pics/sonyericsson/snp800_00.jpg

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#964

> "The person in the driver seat is only there for legal reasons" > Person gets out and let's car park itself But seriously the tech is very impressive. The journey was rather simple though, and didn't cover more difficult areas (inner city driving, heavy stop start traffic, roadblocks, road accidents and so on). I hope that Tesla test these things thoroughly because they've already got one death under their belt, it…

Though the one death was partly human error. You're still supposed to watch where you're going with the present system https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jul/01/tesla-dri...

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#965

Isn't this hackernews?? So many "but what if this and that and this..." & "and yeah let's see if it can handle X & Y" This is the iPhone 1 of self-driving cars! That's akin to saying Apple should have waited to release their phone until iPhone 7 "because of this & that & this..." Don't we have to start somewhere ?? Aren't there supposed to be a big user base here who understands that it's an evolutionary process - we…

I laughed out loud when I googled "tsla" after watching the video and the top headline in the news section of the google results was "Analyst doubts the new move by Tesla Motors." Clicking on the article for humor's value, I continued to read: > However, Edmunds.com, Inc. analyst Jessica Caldwell questions the value of purchasing a self-driving car before regulations catch up. Caldwell said that, meanwhile, competito…

Very grateful to misunderstandings like this. It had caused Tesla and several tech stocks to be severely undervalued in the market. At 40$, I knew Tesla was worth 140$. And sure enough it started to go up suddenly mostly because of media coverage.

Traditional car investors look at certain tried and proven market indicators to judge stocks. When new tech comes along, they don't know what to think. So they think here and there like in this case.

The real value in bringing self driving tech here is to provide cool features to the buyer, not necessarily bring the stock of the company up. If investors do not know how how to place value on this, I only shrug.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#966
post #899

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A tiny enterprise that took on the old Detroit giants and is winning In what way are they "winning" against Detroit? Certainly not in revenues, profits, miles driven or cars produced. Yes, they "own" one segment": high end electric vehicles. No one there is close. But Detroit owns many others. Why does the one that Tesla dominates carry so much weight?

Tesla's market cap is $30bn, more than Renault, Mazda, Chrystler or Subaru ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9055885 ). If they execute well on the Gigafactory, they may apply a multiplier on this market cap, reaching above Toyota ($200bn), even with a tenth or a hundredth of their production. Why would it be more valued, per car produced? Because of its future potential. > Why does the segment that Tesla domina…

>Tesla's market cap is $30bn

I'm not sure how having a disproportionately high market cap indicates "beating" anyone. It's the whim of the markets.

>If they execute well on the Gigafactory, they may apply a multiplier on this market cap, reaching above Toyota ($200bn)

Based on what, exactly? This is Silicon Valley math. Who on earth is going to pay Toyota prices for a company that you yourself say might only have a fraction of the production? What sort of investment would that be?

I know this is taboo around here, but one day high-growth slows and companies become "established" and it's about how much money they make and return to shareholders. If Tesla is making as many cars as Toyota and as much profit is Toyota, then they'll be priced like Toyota. Why would it be any other way?

>So all Detroit/Toyota industries are slowly shrinking in comparison to Tesla

There were over 70 millions cars sold in 2015. Tesla delivered about 50 thousand, for about a 0.07% market share. Are you surprised that they are able to grow relative to specific players in a massive industry?

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#967
post #787

I had hoped to see this technology occur in my lifetime, I said to myself "I hope I live to see the day" a few years ago. Here it is in 2016, obviously its just a highly controlled demo but it has connected the dots. I'm confident the technology is there and the hardest work will be overcoming legislation and politics. But does anyone else find this bittersweet? I had an awesome moment of pride for what Tesla and Elo…

The legislation and politics bit has been surprisingly easy going and if anything seems to be leaning to forcing safety systems onto people rather than banning them. The bigger problem still seems to be making the systems work reliably.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#968

I get that tech companies want self-driving cars really bad because they smell billions of dollars in "disruption" but no matter how good AI gets, I have a suspicion it won't actually do better than a decent human driver can do. It's not about processing speed, it's about experience and reflexes, which granted, not everyone has. Let's see a self-driving car win a Formula 1 race--and even that controlled racetrack env…

>Let's see a self-driving car win a Formula 1 race

Aside from the obvious that you or I probably couldn't win an F1 race either, autonomous race cars are coming along - one beat a top driver at Thunderhill Raceway Park in Northern California last year. Not F1 but give it time. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/science-news/1141026...

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#969

I get that tech companies want self-driving cars really bad because they smell billions of dollars in "disruption" but no matter how good AI gets, I have a suspicion it won't actually do better than a decent human driver can do. It's not about processing speed, it's about experience and reflexes, which granted, not everyone has. Let's see a self-driving car win a Formula 1 race--and even that controlled racetrack env…

>Let's see a self-driving car win a Formula 1 race

Aside from the obvious that you or I probably couldn't win as F1 race either, autonomous race cars are coming along - one beat a top driver at Thunderhill Raceway Park in Northern California last year. Not F1 but give it time. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/science-news/1141026...

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#970

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I laughed out loud when I googled "tsla" after watching the video and the top headline in the news section of the google results was "Analyst doubts the new move by Tesla Motors." Clicking on the article for humor's value, I continued to read: > However, Edmunds.com, Inc. analyst Jessica Caldwell questions the value of purchasing a self-driving car before regulations catch up. Caldwell said that, meanwhile, competito…

No surprise since Edmunds makes money off of everyone except Tesla (no advertising, no dealers, no comparison shopping that converts to lead gen). "How does Edmunds make money? Edmunds sells advertising to marketers who have contextually relevant messages for site visitors. Also, car-shoppers who visit Edmunds have the opportunity to request price quotes from dealers and providers of insurance, financing and extended…

My anecdote: I discovered Edmunds because of their review of first Tesla sedan. It was for me, a technically inclined but nevertheless technically naive reader, the best car review I've ever read.
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