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All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

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Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#771

Post by petra »

JulianMorrison wrote: post #733
V-2 wrote: post #657

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's going to be a war of lobbies, with "traditional" automotive companies spreading FUD, and insurance companies pressuring for faster adoption. It's worth mentioning - which I already hinted at in another comment - that self-driving cars, awesome as this is, will be yet another area where our privacy gets compromised, same as with mobile phones. This will push governments to favour it in the long run and ev…

I doubt traditional auto companies will spread FUD at first, they are gonna see this as the next shiny new thing. This is their tape -> CD moment, everyone needs to replace their hardware, it's a bonanza. When they truly understand that it's going to turn them all into taxi makers, that owning a car is completely passé, they'll panic. That will be their DVD -> streaming moment, but it will already be too late.

>> When they truly understand that it's going to turn them all into taxi makers

I'm sure they understand that. Some even do moves in that direction, like Ford ackuiring chariot, the shared ride provider, and Mercedes collaborating with Via.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#772

Post by branchless »

dyarosla wrote: post #576
georgespencer wrote: post #543

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These are problems which are actually improved as more cars move to autonomous driving. A sensible government would mandate that manufacturers must upload anonymised data about each car in real time, which would effectively allow for cross-talk between cars. This could enable automatic remedies to the above situations (car X tells car Y "I've got more room behind me, let me reverse), but also prevent them in the firs…

I see this pro cross-talk argument all the time... but wouldn't that leave open a big vulnerability for bad actors to send false data between cars and, if they should choose to, control multiple vehicles and cause collisions?

It can be signed. The real issue is going to be buying a car that has an upgrade for important people so the plebs must wait.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#773

Post by ethbro »

vkou wrote: post #724
aerovistae wrote: post #617

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I laughed out loud when I googled "tsla" after watching the video and the top headline in the news section of the google results was "Analyst doubts the new move by Tesla Motors." Clicking on the article for humor's value, I continued to read: > However, Edmunds.com, Inc. analyst Jessica Caldwell questions the value of purchasing a self-driving car before regulations catch up. Caldwell said that, meanwhile, competito…

> It's just hilarious the contortions of logic people will go to in order to put Musk down. It's probably because there is a substantial gap between what Musk spins, and reality. Take Tesla 3 pre-orders, for instance. Tesla spins 400,000 pre-orders for a car that you might not receive in the next three years as the most amazing innovation in automobile manufacturing. Historically, there have been a few other companie…

I've seen some sources that the original Volkswagen Beetle had upwards of 150,000 pre-orders. But then WWII happened and none of them were delivered to civilians until the company was resurrected after the war.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#774

Post by mikeash »

bluehawk wrote: post #757
mikeash wrote: post #526

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once autonomous cars are ubiquitous, it should be possible to increase speed limits substantially above where they are now, since the autonomous cars will have instantaneous reaction times.

Instantaneous response times doesn't stop the laws of physics. It still takes longer to stop the faster you are going.

Of course, but with instantaneous reaction times you can achieve the same stopping distance at higher speeds. If it takes one second for a driver to start braking when something happens (which is about the average) then a human driver going 65MPH will have the same stopping distance as an autonomous car going 78MPH.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#775

Post by vkou »

drcross wrote: post #734
vkou wrote: post #724

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's just hilarious the contortions of logic people will go to in order to put Musk down. It's probably because there is a substantial gap between what Musk spins, and reality. Take Tesla 3 pre-orders, for instance. Tesla spins 400,000 pre-orders for a car that you might not receive in the next three years as the most amazing innovation in automobile manufacturing. Historically, there have been a few other companie…

>what Musk spins, and reality. The reality is that they are the first serious electric car company. A tiny enterprise that took on the old Detroit giants and is winning. When you see people putting down hard earned cash for something three years into the future, they are not being tricked, they are investing in disruption. He's such a terrible orator you couldn't describe him as a charlatan. It's his actions and peop…

I'm not at all implying that the money will go poof. What I do mean is that inability to meet demand is actually an incredibly serious problem for a car manufacturer - one that's more closely associated with failing Soviet enterprises, regardless of spin to the contrary. Having three years of cars in your backlog isn't winning. Waiting three years for your car to arrive isn't revolutionary.

Meanwhile, Detroit produces more cars then that in two weeks.

Tesla might win eventually, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#776

Post by blhack »

hipshaker wrote: post #570

Isn't this hackernews?? So many "but what if this and that and this..." & "and yeah let's see if it can handle X & Y" This is the iPhone 1 of self-driving cars! That's akin to saying Apple should have waited to release their phone until iPhone 7 "because of this & that & this..." Don't we have to start somewhere ?? Aren't there supposed to be a big user base here who understands that it's an evolutionary process - we…

Step 1) Get Haters

Step 2) Get paid

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#777

Post by bnycum »

usaphp wrote: post #703
bnycum wrote: post #676

I was thinking of this idea the other day when I came to an intersection where a stop sign had been hit. It was now bent in a way that faced the highway that did not have to stop. I was on a highway with no stop signs or lights for miles. What would the self driving car do in that situation? For both sides of the intersection. Then I thought about another intersection by my old house. For years the cross street had t…

> "It was now bent in a way that faced the highway that did not have to stop." Did you know about it because you saw it being bent or because you drove there before and knew that there should be a stop sign?

I had driven it many times before. To a human the whole situation would seem pretty close to obvious as to who should and shouldn't stop.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#778

Post by tvural »

hipshaker wrote: post #570

Isn't this hackernews?? So many "but what if this and that and this..." & "and yeah let's see if it can handle X & Y" This is the iPhone 1 of self-driving cars! That's akin to saying Apple should have waited to release their phone until iPhone 7 "because of this & that & this..." Don't we have to start somewhere ?? Aren't there supposed to be a big user base here who understands that it's an evolutionary process - we…

The difference between this and the Iphone 1 is that the technology is not there yet for fully autonomous cars, and it's unclear you can get there just by trying really hard and spending lots of money. Fully self-driving cars wouldn't just have to stay in their lane on the freeway, they would have to make the decisions during edge-case driving situations that a human would. That means knowing to slow down when a ball rolls across the road, reading people's hand signals, responding correctly when a police car tries to stop traffic on the freeway, etc. I'm not sure how you even begin to handle cases like that. Our driving situation was designed for humans, so you would have to make the algorithm "think like a human" and understand all our wierd idiosyncrasies. So far, machine learning has had very little luck with trying to similate human decision-making.

What Tesla has done so far with "autopilot" is a big deal, but releasing a "video of a car driving itself" is the classic marketing trick with machine learning, where you cherry pick aituations in which your system does well, and most people don't second guess it.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#779

Post by petra »

randomdata wrote: post #572
scraft wrote: post #475

Interesting for two reasons: 1. It is a self driving car, it is so clearly the future, I wish it existed now, it is going to be awesome (in my opinion). 2. Despite knowing about and following news about driverless cars for a while, there was something surprisingly (to me) compelling about watching the video. It's like you get a little taste of the full A to B that it can give you (door to door). Who wants to speculat…

> Who wants to speculate how long it will be until self-driving cars are common place in the UK? I think we can apply the Pareto principle here. The car seems to work surprisingly well in ideal conditions, but probably doesn't in less than ideal ones (let's see it operating in a snow storm!). So, let's say that 80% of the work is done, leaving 20% to fix all the little edge cases that are bound to pop in the real wor…

So soon, we'll all be driven autonomously 80% of the time, and 20% of the time, some guy will drive. At that ratio, it seems on-demand transportation wins over cars, and the end result is the same - we don't drive.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#780

Post by undersuit »

artursapek wrote: post #728
nickjarboe wrote: post #639

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe the cars will be safe enough we can get rid of those restrictive laws.

It's not just about safety - a car seat is not ergonomically designed to accommodate a toddler.

>a car seat is not ergonomically designed to accommodate a toddler.

Neither are church pews, why are you worried about ergonomically designed seats for toddlers? Daily 8 hour car rides?

Or is it along the lines you are worried you won't be paying enough attention to your child and something horrible could... while you are not driving?

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